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Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

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Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#191

Post by immibis »

seawsurf wrote: post #99
coffeebeqn wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But is not NVIDIA more of a software company than a hardware one? No? That’s why they have almost no competition. Hardware starting costs are astronomical

But the actual manufacturing foundry is TSMC no? And they create the whole software environment based on their chips.

It costs eight figures to create the masks (patterns) to use in the process of creating a modern chip. Just because it doesn't cost the eleven figures of the factory itself doesn't make it cheap.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#192

Post by Joel_Mckay »

4fterd4rk wrote: post #40
incomingpain wrote: post #33

Nvidia PE ratio: 44 I do hope they crash so that I can buy as much as possible at a discount.

Them being far above the median PE ratio for the S&P 500 tells you that a future correction would be a discount and you should buy? Please walk me through your logic on this one.

Every gambler thinks they can time the market, and buy the dip.

In general, they often get stung by the dead cat bounce, =3

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_cat_bounce

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#193

Post by swalsh »

mnky9800n wrote: post #53
_fat_santa wrote: post #11

This article goes more into the technical analysis of the stock rather than the underlying business fundamentals that would lead to a stock dump. My 30k ft view is that the stock will inevitably slide as AI datacenter spending goes down. Right now Nvidia is flying high because datacenters are breaking ground everywhere but eventually that will come to an end as the supply of compute goes up. The counterargument to th…

I really don't understand the argument that nvidia GPUs only work for 1-3 years. I am currently using A100s and H100s every day. Those aren't exactly new anymore.

If power is the bottleneck, it may make business sense to rotate to a GPU that better utilizes the same power if the newer generation gives you a significant advantage.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#194

Post by pixl97 »

fooker wrote: post #146
mbrumlow wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not that they don’t work. It’s how businesses handle hardware. I worked at a few data centers on and off in my career. I got lots of hardware for free or on the cheap simply because the hardware was considered “EOL” after about 3 years, often when support contracts with the vendor ends. There are a few things to consider. Hardware that ages produce more errors, and those errors cost, one way or another. Rack spa…

I’ll be so happy to buy a EOL H100! But no, there’s none to be found, it is a 4 year, two generations old machine at this point and you can’t buy one used at a rate cheaper than new.

Well demand is so high currently that it's likely this cycle doesn't exist yet for fast cards.

For servers I've seen where the slightly used equipment is sold in bulk to a bidder and they may have a single large client buy all of it.

Then around the time the second cycle comes around it's split up in lots and a bunch ends up at places like ebay

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#195

Post by Joel_Mckay »

linkregister wrote: post #153
incomingpain wrote: post #33

Nvidia PE ratio: 44 I do hope they crash so that I can buy as much as possible at a discount.

This implies you think a crash would be a temporary mispricing of the stock, which will recover in value, correct?

While I am no fan of NVIDIA, they are effectively a Monopoly for CUDA GPU.

This means that cash revenue will likely remain high long after the LLM hype bubble undergoes correction. The market will eventually saturate as incremental product improvements stall, and demand rolls off rather than implodes. =3

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#196

Post by Forgeties79 »

selfhoster11 wrote: post #178
iLoveOncall wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> short of major algorithmic breakthroughs I am not convinced the global demand for GPUs will drop any time soon Or, you know, when LLMs don't pay off.

They already are paying off. The nature of LLMs means that they will require expensive, fast hardware that's a large capex.

Where? Who’s in the black?

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#197

Post by gertlex »

readthenotes1 wrote: post #164
lairv wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

NVIDIA stock tanked in 2025 when people learned that Google used TPUs to train Gemini, which everyone in the community knows since at least 2021. So I think it's very likely that NVIDIA stock could crash for non-rationale reasons edit: 2025* not 2024

It also tanked to ~$90 when Trump announced tariffs on all goods for Taiwan except semiconductors. I don't know if that's non-rational, or if people can't be expected to read the second sentence of an announcement before panicking.

This was also on top of claims (Jan 2025) that Deepseek showed that "we don't actually need as much GPU, thus NVidia is less needed"; at least it was my impression this was one of the (now silly-seeming) reasons NVDA dropped then.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#198

Post by pixl97 »

mikkupikku wrote: post #149
dylan604 wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>offset buying a new one every one to three years? Isn't that precisely how leasing works? Also, don't companies prefer not to own hardware for tax purposes? I've worked for several places where they leased compute equipment with upgrades coming at the end of each lease.

Who wants to buy GPUs that were redlined for three years in a data center? Maybe there's a market for those, but most people already seem wary of lightly used GPUs from other consumers, let alone GPUs that were burning in a crypto farm or AI data center for years.

Depending on the discount, a lot of people.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#199

Post by Melatonic »

belval wrote: post #172
whaleofatw2022 wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let's also not forget the set of miners that either overclock or dont really care about long term in how they set up thermals

Miners usually don't overclock though. If anything underclocking is the best way to improve your ROI because it significantly reduces the power consumption while retaining most of the hashrate.

Exactly - more specifically undervolting. You want the minimum volts going to the card with it still performing decently.

Even in amateur setups the amount of power used is a huge factor (because of the huge draw from the cards themselves and AC units to cool the room) so minimising heat is key.

From what I remember most cards (even CPUs as well) hit peak efficiency when undervolted and hitting somewhere around 70-80% max load (this also depends on cooling setup). First thing to wear out would probably be the fan / cooler itself (repasting occasionally would of course help with this as thermal paste dries out with both time and heat)

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#200

Post by pixl97 »

lazide wrote: post #165
zozbot234 wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can sell the old, less efficient GPUs to folks who will be running them with markedly lower duty cycles (so, less emphasis on direct operational costs), e.g. for on-prem inference or even just typical workstation/consumer use. It ends up being a win-win trade.

Then you’re dealing with a lot of labor to do the switches (and arrange sales of used equipment), plus capital float costs while you do it. It can make sense at a certain scale, but it’s a non trivial amount of cost and effort for potentially marginal returns.

Building a new data center and getting power takes years to double your capacity. Swapping out out a rack that is twice as fast takes very little time in comparison.
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