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Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

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Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#91

Post by Ekaros »

wordpad wrote: post #81
Ekaros wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At this point computation is in essence commodity. And commodities have demand cycles. If other economic factors slowdown or companies go out of business they stop using compute or start less new products that use compute. Thus it is entirely realistic to me that demand for compute might go down. Or that we are just now over provisioning compute in short or medium term.

So...like Cisco during dot com bust?

More so I meant to think of oil, copper and now silver. All follow demand for the price. All have had varying prices at different times. Compute should not really be that different.

But yes. Cisco's value dropped when there was not same amount to spend on networking gear. Nvidia's value will drop as there is not same amount of spend on their gear.

Other impacted players in actual economic downturn could be Amazon with AWS, MS with Azure. And even more so those now betting on AI computing. At least general purpose computing can run web servers.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#93

Post by gruez »

mikkupikku wrote: post #62
iancmceachern wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're no longer energy competitive. I.e. the amount of power per compute exceeds what is available now. It's like if your taxi company bought taxis that were more fuel efficient every year.

If a taxi company did that every year, they'd be losing a lot of money. Of course new cars and cards are cheaper to operate than old ones, but is that difference enough to offset buying a new one every one to three years?

>If a taxi company did that every year, they'd be losing a lot of money. Of course new cars and cards are cheaper to operate than old ones, but is that difference enough to offset buying a new one every one to three years?

That's where the analogy breaks. There are massive efficiency gains from new process nodes, which new GPUs use. Efficiency improvements for cars are glacial, aside from "breakthroughs" like hybrid/EV cars.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#95

Post by linuxftw »

mnky9800n wrote: post #53
_fat_santa wrote: post #11

This article goes more into the technical analysis of the stock rather than the underlying business fundamentals that would lead to a stock dump. My 30k ft view is that the stock will inevitably slide as AI datacenter spending goes down. Right now Nvidia is flying high because datacenters are breaking ground everywhere but eventually that will come to an end as the supply of compute goes up. The counterargument to th…

I really don't understand the argument that nvidia GPUs only work for 1-3 years. I am currently using A100s and H100s every day. Those aren't exactly new anymore.

I think the story is less about the GPUs themselves, and more about the interconnects for building massive GPU clusters. Nvidia just announced a massive switch for linking GPUs inside a rack. So the next couple of generations of GPU clusters will be capable of things that were previously impossible or impractical.

This doesn't mean much for inference, but for training, it is going to be huge.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#96

Post by zozbot234 »

lazide wrote: post #85
wordpad wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If your competitor refreshes their cards and you dont, they will win on margin. You kind of have to.

Not necessarily if you count capital costs vs operating costs/margins. Replacing cars every 3 years vs a couple % in efficiency is not an obvious trade off. Especially if you can do it in 5 years instead of 3.

You can sell the old, less efficient GPUs to folks who will be running them with markedly lower duty cycles (so, less emphasis on direct operational costs), e.g. for on-prem inference or even just typical workstation/consumer use. It ends up being a win-win trade.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#99

Post by seawsurf »

coffeebeqn wrote: post #87
seawsurf wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Indeed, the market as a whole would be affected. But is not NVIDIA more of a software company than a hardware one? This bugs the shit out of me. They are maintaining this astronomical growth through data centers margins from the design of their chips and all of that started from graphics related to video games.

> But is not NVIDIA more of a software company than a hardware one? No? That’s why they have almost no competition. Hardware starting costs are astronomical

But the actual manufacturing foundry is TSMC no? And they create the whole software environment based on their chips.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#100

Post by galaxyLogic »

Ekaros wrote: post #61
baxtr wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I no AI fanboy at all. I think it there won’t be AGI anytime soon. However, it’s beyond my comprehension how anyone would think that we will see a decline in demand growth for compute. AI will conquer the world like software or the smartphone did. It’ll get implemented everywhere, more people will use it. We’re super early in the penetration so far.

At this point computation is in essence commodity. And commodities have demand cycles. If other economic factors slowdown or companies go out of business they stop using compute or start less new products that use compute. Thus it is entirely realistic to me that demand for compute might go down. Or that we are just now over provisioning compute in short or medium term.

I wonder, is the quality of AI answers going up over time or not? Last weekend I spent a lot of time with Preplexity trying to understand why my SeqTrack device didn't do what I wanted it to do and seems Perplexity had a wrong idea of how the buttons on the device are laid out, so it gave me wrong or confusing answers. I spent literally hours trying to feed it different prompts to get an answer that would solve my problem.

If it had given me the right easy to understand answer right away I would have spent 2 minutes of both MY time and ITS time. My point is if AI will improve we will need less of it, to get our questions answered. Or, perhaps AI usage goes up if it improves its answers?

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