Do you really want to be making this much money when you're 50? • Hacker News Board

Re: Do you really want to be making this much money when you're 50?

#101

Post by guard-of-terra » Sat, Oct 06, 2012, 4:39 PM UTC

dmorgan wrote: post #95

guard-of-terra wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Programmer is like the modern villager. Villagers grew food and made stuff and that's what you ever needed. The programmer writes code and everything in our civilization is already code or it will be. Therefore, programmer is a much broader occupation than almost any other. It's still a seller's marker because of that. Look at everything around you, and while there is at least one item that doesn't execute code insid…

> Programmer is like the modern villager. Villagers grew food and made stuff and that's what you ever needed. The programmer writes code and everything in our civilization is already code or it will be. That's an extremely short-sighted way to look at it. In fact, take out the non-programmers, and all programming will collapse -- literally come to a halt. You know, guys like those that grow and transport out food, cl…

There would be computerized food transport, real world garbage collectors, pizza machines, miner droids and 3D plotters handling bricks for building.

There is no reason you can't replace most of those human tasks with machines. And while we gradually do that, we'll need more and more programmers. Or maybe we will fail horribly, but not because it could not be done; and somebody will do this a few centuries later.

Re: Do you really want to be making this much money when you're 50?

#102

Post by _yosefk » Sat, Oct 06, 2012, 4:42 PM UTC

dmethvin wrote: post #99

_yosefk wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I said "little or no education" compared to other fields. I'm a grad school dropout, so my bet is that my CS education is above average for a working programmer. A hiring process considered "demanding" (such as Google's) is basically testing if you know the stuff they learn in the first year and a half of an undergraduate program. Contrast that to the amount of training and test-taking that a doctor must go through a…

In that case I think "little or no certification" would be more appropriate. It does seem kind of strange that doctors, lawyers, electricians, plumbers, and barbers all have to take tests to get into (and sometimes remain in) their professions, but a programmer can write the software for a missle system, voting machine, or power plant with no certification whatsoever.

I think "little required education" is true, for programming, in both senses: no certification, and not that much to learn to become productive compared to other professions. As I said in another thread, I think the reason is that the field is younger and that computers are designed to be comprehensible, unlike human bodies that doctors deal with or legal documents that lawyers deal with, etc.

There are programmers with almost zero CS education, formal or otherwise, who are rather productive. This may make the more educated among us cringe at some of their work, but the fact remains. If CS education was essential, it wouldn't happen, whatever we think about the merits of CS education (I rather value mine). A high school dropout could not successfully operate brain tumors; there are many countries where the fact that it's illegal wouldn't stop the practice if it were effective, but it can never be. Similarly for most high-paying professions other than programming and certain types of business.

Re: Do you really want to be making this much money when you're 50?

#103

Post by ChuckMcM » Sat, Oct 06, 2012, 4:44 PM UTC

I think this is a bit cynical (and dangerous) but agree with the premise that currently the number of programming opportunities continues to exceed the number of programmers. However there are signs that this is changing.

I do know a programmer who became an IP attorney (doing well at it too) and a couple of programmers who have gone off to do entirely different things (one is a guide in Africa, another drives a tugboat around Puget Sound for fun and profit). I also know some who are not working at their first choice of job, rather they are working at jobs they would not have taken if they had a choice.

It is this last bit that suggests we are at the beginning of the end for the programming shortage.

NB: I think it is hilarious that the first comment is from a user named Bogdan but I suspect that is just me.

Re: Do you really want to be making this much money when you're 50?

#104

Post by guard-of-terra » Sat, Oct 06, 2012, 4:45 PM UTC

randomdata wrote: post #88

guard-of-terra wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All this would do is a short-term depression of SF programmer wages coupled to short-term surge in worldwide programmer wages. Because guess what, smart guy in Ukraine was already employed there and when he moves the next guy coming to fill the gap will either cost more or be less smart. Programmer talent is sparse worldwide, not just in the Valley.

Programmer talent is sparse worldwide And yet, when I look around at the job postings in Canada, a job with requirements that go on endlessly tops out at about $80,000/year. Expect less if you are an average programmer. Such a low income, relative to what US-based companies are offering, doesn't really speak to a shortage in my mind. I admit, there could be some kind of survivorship bias here: I'm only seeing the low…

What is the average job offering in Canada? How does it compare? What occupations pay significantly more? Do they pay that immediately after joining or the good compensation does not kick in until quite a few years has passed? How large are those professions by the headcount?

I think we can find the source of this distortion if it exists. All I can say right now is that areas where you have access to money not backed by productivity tend to trump programming or any other jobs where the employer has to make ends meet. Those areas are usually law, sometimes medicine (often not), and some public sector / government contractors.

Re: Do you really want to be making this much money when you're 50?

#105

Post by teach » Sat, Oct 06, 2012, 4:48 PM UTC

EwanG wrote: post #82

skrebbel wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A multi-billion dollar project. I can't really imagine that. Are those ever executed by a single company all on its own? Are they software-only? Do they exist outside NASA?

I think timescale may be applicable here. Some key programs for large companies will spend several million a year for several years - particularly if you are taking your Mainframe applications and trying to restructure them to have more easily changed business rules and a new infrastructure. That said, I also suspect he may have been exaggerating for effect :-)

I have a friend who works for Northrop Grumman, and he just completed a $500 million project he described as "relatively small".

Re: Do you really want to be making this much money when you're 50?

#106

Post by _yosefk » Sat, Oct 06, 2012, 4:49 PM UTC

lutusp wrote: post #93

Just a few comments on a well-written article that makes some good points: > No health or legal risks On the contrary -- the health risk arises primarily because of the sedentary lifestyle. It's hard to imagine anything so hard on one's health and longevity prospects as sitting and typing all day. As to legal risks, they're certainly on the upswing, as people who can't program try to steal the work of those who can,…

I think programming and exercising is healthier than, say, moving.

As to legal risks - it's not the programmer who's facing them, it's his employer (which is the same thing for the self-employed programmers, but they're few). A programmer will not be personally sued for any sort of "IP infringement".

Re: Do you really want to be making this much money when you're 50?

#107

Post by wtvanhest » Sat, Oct 06, 2012, 4:49 PM UTC

Is anyone concerned that over the next 10+ years after many people realize how lucrative the work is that supply will catch up with demand?

Re: Do you really want to be making this much money when you're 50?

#108

Post by _yosefk » Sat, Oct 06, 2012, 4:51 PM UTC

anovikov wrote: post #79

I know a programmer who became a lawyer (in Netherlands). It lifted his hourly rate 10x (50->500 EUR/hour), and while not all time is paid, and he isn't working full time having a lot of time to spare, he's getting like 2x than before.

That's rather nice indeed; I think the mean earnings for lawyers aren't that high and there's quite a lot of variance, not?

(Unfortunately, this is a theoretical discussion for me, since I'd make a lousy lawyer.)

Re: Do you really want to be making this much money when you're 50?

#109

Post by 3pt14159 » Sat, Oct 06, 2012, 4:51 PM UTC

randomdata wrote: post #88

guard-of-terra wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All this would do is a short-term depression of SF programmer wages coupled to short-term surge in worldwide programmer wages. Because guess what, smart guy in Ukraine was already employed there and when he moves the next guy coming to fill the gap will either cost more or be less smart. Programmer talent is sparse worldwide, not just in the Valley.

Programmer talent is sparse worldwide And yet, when I look around at the job postings in Canada, a job with requirements that go on endlessly tops out at about $80,000/year. Expect less if you are an average programmer. Such a low income, relative to what US-based companies are offering, doesn't really speak to a shortage in my mind. I admit, there could be some kind of survivorship bias here: I'm only seeing the low…

They do not top out at 80k, but for positions that are truly senior companies don't even post those on job boards. You need to network and get noticed if you want to be earning 130 or 150 here.

Re: Do you really want to be making this much money when you're 50?

#110

Post by LnxPrgr3 » Sat, Oct 06, 2012, 4:52 PM UTC

tatsuke95 wrote: post #11

> "The fact is that your material well-being is rarely in jeopardy because of a missed deadline, so your reaction is fully up to you. " Much of what the author says is true, currently. This is a fantastic market for programmers, and anyone being born into this era is lucky. But the forces of supply and demand will sort this market out in the future, to which the author seems ignorant. Name another profession that req…

I went to school with people who went into CS because they thought they were pretty good with computers and they saw money in programming. Some of them made it; others dropped out or changed majors.

"Despite the enormous changes which have taken place since electronic computing was invented in the 1950s, some things remain stubbornly the same. In particular, most people can’t learn to program: between 30% and 60% of every university computer science department’s intake fail the ﬁrst programming course." (Source: http://www.eis.mdx.ac.uk/research/PhDArea/saeed/paper1.pdf)

Many others learn how to string glue code together, but can't really solve problems that go deeper than finding the right library to import. I've heard working programmers worrying they'd fail a FizzBuzz test in an interview.

If anything, I suspect the bar for talent will go up—increasingly, programmers barely getting by now will become a commodity. But real aptitude is still rare, and I think the right combinations of talents will hold their value for a good while.