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Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

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Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#441
post #345

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What evidence is there for the 'dump' part? Mr Musk is a strange fellow indeed, but he's not guilty of all the vices and sins. Just plenty enough of them.

I'd say more in Doge and Bitcoin but you could argue with his stocks even though they're announced/scheduled.

As Matt Levine points out, Musk does plenty of crypto price moving with his tweets, but he doesn't seem to trade on them.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#442

Earlier quoted context omitted.

he did manage to predict/make into reality electric vehicles (when going into that industry was crazy) Nissan might like a word about that.

Nissan made a golf cart with an ecobox car cabin.

So Elon invented selling a slightly more expensive EV in a state with generous government support for this?

A business plan that the real Tesla founders actually came up with because they'd seen Silicon Valley homes with Porsches and Prius parked next to each other and thought they could combine those two things?

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#443
post #336

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For this to work every single shareholder has to be in on the game. I wonder if the only reason it has gone on this long is because TSLA has so many required institutional investors stabilizing the market.

Any serious shareholder with a significant investment in it is surely aware that it's an overvalued meme stock that will continue to print money as long as the reality distortion field is maintained. They'd be utter idiots if they weren't. (And if they are utter idiots, you shouldn't expect them to behave rationally.)

This is exactly it: they're making a perfectly rational decision keeping Musk on the way he is, because the alternative once he's out is the stock crashes due to the uncertainty and the fanboys bailing.

Why have less money when you actually don't care what happens if you have more money? So long as the stock retains its value, you can do things like borrow against your holdings, leverage that into other investments etc.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#444
post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is an entire Wikipedia article about Musk's (mostly) failed predictions: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autono...

The best counter argument to that is that he did manage to predict/make into reality electric vehicles (when going into that industry was crazy) and reusable rockets. If someone makes a thousand moonshot attempts but still succeeds with two that's impressive.

> he did manage to predict/make into reality electric vehicles

I miss the morning delivery of milk to the doorstep. And the milk carts that used to deliver it

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milk_float

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#445

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is an entire Wikipedia article about Musk's (mostly) failed predictions: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autono...

At what point is it fair to call the list something other than ‘predictions’

I guess when people stop believing them. Until then, they're words from a visionary that's building the future, who can get some things wrong / be over zealous etc. When people stop believing him, they become lies.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#447
post #337

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The model Y is a genuinely good car... I can't think of an automaker with better software. great. I love that comment because software is the one element of a vehicle that we know it (vehicles) can do without from prior art. personally I would prefer a vehicle that emphasizes safety, aesthetics, performance, handling, utility, comfort, or reliability. another opinion : the cars with the best software are the ones wh…

What car exceeds a Tesla in all these categories that I can get used for the same price as a used Tesla? I'm asking this as a challenge; in a Tesla the biggest complaint I have actually is the half-baked music software. You can't set it to start playing USB music when you get in, and there's no button to resume it either. You have to use the voice command "switch to USB" to get it playing where it left off. The car's…

Are we counting potential competitors that are locked out due to trade barriers?

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#448
post #2

Tesla stock dipped a little today it seems but it's still up 8 percent over the month. I really don't understand those investors and how they price a struggling company so highly.

> I really don't understand those investors and how they price a struggling company so highly. Struggling, not so much: '24/'25 revenue of just under $100B, with Q3'25 record profitability and deliveries yielding $1.5B net income. Strong liquidity and a current ratio of about 2, boosting short-term financial stability. Solid cash reserves and relatively low debt ratio. High stock price: far exceeds that of traditiona…

With many traditional auto makers you at this point have to wonder if they are still going to be around in ten years. Companies like Ford, Toyota, BMW, etc. are not looking so great. They each have the dilemma of a market that's shrinking by double digit percentages year on year (ICE cars) while another market is growing by the same percentage (EVs).

The way Toyota and Ford deal with this is reducing investments in EVs while at the same time meeting increased EV demand by heavily leaning on other companies to make them some EVs. Ford is working with VW and Renault in Europe. Toyota is working with big Chinese manufacturers in China. So is Ford. BMW has some success with their recent EV models but it is taking big hits with demand for their overall products in markets like the US and China.

The US is clearly lagging the EU and China when it comes to electrification. It's not at all clear that Tesla is doing much better. Their market share has tanked in markets where EVs do well (China, EU). However, it does have its own tech and still plenty of money. Where other manufacturers are leaning on outside suppliers, Tesla is pushing their own technology hard for just about everything. Including self driving cars and batteries. It's a different strategy at least and one that isn't dependent on the ICE market doing well or Chinese manufacturers doing all the technical heavy lifting.

Tesla's stock price is based on investor expectations on some of those bets working out eventually. Even if a lot of that stuff seems like it is struggling right now, it's too early to write all of it off as failed. The 4680 is still expected to be a big part of the semi's Tesla is expected to finally start mass producing in 2026. Self driving tests are still continuing and might eventually add up to something that works well enough. And it's also a relavant format for LFP based chemistries.

The problem for all of them have right now (especially Tesla) is that the Chinese are moving full steam ahead and are doing really well on technology and growth currently. Including things like self driving and of course batteries. The 4680 seems like it is old news when solid state is happening and new chemistries other than NMC are starting to dominate. And FSD while impressive has plenty of competition from other vendors at this point. Rivian has its own version. So do several Chinese vendors. And of course Waymo is actually moving lots of passengers autonomously at this point.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#449

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is an entire Wikipedia article about Musk's (mostly) failed predictions: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autono...

At what point is it fair to call the list something other than ‘predictions’

Those are borderline lies that deceived both customers and investors.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#450
post #345
post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pump and dump scheme?

What evidence is there for the 'dump' part? Mr Musk is a strange fellow indeed, but he's not guilty of all the vices and sins. Just plenty enough of them.

IIRC, back in 2022 or so he'd made about as much selling TSLA shares as Tesla Inc. has made lifetime profits selling cars.

Tesla's profits have been positive since then, so this may no longer be the case, but still, that's a very iffy state of affairs.

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