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OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

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Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#591

Post by HDThoreaun »

tartoran wrote: post #370
bgirard wrote: post #290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a fun trope to repeat but that's not what OpenAI is doing. I get a ton of value from ChatGPT and Codex from my subscription. As long as the inference is not done at a lost this analogy doesn't hold. They're not paying me to use it. They are generating output that is very valuable to me. Much more than my subscription cost. I've been able to help setup cross app automation for my partner's business, remodel my ho…

There's no doubt you're getting a lot of value from OpenAI, I am too. And yes the subscription is a lot more value than what you pay for. That's because they're burning investor's money and it's not something that is sustainable. Once the money runs out they'll have to jack up prices and that's the moment of truth, we'll see what users are willing to pay for what. Google or another company may be able to provide all…

Inference is profitable for openai as far as I can tell. They dont need to jack up prices much, what they really need is users who are paying/consuming ads. Theyre burning money on free tier users and data center expansion so they can serve more users.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#592

Post by HDThoreaun »

rglullis wrote: post #311
bgirard wrote: post #290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a fun trope to repeat but that's not what OpenAI is doing. I get a ton of value from ChatGPT and Codex from my subscription. As long as the inference is not done at a lost this analogy doesn't hold. They're not paying me to use it. They are generating output that is very valuable to me. Much more than my subscription cost. I've been able to help setup cross app automation for my partner's business, remodel my ho…

> They're not paying me to use it. Of course they are. > As long as the inference is not done at a loss. If making money on inference alone was possible, there would be a dozen different smaller providers who'd be taking the open weights models and offering that as service. But it seems that every provider is anchored at $20/month, so you can bet that none of them can go any lower.

The open models suck. AWS hosts them for less than closed models cost but no ones uses them, because they suck.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#593

Post by cruffle_duffle »

cmiles8 wrote: post #433
riffraff wrote: post #400

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But ChatGPT is an insane brand I mean, so was netscape.

This. Netscape was THE browser in the early phases of the Internet. Then Microsoft just packaged IE into Windows and it was game over. The brand means nothing long term. If Google broadly incorporates Gemini into all the Google-owned things everyone already has then it’s game over for OpenAI. The mass commoditization of the tech is rapidly driving AI to be a feature, not a product. And Google is very strongly positio…

To be completely fair the later versions of Netscape were increasingly giant bloated piles of crap while IE slowly caught up and surpassed in terms of speed and features. The first versions IE were only good for downloading Netscape.

Netscape, to a large degree, killed itself.

Not to say IE turned into anything good though. But it did have its hayday.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#595

Post by HDThoreaun »

echelon wrote: post #246
edouard-harris wrote: post #226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> with no means of significant revenue generation. OpenAI will top $20 billion in ARR this year, which certainly seems like significant revenue generation. [1] [1] https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/06/sam-altman-says-openai-will-...

In 2024, OpenAI claimed the bulk of its revenue was 70-80% through consumer ChatGPT subscriptions. That's wildly impressive. But now they've had an order of magnitude revenue growth. That can't still be consumer subscriptions, right? They've had to have saturated that? I haven't seen reports of the revenue breakdown, but I imagine it must be enterprise sales. If it's enterprise sales, I'd imagine that was sold to F50…

consumer subs arent even close to saturated and business subs are where the real money is anyway. Most white collar workers are still on free tier copilot, not paying openai.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#596

Post by alexfringes »

wahnfrieden wrote: post #496
manmal wrote: post #461

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well you can’t edit files while Xcode is building or the compiler will throw up, so I‘m wondering what you mean here. You can’t even run swift test in 2 agents at the same time, because swift serializes access for some reason. Whenever I have more than 1 agent run Swift tests in a loop to fix things, and another one to build something, the latter will disturb the former and I need to cancel. And then there’s a lot of…

Yes these are horrible pain points. I can only hope Apple improves this stuff if it's true that they're adding MCP support throughout the OS which should require better multi-agent handling You can use worktrees to have multiple copies building or testing at once I'm a solo dev so I rarely use some git features like rebase. I work out of trunk only without branches (if I need a branch, I use a feature flag). So I can…

How can I get in touch?

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#597

Post by andai »

kovezd wrote: post #557
embedding-shape wrote: post #530

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And this is relevant how? That interview is 1.5 hours, not something you just casually drop a link to and say "here, listen to this to even understand what point I was trying to make"

You can now ask Gemini, about a video. Very useful!

I have a few lines of "download subtitles with yt-dlp", "remove the VTT crap", and "shove it into llm with a summarization prompt and/or my question appended", but I mostly use Gemini for that now. (And I use it for basically nothing else, oddly enough. They just have the monopoly on access to YouTube transcripts ;)

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#598

Post by HDThoreaun »

mips_avatar wrote: post #498
felixfurtak wrote: post #213

OpenAI is basically just Netscape at this point. An innovative product with no means of significant revenue generation. One one side it's up against large competitors with an already established user base and product line that can simply bundle their AI offerings into those products. Google will do just what Microsoft did with Internet Explorer and bundle Gemini in for 'Free' with their already other profitable produ…

Gemini can't be bundled for free unless they figure out how to make gemini flash 3.0 significantly cheaper to inference than 2.5

It can be bundled for "free" if they raise the price of google workspace. LLMs are right now most valuable as an enterprise productivity software assistant. Very useful to have a full suite of enterprise productivity software in order to sell them.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#599

Post by cruffle_duffle »

Spooky23 wrote: post #239
ascorbic wrote: post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> An innovative product with no means of significant revenue generation. OpenAI has annualized revenue of $20bn. That's not Google, but it's not insignificant.

Google is embedding Gemini into Chrome Developer Tools. You can ask for an analysis of individual network calls in your browser by clicking a checkbox. That's just an example of the power of platform. They seem to be better at integration than Microsoft. OpenAI has this amazing technology and a great app, but the company feels like some sort of financial engineering nightmare.

To be fair the CEO of OpenAI is also a crypto bro. Financial engineering is right up their wheelhouse.
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