111–120 of 385 posts
It goes to nearly zero if China invades Taiwan, and that seems like it has at least a 10% chance of happening in the next year or two.
but they're expected to have 8 or 9 aircraft carriers by 2035, doesn't it make sense to wait until then?
Technical analysis is amazing, it is most refined form of pseudoscience.
This isn't technical analysis, this is an article on how to use the options market's price discovery mechanism to understand what the discovered price implies about the collective belief about the future price of the underlying.
This article goes more into the technical analysis of the stock rather than the underlying business fundamentals that would lead to a stock dump. My 30k ft view is that the stock will inevitably slide as AI datacenter spending goes down. Right now Nvidia is flying high because datacenters are breaking ground everywhere but eventually that will come to an end as the supply of compute goes up. The counterargument to th…
edit: 2025* not 2024
This article goes more into the technical analysis of the stock rather than the underlying business fundamentals that would lead to a stock dump. My 30k ft view is that the stock will inevitably slide as AI datacenter spending goes down. Right now Nvidia is flying high because datacenters are breaking ground everywhere but eventually that will come to an end as the supply of compute goes up. The counterargument to th…
> My 30k ft view is that the stock will inevitably slide as AI datacenter spending goes down. Their stock trajectory started with one boom (cryptocurrencies) and then seamlessly progressed to another (AI). You're basically looking at a decade of "number goes up". So yeah, it will probably come down eventually (or the inflation will catch up), but it's a poor argument for betting against them right now. Meanwhile, the…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Also there's no way Nvidia's market share isn't shrinking. Especially in inference.
The large api/token providers, and large consumers are all investing in their own hardware. So, they are in an interesting position where the market is growing, and NVIDIA is taking the lion's share of enterprise, but is shrinking at the hyperscaler side (google is a good example as they shift more and more compute to TPU). So, they have a shrinking market share, but its not super visible.
Which is absolutely the right move when your latest datacenter's power bill is literally measured in gigawatts. Power-efficient training/inference hardware simply does not look like a GPU at a hardware design level (though admittedly, it looks even less like an ordinary CPU), it's more like something that should run dog slow wrt. max design frequency but then more than make up for that with extreme throughput per watt/low energy expense per elementary operation.
The whole sector of "neuromorphic" hardware design has long shown the broad feasibility of this (and TPUs are already a partial step in that direction), so it looks like this should be an obvious response to current trends in power and cooling demands for big AI workloads.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> My 30k ft view is that the stock will inevitably slide as AI datacenter spending goes down. Their stock trajectory started with one boom (cryptocurrencies) and then seamlessly progressed to another (AI). You're basically looking at a decade of "number goes up". So yeah, it will probably come down eventually (or the inflation will catch up), but it's a poor argument for betting against them right now. Meanwhile, the…
That's the rub - it's clearly overvalued and will readjust... the question is when. If you can figure out when precisely then you've won the lottery, for everyone else it's a game of chicken where for "a while" money that you put into it will have a good return. Everyone would love if that lasted forever so there is a strong momentum preventing that market correction.
This article goes more into the technical analysis of the stock rather than the underlying business fundamentals that would lead to a stock dump. My 30k ft view is that the stock will inevitably slide as AI datacenter spending goes down. Right now Nvidia is flying high because datacenters are breaking ground everywhere but eventually that will come to an end as the supply of compute goes up. The counterargument to th…
Once the money dries up, a new bubble will be invented to capture the middle class income, like NFTs and crypto before that, and commissionless stocks, etc etc
It’s not all pump-and-dump. Again, this is a pretty reductive take on market forces. I’m just saying I don’t think it’s quite as unsustainable as you might think.
People don't actually believe this type of analysis... do they?