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Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

electrek.co

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Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#111

Post by consp »

gota wrote: post #50
AnotherGoodName wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

$7,386 seems to be roughly one Cybertruck batteries worth (the only vehicle that uses that battery). As in they literally expect to build one more Cybertruck battery and that's it. I'm guessing the excess stock in the Tesla factories covers spares for a few years already. I wonder when the cancellation will be announced by Tesla? It's all but leaked at this point.

Maybe they did this to keep the contract with a symbolic value; or to avoid the headlines that Tesla 'cancelled' the contract? A '99% write down' is such an uncommon term that many people might not register it.

> Maybe they did this to keep the contract with a symbolic value;

Tax reasons? Keep it on the book and write the loss off against other profit over coming years? No clue how it would work in practice but it sounds taxy.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#112

Post by nutjob2 »

nxm wrote: post #36
coliveira wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They essentially gave away the market to Chinese companies, while at the same time complaining that China is "stealing" something.

Why didn’t the Europeans come out on top?

Because they're complacent and risk adverse.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#113

Post by whynotmaybe »

jqpabc123 wrote: post #5

For years, we’ve been told that the 4680 cell was the “holy grail” that would allow Tesla to produce a $25,000 electric car. For years, we've been told a lot of things that have never come to fruition. Just 6 months ago, we were told that Robotaxi would be available to half the US population by the end of the year. https://electrek.co/2025/07/23/elon-musk-with-straight-face-...

I'm still sour of how easily I was deceived while being so happy when envisioning a future that won't come.

First with autopilot, then with boring's tunnels, then a $39k cybertruck, then ...

What's that saying about "fool me so many times I can't keep count" ?

Whatever angry feeling we may have towards Elon Musk, he's not the richest man on earth for nothing.

Lesson learned, till next time !

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#114

Post by cmrdporcupine »

coliveira wrote: post #24
manoDev wrote: post #14

The future of electrification is at risk because the market chose to bet on TSLA. Many companies backpedaled on EV and the POTUS is making a major push towards oil (including invading Venezuela). The future looks grim.

They essentially gave away the market to Chinese companies, while at the same time complaining that China is "stealing" something.

The "theft" they are really worried about is the loss of oil industry profits.

That's who is sock-puppeting all these misanthropes.

US capitalism was fine with a few wealthy people driving around some novelty luxury cars with EV motors in them. China turned it into an actual mass market product.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#115

Post by tclancy »

jqpabc123 wrote: post #5

For years, we’ve been told that the 4680 cell was the “holy grail” that would allow Tesla to produce a $25,000 electric car. For years, we've been told a lot of things that have never come to fruition. Just 6 months ago, we were told that Robotaxi would be available to half the US population by the end of the year. https://electrek.co/2025/07/23/elon-musk-with-straight-face-...

2026 is the Year of Tesla on the Desktop.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#116

Post by foobarian »

renewiltord wrote: post #105
fsh wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla is probably the only EV maker with declining sales for the last two years. Quite a feat in a booming market, and remarkable considering that the stock already has a few orders of magnitude of growth priced in.

The declining sales is a concern. Was curious though so I looked it up and Tesla is currently selling more than Volkswagen, Ford, Rivian, Mercedes, and Toyota combined. Interesting. The big dog is BYD though. Twice as many as 2nd place Tesla.

Figured that metric is for EV only, which is not that surprising. But even for overall sales it's #11 on the list for first 3 quarters of 2025, which is not too shabby: https://www.carpro.com/blog/2025-year-to-date-u.s-auto-sales...

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#117

Post by andsoitis »

renewiltord wrote: post #105
fsh wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla is probably the only EV maker with declining sales for the last two years. Quite a feat in a booming market, and remarkable considering that the stock already has a few orders of magnitude of growth priced in.

The declining sales is a concern. Was curious though so I looked it up and Tesla is currently selling more than Volkswagen, Ford, Rivian, Mercedes, and Toyota combined. Interesting. The big dog is BYD though. Twice as many as 2nd place Tesla.

> Was curious though so I looked it up and Tesla is currently selling more than Volkswagen, Ford, Rivian, Mercedes, and Toyota combined. Interesting.

Indeed. Global 2024 data shows Tesla selling about 1.8M. EV's only by that group of automakers comes to around 1.5M. Toyota and Ford are hybrid-first, not EV. VW is the only legacy automaker that comes near Tesla's EV scale. Mercedes prioritizes margin over volume. Rivian is capacity-limited.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#118

Post by TheOtherHobbes »

abirch wrote: post #30
coliveira wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just wait another 6 months /s

Tesla isn't a car company it's a robotics company (2025) Tesla isn't a robotics company it's a meme company (2027)

Tesla isn't a company (2029)

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#119

Post by toomuchtodo »

Analemma_ wrote: post #69
jqpabc123 wrote: post #5

For years, we’ve been told that the 4680 cell was the “holy grail” that would allow Tesla to produce a $25,000 electric car. For years, we've been told a lot of things that have never come to fruition. Just 6 months ago, we were told that Robotaxi would be available to half the US population by the end of the year. https://electrek.co/2025/07/23/elon-musk-with-straight-face-...

"The car is driving itself. The human is only there for legal reasons." (Tesla, 2016)

Tesla video promoting self-driving was staged, engineer testifies - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34415413 - January 2023 (342 comments)

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#120

Post by andsoitis »

knuppar wrote: post #89
andsoitis wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It has delivered a better ROI in the same way a ponzi scheme can deliver higher ROI. It sounds like you're arguing that high valuation compared to fundamentals means buyers expect gains from future buyers paying more sounds like a Ponzi, but it isn't, it is speculation. The comparison doesn't make sense. Some surface features of speculative markets can look Ponzi-like, but the underlying mechanics are very differen…

> collapse suddenly If BYD was in the US I think we could check this box reeeeaaally quickly. It would make Tesla irrelevant.

> If BYD was in the US I think we could check this box reeeeaaally quickly. It would make Tesla irrelevant.

Why? What's your logic?

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