Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction • Hacker News Board

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#381

Post by fooker » Thu, Jan 22, 2026, 12:17 PM UTC

thworp wrote: post #362

aswegs8 wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure why this "GPUs obsolete after 3 years" gets thrown around all the time. Sounds completely nonsensical.

A toy example: NeoCloud Inc builds a new datacenter full of the new H800 GPUs. It rents out a rack of them for $10/minute while paying $6/minute for electricity, interest, loan repayment, rent and staff. Two years later, H900 is released for a similar price but it performs twice as many TFlOps/Watt. Now any datacenter using H900 can offer the same performance as NeoCloud Inc at $5/month, taking all their customers. […

It really depends on how long `NeoCloud` takes to recoup their capital expenditure on the H800s.

Current estimates are about 1.5-2 years, which not-so-suspiciously coincides with your toy example.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#382

Post by pjmlp » Thu, Jan 22, 2026, 3:56 PM UTC

_fat_santa wrote: post #11

This article goes more into the technical analysis of the stock rather than the underlying business fundamentals that would lead to a stock dump. My 30k ft view is that the stock will inevitably slide as AI datacenter spending goes down. Right now Nvidia is flying high because datacenters are breaking ground everywhere but eventually that will come to an end as the supply of compute goes up. The counterargument to th…

Even though I like CUDA, I think the point is when do compute centers reach the point that they can run their workloads with other vendors, or custom accelerators.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#383

Post by pjmlp » Thu, Jan 22, 2026, 4:01 PM UTC

zozbot234 wrote: post #313

bigyabai wrote: post #306

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> there's OpenCL and Vulkan as well OpenCL is chronically undermaintained & undersupported, and Vulkan only covers a small subset of what CUDA does so far. Neither has the full support of the tech industry (though both are supported by Nvidia, ironically). It feels like nobody in the industry wants to beat Nvidia badly enough, yet. Apple and AMD are trying to supplement raster hardware with inference silicon; both of…

The modern successor to OpenCL is SYCL and there's been some limited convergence with Vulkan Compute (they're still based on distinct programming models and even SPIR-V varieties under the hood, but the distance is narrowing somewhat).

Which is basically Intel for practical purposes.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#384

Post by pjmlp » Thu, Jan 22, 2026, 4:02 PM UTC

irishcoffee wrote: post #333

bigyabai wrote: post #288

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Intel's GPU designs make AMD look world-class by comparison. Outside of transcode applications, those Arc cards aren't putting up a fight.

...if you can't be with the one you love, love the one you're with?

Intel's GPU story all their life.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#385

Post by readthenotes1 » Sat, Jan 24, 2026, 7:04 PM UTC

gertlex wrote: post #197

readthenotes1 wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It also tanked to ~$90 when Trump announced tariffs on all goods for Taiwan except semiconductors. I don't know if that's non-rational, or if people can't be expected to read the second sentence of an announcement before panicking.

This was also on top of claims (Jan 2025) that Deepseek showed that "we don't actually need as much GPU, thus NVidia is less needed"; at least it was my impression this was one of the (now silly-seeming) reasons NVDA dropped then.

It had already recovered from the DeepSeek head fake iirc