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OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

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Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#601

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes these are horrible pain points. I can only hope Apple improves this stuff if it's true that they're adding MCP support throughout the OS which should require better multi-agent handling You can use worktrees to have multiple copies building or testing at once I'm a solo dev so I rarely use some git features like rebase. I work out of trunk only without branches (if I need a branch, I use a feature flag). So I can…

How can I get in touch?

hn () manabi.io

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#602
post #32

why couldn't GPT5.1 improve itself? Last I heard, it can produce original math and has phd level intelligence.

I believe it was Sam Altman that said software engineers wouldn't have jobs by the end of the year. They still have a few weeks to make good on that.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#603

OpenAI has already lined up enormous long-term commitments — over $500 billion through initiatives like Stargate for U.S. data centers, $250 billion in spending on Microsoft Azure cloud services, and tens of billions on AMD’s plan to deliver 6 GW of Instinct GPUs. Meanwhile, Oracle has financed its role in Stargate with at least $18 billion in corporate bonds plus another $9.6 billion in bank loans, and analysts expe…

At first I read “enormous longterm commitments” as customers committing to OpenAI. But you are saying it’s the reverse.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#604
post #572
post #318

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be fair, I would get a ton of value out of someone selling dollars for 20 cents apiece. But ya, OAI is clearly making a ton of revenue. That doesn't mean it's a good business, though. Giving them a 20 year horizon, shareholders will be very upset unless the firm can deliver about a trillion in profit , not revenue, to justify the 100B (so far) in investment, and that would barely beat the long term s&p 500 average…

People did say the same thing about Youtube, which was unprofitable and extremely expensive to run in the early years. I remember thinking everyone would leave once ads were added. At youtube's ad income rate (~$13/year), the current (but growing) ~800 million chatgpt users would add ~$10 billion. At facebook's rate (~$40-50/year) $32-40 billion. Potentially, an assistant would be more integrated into your life than…

the problem with the YouTube analogy is that media platforms have significant network affects that NN providers don't. OpenAI can't command a premium because every year that goes by the cost to train an equivalent model to theirs decreases.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#605
post #321

I've seen a rumor going around that OpenAI hasn't had a successful pre-training run since mid 2024. This seemed insane to me but if you give ChatGPT 5.1 a query about current events and instruct it not to use the internet it will tell you its knowledge cutoff is June 2024. Not sure if maybe that's just the smaller model or what. But I don't think it's a good sign to get that from any frontier model today, that's 18 m…

I recall reading that Google had similar 'delay' issues when crawling the web in 2000 and early 2001, but they managed to survive. That said, OpenAI seems much less differentiated (now) than Google was back then, so this may be a much riskier situation.

Yes, the story was something like Google hadn’t rebuilt their index for something like 8 months if I recall correctly

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#606

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Being an insane brand means literally nothing if people can trivially switch to competitors, which they can. There isn't even a tenth of enough money if you group together all of advertising. Like, the entire industry. Ads is a bad, bad plan that wont work. Advertising is also extremely overvalued. And even at it's overvalued price tag, it's nowhere near enough.

It's Coca Cola vs Pepsi. Yes some might even say Pepsi has been shown to taste better, but people still buy loads of Coke. Of course the tech savvy enterprises will use the best models. But the plumber down the road doesn't care whether she asks Gemini or ChatGPT about the sizing of some fittings.

right, but casual users aren't paying (and won't ever)

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#607

OpenAI is basically just Netscape at this point. An innovative product with no means of significant revenue generation. One one side it's up against large competitors with an already established user base and product line that can simply bundle their AI offerings into those products. Google will do just what Microsoft did with Internet Explorer and bundle Gemini in for 'Free' with their already other profitable produ…

> with no means of significant revenue generation. OpenAI will top $20 billion in ARR this year, which certainly seems like significant revenue generation. [1] [1] https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/06/sam-altman-says-openai-will-...

Revenue != Profit

OpenAI is hemorrhaging cash at an astronomical rate.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#608

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every so often I try out a GPT model for coding again, and manage to get tricked by the very sparse conversation style into thinking it's great for a couple of days (when it says nothing and then finishes producing code with a 'I did x, y and z' with no stupid 'you're absolutely' right sucking up and it works, it feels very good). But I always realize it's just smoke and mirrors - the actual quality of the code and t…

I am a novice programmer -- I have programmed for 35+ years now but I build and lose the skills moving between coder to manager to sales -- multiple times. Fresh IC since last week again :) I have coded starting with Fortran, RPG and COBOL and I have also coded Java and Scala. I know modern architecture but haven't done enough grunt work to make it work or to debug (and fix) a complex problem. Needless to say sometim…

Breaking down requirements, functionality and changes into smaller chunks is going to give you better results with most of the tools. If it can complete smaller tasks in the context window, the quality will likely hold up. My go to has been to develop task documents with multiple pieces of functionality and sub tasks. Build one piece of functionality at a time. Commit, clear context and start the next piece of functionality. If something goes off the rails, back up to the commit, fix and rebase future changes or abandon and branch.

That’s if I want quality. If I just want to prototype and don’t care, I’ll let it go. See what I like, don’t like and start over as detailed above.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#609

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every so often I try out a GPT model for coding again, and manage to get tricked by the very sparse conversation style into thinking it's great for a couple of days (when it says nothing and then finishes producing code with a 'I did x, y and z' with no stupid 'you're absolutely' right sucking up and it works, it feels very good). But I always realize it's just smoke and mirrors - the actual quality of the code and t…

I am a novice programmer -- I have programmed for 35+ years now but I build and lose the skills moving between coder to manager to sales -- multiple times. Fresh IC since last week again :) I have coded starting with Fortran, RPG and COBOL and I have also coded Java and Scala. I know modern architecture but haven't done enough grunt work to make it work or to debug (and fix) a complex problem. Needless to say sometim…

> I was more prepared and asked it to improve class by class, and for whatever reasons I got better answers

There is a learning curve with all of the LLM tools. It's basically required for everyone to go through the trough of disillusionment when you realize that the vibecoding magic isn't quite real in the way the influencers talk about it.

You still have to be involved in the process, steer it in the right direction, and review the output. Rejecting a lot of output and re-prompting is normal. From reading comments I think it's common for new users to expect perfection and reject the tools when it's not vibecoding the app for them autonomously. To be fair, that's what the hype influencers promised, but it's not real.

If you use it as an extension of yourself that can type and search faster, while also acknowledging that mistakes are common and you need to be on top of it, there is some interesting value for some tasks.

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