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Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

electrek.co

331–340 of 836 posts

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#331

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Just 6 months ago, we were told that Robotaxi would be available to half the US population by the end of the year. It's available! Everyone in the US can go to Austin and get a ride in a Tesla robotaxi!

Reports say there are only about 10 Robotaxis operating in Austin at any one time. https://electrek.co/2025/12/22/tesla-robotaxi-project-austin... https://www.teslarobotaxitracker.com/

So s/everyone/anyone/ I guess?

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#332
How easily can stocks be redirected to eg energy supply logistics and make battery stacks?

How easily can the inputs be redirected by the source to more viable longterm contract sells?

How strongly will this push back on mining and minerals in related fields? E.g. palladium prices have collapsed, could this kind of thing move mining product pricing?

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#333
post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> collapse suddenly If BYD was in the US I think we could check this box reeeeaaally quickly. It would make Tesla irrelevant.

> If BYD was in the US I think we could check this box reeeeaaally quickly. It would make Tesla irrelevant. Why? What's your logic?

The only logic anyone really needs is the US's refusal to approve BYD cars for sale in the US because they would destroy US auto manufacturers. Past that the much cheaper price for the same or higher quality level of vehicle.

What does a 2025 US car have over a BYD vehicle? Questionable parts availability?

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#334
post #9

A headline that actually undersells the article. The 2,900,000,000 $ deal to 7,400 $ is not just a 99% reduction, it is actually over a 99.999% reduction. I guess that is one way to get the "march of nines" they keep promising.

At some point the question isn’t “how many nines” but “why is the contract worth $7400 and not $0”.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#335

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I really don't understand those investors and how they price a struggling company so highly. Struggling, not so much: '24/'25 revenue of just under $100B, with Q3'25 record profitability and deliveries yielding $1.5B net income. Strong liquidity and a current ratio of about 2, boosting short-term financial stability. Solid cash reserves and relatively low debt ratio. High stock price: far exceeds that of traditiona…

there was a rush to buy electric cars in the US for as long as the $7500 incentive was in place, so the Q3 2025 number if inflated; it's a pull forward effect. Sales have been flat for 3 years and the delivery numbers in Europe are catastrophic on a fully diluted basis, the market cap is above $1.6tn, so at a PE of 20, they'd have to generate something like $80bn in profit per year - hard to do in an industry that is…

It’s also Americans realized how inconvenient electric cars are. I take a fair amount of road trips. I don’t have the time to wait 30 minutes minimum to charge. And if there’s a line it’s even worse. And in the winter the heater reduces the distance a ton. It just isn’t practical

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#336

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with the stock market is, even if you know with 100% certainty that EM is lying and Tesla is overvalued, you only can cash in that knowledge if the stock price makes contact with reality. In fact even if every single shareholder in Tesla knows that the price is unsustainable they can still hold out for a greater fool for years. To a large extent you are betting on what the crowd will do, not what the comp…

For this to work every single shareholder has to be in on the game. I wonder if the only reason it has gone on this long is because TSLA has so many required institutional investors stabilizing the market.

Any serious shareholder with a significant investment in it is surely aware that it's an overvalued meme stock that will continue to print money as long as the reality distortion field is maintained.

They'd be utter idiots if they weren't. (And if they are utter idiots, you shouldn't expect them to behave rationally.)

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#337
post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe "cultists" is a better word than fans, with Musk as their guru.

The model Y is a genuinely good car... I can't think of an automaker with better software. I've recently been shopping for another electric SUV and to be told that to get charging stops on your long trip 'through an app on your phone' instead of built into the navigation is.... Wild Edit: it needs to be said that I consider a car a solution to the A to B problem, and nothing more :) This was one of the premium German…

>The model Y is a genuinely good car... I can't think of an automaker with better software.

great. I love that comment because software is the one element of a vehicle that we know it (vehicles) can do without from prior art.

personally I would prefer a vehicle that emphasizes safety, aesthetics, performance, handling, utility, comfort, or reliability.

another opinion : the cars with the best software are the ones where the user can't easily tell that the thing isn't analog.

I don't care if the infotainment system is laggy or temperamental about pairing with certain phones; what I care about is accurate system self diagnosis, reliable cold weather starting, consistent performance regardless of altitude or temperature, and sane thresholds that don't throw DTCs erroneously.

Those are the software elements in a car that matter to the car being a car rather than a glorified boombox on wheels; and Tesla doesn't score highly in any of those metrics over the length of their brand.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#338
Don't worry, the 99% reduction in battery materials is just a strategic pivot to an 'asset-light' approach. The 4680 supply chain isn't collapsing, it’s just being 'optimized' for a future where cars apparently don't need batteries—just FSD subscriptions and robotaxis that run on optimism.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#339

Tesla is actually starting to make cathodes in house via a dry process, which is why they are no longer buying cathode material from this supplier. Typical sloppy reporting from Electrek.

> Tesla is actually starting to make cathodes in house via a dry process, which is why they are no longer buying cathode material from this supplier.

The latter part of this is speculative. Tesla may have begun shipping dry cathodes but it isn't clear that they're capable of matching the former third-party volume. Tesla would absolutely need the additional 4680 volume if Cybertruck sales were meeting their original projections (as opposed to now when they are ~an order of magnitude lower).

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#340

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's incredible there is something wrong with a group of people completely unable to see when someone is lying to them. And no matter how many times they are lied to, as long as they are rich enough they believe them. I don't know what to think anymore about this. He has continuously conned his way along and does it just long enough to jump to the next con. Tesla is crashing and somehow people though giving him a hug…

> Tesla is crashing But the stock keeps hitting new all time highs.

"The market can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent" applies here.

Luckily I don't bet, I would have taken a huge short position and lost a bunch of money on Tesla years ago because they were already over valued by any plausible revenue projection, and yet the stock went up and up.

But worth remembering, the South Sea Company was worth the equivalent of a few trillion dollars too.

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