Live data from Hacker News

Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

electrek.co

211–220 of 836 posts

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#211
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla is probably the only EV maker with declining sales for the last two years. Quite a feat in a booming market, and remarkable considering that the stock already has a few orders of magnitude of growth priced in.

This is an interesting take, considering several EVs from traditional manufacturers have been canned entirely.

US auto is not the trend setter here. BYD is crushing it by comparison

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#212

For years, we’ve been told that the 4680 cell was the “holy grail” that would allow Tesla to produce a $25,000 electric car. For years, we've been told a lot of things that have never come to fruition. Just 6 months ago, we were told that Robotaxi would be available to half the US population by the end of the year. https://electrek.co/2025/07/23/elon-musk-with-straight-face-...

"The car is driving itself. The human is only there for legal reasons." (Tesla, 2016)

"It's technically true at any given point in time" - Felon Musk, probably.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#213
post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The best counter argument to that is that he did manage to predict/make into reality electric vehicles (when going into that industry was crazy) and reusable rockets. If someone makes a thousand moonshot attempts but still succeeds with two that's impressive.

Electric vehicles were the first types of cars invented. Musk also bought into Tesla. So its not like he invented some kind of alien technology. It was always about having good enough marketing to permit 10 years of R&D to make the car actually attractive.

They were also mass produced before Tesla.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Figured that metric is for EV only, which is not that surprising. But even for overall sales it's #11 on the list for first 3 quarters of 2025, which is not too shabby: https://www.carpro.com/blog/2025-year-to-date-u.s-auto-sales...

> Figured that metric is for EV only, which is not that surprising. But it is stunning that legacy automakers are sticking to fossil fuels.

The infrastructure just isn't there to make EVs interesting for a lot of people in the US and EU.

They also know that this means that the EU will push the target date for the end of fossi fuel cars.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#215

Doing a quick bit of searching based on the 4680 makes me think that there has been or will be a change from NMC811 to LFP chemistry in the 4680, including one article talking about changing to US and European-based in-house manufacturing and reducing dependence on China. I'm no fan of Tesla, but this looks like the collapse of the contract with the supplier for the battery chemistry they've moved away from, aka "no…

This makes sense but does it make sense to manufacture LFPs as 4680 cylinders instead of rectangular blocks/blades, given https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BYD_Blade_battery ?

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#216

For years, we’ve been told that the 4680 cell was the “holy grail” that would allow Tesla to produce a $25,000 electric car. For years, we've been told a lot of things that have never come to fruition. Just 6 months ago, we were told that Robotaxi would be available to half the US population by the end of the year. https://electrek.co/2025/07/23/elon-musk-with-straight-face-...

It's incredible there is something wrong with a group of people completely unable to see when someone is lying to them. And no matter how many times they are lied to, as long as they are rich enough they believe them. I don't know what to think anymore about this. He has continuously conned his way along and does it just long enough to jump to the next con. Tesla is crashing and somehow people though giving him a hug…

> there is something wrong with a group of people completely unable to see when someone is lying to them.

They mistakenly believe, like temporarily embarrassed millionaires/capitalists [1], that they are actually in the winning group.

[1] _ https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/John_Steinbeck#Disputed

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is an entire Wikipedia article about Musk's (mostly) failed predictions: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autono...

I had no idea this existed, that's pretty damning. The question - is Musk lying on purpose, or is this more 90-90 rule where he made (obviously wrong) assumptions based on current progress?

The latter implies there is any progress to project out from.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#218

For years, we’ve been told that the 4680 cell was the “holy grail” that would allow Tesla to produce a $25,000 electric car. For years, we've been told a lot of things that have never come to fruition. Just 6 months ago, we were told that Robotaxi would be available to half the US population by the end of the year. https://electrek.co/2025/07/23/elon-musk-with-straight-face-...

It's incredible there is something wrong with a group of people completely unable to see when someone is lying to them. And no matter how many times they are lied to, as long as they are rich enough they believe them. I don't know what to think anymore about this. He has continuously conned his way along and does it just long enough to jump to the next con. Tesla is crashing and somehow people though giving him a hug…

> Tesla is crashing

But the stock keeps hitting new all time highs.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is an interesting take, considering several EVs from traditional manufacturers have been canned entirely.

The EV market is booming outside of NA. EV growth share in Europe is remarkable and Tesla is flatlining there while everyone else advances.

Lack of FSD in Europe. If they manage to get it approved in 2026 expect that to reverse.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#220

For years, we’ve been told that the 4680 cell was the “holy grail” that would allow Tesla to produce a $25,000 electric car. For years, we've been told a lot of things that have never come to fruition. Just 6 months ago, we were told that Robotaxi would be available to half the US population by the end of the year. https://electrek.co/2025/07/23/elon-musk-with-straight-face-...

It's incredible there is something wrong with a group of people completely unable to see when someone is lying to them. And no matter how many times they are lied to, as long as they are rich enough they believe them. I don't know what to think anymore about this. He has continuously conned his way along and does it just long enough to jump to the next con. Tesla is crashing and somehow people though giving him a hug…

The problem with the stock market is, even if you know with 100% certainty that EM is lying and Tesla is overvalued, you only can cash in that knowledge if the stock price makes contact with reality.

In fact even if every single shareholder in Tesla knows that the price is unsustainable they can still hold out for a greater fool for years. To a large extent you are betting on what the crowd will do, not what the company will do.

Post reply on HN