Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction • Hacker News Board

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#121

Post by jama211 » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 6:10 PM UTC

galaxyLogic wrote: post #100

Ekaros wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At this point computation is in essence commodity. And commodities have demand cycles. If other economic factors slowdown or companies go out of business they stop using compute or start less new products that use compute. Thus it is entirely realistic to me that demand for compute might go down. Or that we are just now over provisioning compute in short or medium term.

I wonder, is the quality of AI answers going up over time or not? Last weekend I spent a lot of time with Preplexity trying to understand why my SeqTrack device didn't do what I wanted it to do and seems Perplexity had a wrong idea of how the buttons on the device are laid out, so it gave me wrong or confusing answers. I spent literally hours trying to feed it different prompts to get an answer that would solve my pr…

Always worth trying a different model, especially if you’re using a free one. I wouldn’t take one data point to seriously either.

The data is very strongly showing the quality of AI answers is rapidly improving. If you want a good example, check out the sixty symbols video by Brady Haran, where they revisited getting AI to answer a quantum physics exam after trying the same thing 3 years ago. The improvement is IMMENSE and unavoidable.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#122

Post by mbesto » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 6:11 PM UTC

mnky9800n wrote: post #53

_fat_santa wrote: post #11

This article goes more into the technical analysis of the stock rather than the underlying business fundamentals that would lead to a stock dump. My 30k ft view is that the stock will inevitably slide as AI datacenter spending goes down. Right now Nvidia is flying high because datacenters are breaking ground everywhere but eventually that will come to an end as the supply of compute goes up. The counterargument to th…

I really don't understand the argument that nvidia GPUs only work for 1-3 years. I am currently using A100s and H100s every day. Those aren't exactly new anymore.

Not saying your wrong. A few things to consider:

(1) We simply don't know what the useful life is going to be because of how new the advancements of AI focused GPUs used for training and inference.

(2) Warranties and service. Most enterprise hardware has service contracts tied to purchases. I haven't seen anything publicly disclosed about what these contracts look like, but the speculation is that they are much more aggressive (3 years or less) than typical enterprise hardware contracts (Dell, HP, etc.). If it gets past those contracts the extended support contracts can typically get really pricey.

(3) Power efficiency. If new GPUs are more power efficient this could be huge savings on energy that could necessitate upgrades.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#123

Post by jwoods19 » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 6:11 PM UTC

marricks wrote: post #59

baxtr wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I no AI fanboy at all. I think it there won’t be AGI anytime soon. However, it’s beyond my comprehension how anyone would think that we will see a decline in demand growth for compute. AI will conquer the world like software or the smartphone did. It’ll get implemented everywhere, more people will use it. We’re super early in the penetration so far.

> I no AI fanboy at all. While thinking computers will replace human brains soon is rabid fanaticism this statement... > AI will conquer the world like software or the smartphone did. Also displays a healthy amount of fanaticism.

Even suggesting that computers will replace human brains brings up a moral and ethical question. If the computer is just as smart as a person, then we need to potentially consider that the computer has rights.

As far as AI conquering the world. It needs a "killer app". I don't think we'll really see that until AR glasses that happen to include AI. If it can have context about your day, take action on your behalf, and have the same battery life as a smartphone...

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#124

Post by Ronsenshi » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 6:13 PM UTC

infecto wrote: post #103

Ronsenshi wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What if its penetration ends up being on the same level as modern crypto? Average person doesn't seem to particularly care about meme coins or bitcoin - it is not being actively used in day to day setting, there's no signs of this status improving. Doesn't mean that crypto is not being used, of course. Plenty of people do use things like USDT, gamble on bitcoin or try to scam people with new meme coins, but this is f…

I have still been unable to see how folks connect AI to Crypto. Crypto never connected with real use cases. There are some edge cases and people do use it but there is not a core use. AI is different and businesses are already using it a lot. Of course there is hype, it’s not doing all the things the talking heads said but it does not mean immense value is not being generated.

It's an analogy, it doesn't have to map 1:1 to AI. The point is that current situation around AI looks kind of similar to the situation and level of hype around Crypto when it was still growing: all the "ledger" startups, promises of decentralization, NFTs in video games and so on. We are somewhere around that point when it comes to AI.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#125

Post by dexterlagan » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 6:14 PM UTC

There is one thing everybody forgets when making such predictions: companies don't stand still. Nvidia and every other tech business is constantly exploring new options, taking over competitors, buying startups with novel technologies etc... Nvidia is no slouch in that regard, and their recent quasi-acquisition of Groq is just one example of this. So, when attempting at making predictions, we're looking at a moving target, not systems set in stone. If the people at the helm are smart (and they are), you can expect lots of action and ups and downs - especially in the AI sphere.

My personal opinion, having witnessed first hand nearly 40 years of tech evolution, is that this AI revolution is different. We're at the very beginning of a true paradigm shift: the commoditization of intelligence. If that's not enough to make people think twice before betting against it, I don't know what is. And it's not just computing that is going to change. Everything is about to change, for better or worse.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#126

Post by gopher_space » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 6:17 PM UTC

jwoods19 wrote: post #35

_fat_santa wrote: post #11

This article goes more into the technical analysis of the stock rather than the underlying business fundamentals that would lead to a stock dump. My 30k ft view is that the stock will inevitably slide as AI datacenter spending goes down. Right now Nvidia is flying high because datacenters are breaking ground everywhere but eventually that will come to an end as the supply of compute goes up. The counterargument to th…

“In a gold rush, sell shovels”… Well, at some point in the gold rush everyone already has their shovels and pickaxes.

The version I heard growing up was "In a gold rush, sell eggs."

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#127

Post by blackoil » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 6:17 PM UTC

nebula8804 wrote: post #68

blackoil wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

An EU type agreement will keep peace for some time. Remove all trade barriers between two countries, have a treaty preventing any side to be used militarily by third party, no attacking each other and free movement of all vessels through each other's seas. Maybe few more

Thats just buying China more time until they can get their chip manufacturing to at least a similar ballpark. Then Taiwan has no cards left to play. China can cripple TSMC depriving the west of chips while they continue onwards.

"buying China more time". China has no time-pressure to attack immediately, but all the upside right now of pretending to a stable, sensible world leader. Treaty with Taiwan will keep the ego of One China, prevent it from naval blockade by Taiwanese territories and will remove one of the major territorial issues raised against it.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#128

Post by agentcoops » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 6:23 PM UTC

_fat_santa wrote: post #11

This article goes more into the technical analysis of the stock rather than the underlying business fundamentals that would lead to a stock dump. My 30k ft view is that the stock will inevitably slide as AI datacenter spending goes down. Right now Nvidia is flying high because datacenters are breaking ground everywhere but eventually that will come to an end as the supply of compute goes up. The counterargument to th…

I hear your argument, but short of major algorithmic breakthroughs I am not convinced the global demand for GPUs will drop any time soon. Of course I could easily be wrong, but regardless I think the most predictable cause for a drop in the NVIDIA price would be that the CHIPS act/recent decisions by the CCP leads a Chinese firm to bring to market a CUDA compatible and reliable GPU at a fraction of the cost. It should be remembered that NVIDIA's /current/ value is based on their being locked out of their second largest market (China) with no investor expectation of that changing in the future. Given the current geopolitical landscape, in the hypothetical case where a Chinese firm markets such a chip we should expect that US firms would be prohibited from purchasing them, while it's less clear that Europeans or Saudis would be. Even so, if NVIDIA were not to lower their prices at all, US firms would be at a tremendous cost disadvantage while their competitors would no longer have one with respect to compute.

All hypothetical, of course, but to me that's the most convincing bear case I've heard for NVIDIA.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#129

Post by gowld » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 6:26 PM UTC

dylan604 wrote: post #86

mikkupikku wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If a taxi company did that every year, they'd be losing a lot of money. Of course new cars and cards are cheaper to operate than old ones, but is that difference enough to offset buying a new one every one to three years?

>offset buying a new one every one to three years? Isn't that precisely how leasing works? Also, don't companies prefer not to own hardware for tax purposes? I've worked for several places where they leased compute equipment with upgrades coming at the end of each lease.

That works either because someone wants to buy old hardware for the manufacturer/lessor, or because the hardware is EOL in 3 years but it's easier to let the lessor deal with recyling / valuable parts recovery.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#130

Post by Yizahi » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 6:26 PM UTC

Melatonic wrote: post #90

linkregister wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The common factoid raised in financial reports is GPUs used in model training will lose thermal insulation due to their high utilization. The GPUs ostensibly fail. I have heard anecdotal reports of GPUs used for cryptocurrency mining having similar wear patterns. I have not seen hard data, so this could be an oft-repeated, but false fact.

It's the opposite actually - most GPU used for mining are run at a consistent temp and load which is good for long term wear. Peaky loads where the GPU goes from cold to hot and back leads to more degradation because of changes in thermal expansion. This has been known for some time now.

That is commonly repeated idea, but it doesn't take into account countless token farms which are smaller than a datacenter. Basically anything from a single MB with 8 cards to a small shed with rigs, all of which tend to disregard common engineering practices and run hardware into a ground to maximize output until next police raid or difficulty bump. Plenty of photos in the internet of crappy rigs like that, and no one guarantees which GPU comes whom where.

Another commonly forgotten issue is that many electrical components are rated by hours of operation. And cheaper boards tend to have components with smaller tolerances. And that rated time is actually a graph, where hour decrease with higher temperature. There were instances of batches of cards failing due to failing MOSFETs for example.