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Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

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Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#81

Post by wordpad »

Ekaros wrote: post #61
baxtr wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I no AI fanboy at all. I think it there won’t be AGI anytime soon. However, it’s beyond my comprehension how anyone would think that we will see a decline in demand growth for compute. AI will conquer the world like software or the smartphone did. It’ll get implemented everywhere, more people will use it. We’re super early in the penetration so far.

At this point computation is in essence commodity. And commodities have demand cycles. If other economic factors slowdown or companies go out of business they stop using compute or start less new products that use compute. Thus it is entirely realistic to me that demand for compute might go down. Or that we are just now over provisioning compute in short or medium term.

So...like Cisco during dot com bust?

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#83

Post by wordpad »

rwmj wrote: post #37
eagerpace wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Going to zero is one potential outcome. Equally plausible is it goes up 10% in a relatively quick battle or diplomatic outcome which ends the geopolitical uncertainty.

There's approximately 0% chance that China will ship leading edge wafers from captured TSMC to the West.

Not true, it might be something they compromise on to restore relations

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#84

Post by mysteria »

nospice wrote: post #58
_fat_santa wrote: post #11

This article goes more into the technical analysis of the stock rather than the underlying business fundamentals that would lead to a stock dump. My 30k ft view is that the stock will inevitably slide as AI datacenter spending goes down. Right now Nvidia is flying high because datacenters are breaking ground everywhere but eventually that will come to an end as the supply of compute goes up. The counterargument to th…

> My 30k ft view is that the stock will inevitably slide as AI datacenter spending goes down. Their stock trajectory started with one boom (cryptocurrencies) and then seamlessly progressed to another (AI). You're basically looking at a decade of "number goes up". So yeah, it will probably come down eventually (or the inflation will catch up), but it's a poor argument for betting against them right now. Meanwhile, the…

Personally I wonder even if the LLM hype dies down we'll get a new boom in terms of AI for robotics and the "digital twin" technology Nvidia has been hyping up to train them. That's going to need GPUs for both the ML component as well as 3D visualization. Robots haven't yet had their SD 1.1 or GPT-3 moment and we're still in the early days of Pythia, GPT-J, AI Dungeon, etc. in LLM speak.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#85

Post by lazide »

wordpad wrote: post #78
mikkupikku wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If a taxi company did that every year, they'd be losing a lot of money. Of course new cars and cards are cheaper to operate than old ones, but is that difference enough to offset buying a new one every one to three years?

If your competitor refreshes their cards and you dont, they will win on margin. You kind of have to.

Not necessarily if you count capital costs vs operating costs/margins.

Replacing cars every 3 years vs a couple % in efficiency is not an obvious trade off. Especially if you can do it in 5 years instead of 3.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#86

Post by dylan604 »

mikkupikku wrote: post #62
iancmceachern wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're no longer energy competitive. I.e. the amount of power per compute exceeds what is available now. It's like if your taxi company bought taxis that were more fuel efficient every year.

If a taxi company did that every year, they'd be losing a lot of money. Of course new cars and cards are cheaper to operate than old ones, but is that difference enough to offset buying a new one every one to three years?

>offset buying a new one every one to three years?

Isn't that precisely how leasing works? Also, don't companies prefer not to own hardware for tax purposes? I've worked for several places where they leased compute equipment with upgrades coming at the end of each lease.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#87

Post by coffeebeqn »

seawsurf wrote: post #76
NewCzech wrote: post #6

He doesn't really address his own question. He's answering the question "How should options be priced?" Sure, it's possible for a big crash in Nvidia just due to volatility. But in that case, the market as a whole would likely be affected. Whether Nvidia specifically takes a big dive depends much more on whether they continue to meet growth estimates than general volatility. If they miss earnings estimates in a meani…

Indeed, the market as a whole would be affected. But is not NVIDIA more of a software company than a hardware one? This bugs the shit out of me. They are maintaining this astronomical growth through data centers margins from the design of their chips and all of that started from graphics related to video games.

> But is not NVIDIA more of a software company than a hardware one?

No? That’s why they have almost no competition. Hardware starting costs are astronomical

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#88

Post by cheald »

zvqcMMV6Zcr wrote: post #18

Technical analysis is amazing, it is most refined form of pseudoscience.

This isn't technical analysis, this is an article on how to use the options market's price discovery mechanism to understand what the discovered price implies about the collective belief about the future price of the underlying.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#89

Post by Ronsenshi »

baxtr wrote: post #51
_fat_santa wrote: post #11

This article goes more into the technical analysis of the stock rather than the underlying business fundamentals that would lead to a stock dump. My 30k ft view is that the stock will inevitably slide as AI datacenter spending goes down. Right now Nvidia is flying high because datacenters are breaking ground everywhere but eventually that will come to an end as the supply of compute goes up. The counterargument to th…

I no AI fanboy at all. I think it there won’t be AGI anytime soon. However, it’s beyond my comprehension how anyone would think that we will see a decline in demand growth for compute. AI will conquer the world like software or the smartphone did. It’ll get implemented everywhere, more people will use it. We’re super early in the penetration so far.

What if its penetration ends up being on the same level as modern crypto? Average person doesn't seem to particularly care about meme coins or bitcoin - it is not being actively used in day to day setting, there's no signs of this status improving.

Doesn't mean that crypto is not being used, of course. Plenty of people do use things like USDT, gamble on bitcoin or try to scam people with new meme coins, but this is far from what crypto enthusiasts and NFT moguls promised us in their feverish posts back in the middle of 2010s.

So imagine that AI is here to stay, but the absolutely unhinged hype train will slow down and we will settle in some kind of equilibrium of practical use.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#90

Post by Melatonic »

linkregister wrote: post #66
mnky9800n wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I really don't understand the argument that nvidia GPUs only work for 1-3 years. I am currently using A100s and H100s every day. Those aren't exactly new anymore.

The common factoid raised in financial reports is GPUs used in model training will lose thermal insulation due to their high utilization. The GPUs ostensibly fail. I have heard anecdotal reports of GPUs used for cryptocurrency mining having similar wear patterns. I have not seen hard data, so this could be an oft-repeated, but false fact.

It's the opposite actually - most GPU used for mining are run at a consistent temp and load which is good for long term wear. Peaky loads where the GPU goes from cold to hot and back leads to more degradation because of changes in thermal expansion. This has been known for some time now.
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