NVIDIA Vera Rubin NVL72 unveiled at CES makes any other computer look like a pocket calculator, and that's why I wouldn't want to be bearish on NVDA right now, see https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/data-center/vera-rubin-nvl72
Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction
201–210 of 385 posts
Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction
#202This article goes more into the technical analysis of the stock rather than the underlying business fundamentals that would lead to a stock dump. My 30k ft view is that the stock will inevitably slide as AI datacenter spending goes down. Right now Nvidia is flying high because datacenters are breaking ground everywhere but eventually that will come to an end as the supply of compute goes up. The counterargument to th…
How much did you short the stock?
Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction
#203Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's the opposite actually - most GPU used for mining are run at a consistent temp and load which is good for long term wear. Peaky loads where the GPU goes from cold to hot and back leads to more degradation because of changes in thermal expansion. This has been known for some time now.
That is commonly repeated idea, but it doesn't take into account countless token farms which are smaller than a datacenter. Basically anything from a single MB with 8 cards to a small shed with rigs, all of which tend to disregard common engineering practices and run hardware into a ground to maximize output until next police raid or difficulty bump. Plenty of photos in the internet of crappy rigs like that, and no o…
While I'm sure there are small amateur setups done poorly that push cards to their limits this seems like a more rare and inefficient use. GPUS (even used) are expensive and running them at maximum would require large costs and time to be replacing them regularly. Not to mention the increased cost of cooling and power.
Not sure I understand the police raid mentality - why are the police raiding amateur crypto mining setups ?
I can totally see cards used by casual amateurs being very worn / used though - especially your example of single mobo miners who were likely also using the card for gaming and other tasks.
I would imagine that anyone purposely running hardware into the ground would be running cheaper / more efficient ASICS vs expensive Nvidia GPUs since they are much easier and cheaper to replace. I would still be surprised however if most were not proritising temps and cooling
Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction
#204Earlier quoted context omitted.
Not saying your wrong. A few things to consider: (1) We simply don't know what the useful life is going to be because of how new the advancements of AI focused GPUs used for training and inference. (2) Warranties and service. Most enterprise hardware has service contracts tied to purchases. I haven't seen anything publicly disclosed about what these contracts look like, but the speculation is that they are much more…
Nvidia is moving to a 1 year release life cycle for data center, and in Jensen's words once a new gen is released you lose money for being on the older hardware. It makes no longer financially sense to run it.
That will come back to bite them in the ass if money leaves the AI race.
Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction
#205Earlier quoted context omitted.
> My 30k ft view is that the stock will inevitably slide as AI datacenter spending goes down. Their stock trajectory started with one boom (cryptocurrencies) and then seamlessly progressed to another (AI). You're basically looking at a decade of "number goes up". So yeah, it will probably come down eventually (or the inflation will catch up), but it's a poor argument for betting against them right now. Meanwhile, the…
Crypto & AI can both be linked to part of a broader trend though, that we need processors capable of running compute on massive sets of data quickly. I don't think that will ever go down, whether some new tech emerges or we just continue shoveling LLMs into everything. Imagine the compute needed to allow every person on earth to run a couple million tokens through a model like Anthropic Opus every day.
Agreed, single thread performance increases are dead and things are moving to massively parallel processing.
Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction
#206Earlier quoted context omitted.
That's the rub - it's clearly overvalued and will readjust... the question is when. If you can figure out when precisely then you've won the lottery, for everyone else it's a game of chicken where for "a while" money that you put into it will have a good return. Everyone would love if that lasted forever so there is a strong momentum preventing that market correction.
It was overvalued when crypto was happening too, but another boom took its place. Of course, lightening rarely strikes twice and all that, but it proves overvalued doesn’t mean the price is guaranteed to go down it seems. Predicting the future is hard.
As they say, the market can remain irrational far longer than you can remain solvent.
Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction
#207Earlier quoted context omitted.
They already are paying off. The nature of LLMs means that they will require expensive, fast hardware that's a large capex.
They aren’t yet because the big providers that paid for all of this GPU capacity aren’t profitable yet. They continually leap frog each other and shift around customers which indicates that the current capacity is already higher than what is required for what people actually pay for.
Google, Amazon, and Microsoft aren’t profitable?
Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction
#208Earlier quoted context omitted.
Not sure why this "GPUs obsolete after 3 years" gets thrown around all the time. Sounds completely nonsensical.
It's because they run 24/7 in a challenging environment. They will start dying at some point and if you aren't replacing them you will have a big problem when they all die en masse at the same time. These things are like cars, they don't last forever and break down with usage. Yes, they can last 7 years in your home computer when you run it 1% of the time. They won't last that long in a data center where they are run…
A makeshift cryptomining rig is absolutely a "challenging environment" and most GPUs by far that went through that are just fine. The idea that the hardware might just die after 3 years' usage is bonkers.
Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction
#209Earlier quoted context omitted.
Let's also not forget the set of miners that either overclock or dont really care about long term in how they set up thermals
Miners usually don't overclock though. If anything underclocking is the best way to improve your ROI because it significantly reduces the power consumption while retaining most of the hashrate.
Wouldn't the exact same considerations apply to AI training/inference shops, seeing as gigawatts are usually the key constraint?
Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction
#210This article goes more into the technical analysis of the stock rather than the underlying business fundamentals that would lead to a stock dump. My 30k ft view is that the stock will inevitably slide as AI datacenter spending goes down. Right now Nvidia is flying high because datacenters are breaking ground everywhere but eventually that will come to an end as the supply of compute goes up. The counterargument to th…
NVIDIA stock tanked in 2025 when people learned that Google used TPUs to train Gemini, which everyone in the community knows since at least 2021. So I think it's very likely that NVIDIA stock could crash for non-rationale reasons edit: 2025* not 2024
Google did not use TPUs for literally every bit of compute that led to Gemini. GCP has millions of high end Nvidia GPUs and programming for them is an order of magnitude easier, even for googlers.
Any claim from google that all of Gemini (including previous experiments) was trained entirely by TPUs is lies. What they are truthfully saying is that the final training run was done on all TPUs. The market shouldn’t react heavily to this, but instead should react positively to the fact that google is now finally selling TPUs externally and their fab yields are better than expected.