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OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

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Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#461

Post by manmal »

wahnfrieden wrote: post #423
manmal wrote: post #393

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How can you stand the excruciating slowness? Claude Code is running circles around codex. The most mundane tasks make it think for a minute before doing anything.

By learning to parallelize my work. This also solved my problem with slow Xcode builds.

Well you can’t edit files while Xcode is building or the compiler will throw up, so I‘m wondering what you mean here. You can’t even run swift test in 2 agents at the same time, because swift serializes access for some reason.

Whenever I have more than 1 agent run Swift tests in a loop to fix things, and another one to build something, the latter will disturb the former and I need to cancel.

And then there’s a lot of work that can’t be parallelized, like complex git rebases - well you can do other things in a worktree, but good luck merging that after you‘ve changed everything in the repo. Codex is really really bad at git.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#462

Post by danans »

mattmaroon wrote: post #201
danans wrote: post #190

This will keep going around the table, next it might be a Chinese company that demos 98% of the capability at 1/4 the price. The objective of being at the cutting edge of LLM performance seems like more of a marketing advantage in the game of sucking in more capital for a moatless technology.

Which makes me think they are getting the strategy exactly backwards. My problem is usually not something that would be solved by the AI being better but instead by it being more integrated into my life.

> Which makes me think they are getting the strategy exactly backwards

The strategy is to take an admittedly cool technology and spin a dramatic story around it to raise capital, while providing a rationale for workforce reductions. Remember that investment chases stories, not actual results (whether financial or societal).

When enough capital is there, it will be considered "too big to fail". Maybe it's already there.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#463

Post by felixfurtak »

deathhand wrote: post #438
felixfurtak wrote: post #312

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All of which you will be able to do with your bundled assistant in the not-to-distant future. OpenAI is a basket case: - Too expensive and inconvenient to compete with commoditized, bundled assistants (from Google/ Microsoft/Apple) - Too closed to compete with cheap, customizable open-source models - Too dependent on partners - Too late to establish its own platform lock-in It echoes what happened to: - Netscape (squ…

So why does Salesforce still prosper? They are just a fancy database.

Good question. Salesforce does well because they provide the application layer to the data.

The WWW in the 1990s was an explosion of data. To the casual observer, the web-browser appeared to be the internet. But it wasn't and in itself could never make money (See Netscape). The internet was the data.

The people who build the infrastructure for the WWW (Worldcom, Nortel, Cisco, etc.) found the whole enterprise to be an extremely loss-making activity. Many of them failed.

Google succeeded because it provided an application layer of search that helped people to navigate the WWW and ultimately helped people make sense of it. It helped people to connect with businesses. Selling subtle advertising along the way is what made them successful.

Facebook did the same with social media. It allowed people to connect with other people and monetized that.

Over time, as they became more dominant, the advertising got less subtle and then the income really started to flow.

Salesforce is similar in that it helps businesses connect with and do business with each other. They just use a subscription model, rather than advertising. This works because the businesses that use it can see a direct link to it and their profitability.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#464

Post by tim333 »

mr_00ff00 wrote: post #396
jdoliner wrote: post #274

I've seen a rumor going around that OpenAI hasn't had a successful pre-training run since mid 2024. This seemed insane to me but if you give ChatGPT 5.1 a query about current events and instruct it not to use the internet it will tell you its knowledge cutoff is June 2024. Not sure if maybe that's just the smaller model or what. But I don't think it's a good sign to get that from any frontier model today, that's 18 m…

What is a pre-training run?

If you've an hour to spare this Karpathy video is good at explaining how it all works https://youtu.be/7xTGNNLPyMI

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#465

Post by mudkipdev »

encomiast wrote: post #457
MikeTheGreat wrote: post #444

(My apologies if this was already asked - this thread is huge and Find-In-Page-ing for variations of "pre-train", "pretrain", and "train" turned up nothing about this. If this was already asked I'd super-appreciate a pointer to the discussion :) ) Genuine question: How is it possible for OpenAI to NOT successfully pre-train a model? I understand it's very difficult, but they've already successfully done this and they…

I’m not sure what ‘successfully’ means in this context. If it means training a model that is noticeably better than previous models, it’s not hard to see how that is challenging.

OpenAI allegedly has not completed a successful pretraining run since 4o

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#466

Post by octoberfranklin »

throwaway314155 wrote: post #378
jdoliner wrote: post #274

I've seen a rumor going around that OpenAI hasn't had a successful pre-training run since mid 2024. This seemed insane to me but if you give ChatGPT 5.1 a query about current events and instruct it not to use the internet it will tell you its knowledge cutoff is June 2024. Not sure if maybe that's just the smaller model or what. But I don't think it's a good sign to get that from any frontier model today, that's 18 m…

It has no idea what it's own knowledge cutoff is.

Knowledge cutoff date is usually part of the system prompt.

Helps you get useful answers like "I don't know that's too recent" when you ask questions like "who won the basketball game last night".

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#467

Post by jasondigitized »

deathhand wrote: post #438
felixfurtak wrote: post #312

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All of which you will be able to do with your bundled assistant in the not-to-distant future. OpenAI is a basket case: - Too expensive and inconvenient to compete with commoditized, bundled assistants (from Google/ Microsoft/Apple) - Too closed to compete with cheap, customizable open-source models - Too dependent on partners - Too late to establish its own platform lock-in It echoes what happened to: - Netscape (squ…

So why does Salesforce still prosper? They are just a fancy database.

Because they locked-in a ton of enterprise customers and have an army of certified consultants who build custom solutions for you.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#468

Post by octoberfranklin »

tofuahdude wrote: post #382
bibimsz wrote: post #352

Earlier quoted context omitted.

anecdotal, but my wife wasn't interested in switching to claude from chatgpt. as far as she's concerned chatgpt knows her, and she's got her assistant perfectly tuned to her liking.

Same situation over here. Multiple family members only know chatgpt / think that chatgpt knows them and have never heard of the competitors.

[flagged]

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#469

Post by danielodievich »

Last week there we had a customer request that landed in our support on a feature that I partially wrote and wrote a pile of public documentation on. Support engineer ran customer query through Claude (trained on our public and internal docs) and it very, very confidently made a bunch of stuff up in the response. It was quite plausible sounding and it would have been great if it worked that way, but it didn't. While explaining why it was wrong in a Slack thread with support engineer and another engineer who also worked on that feature, he ran Augment (that has full source code of the feature) which promptly and also very confidently made up more stuff (but different!). Some choice bleeding eye emojis were exchanged. I'm going to continue to use my own intelligence, thank you.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#470

Post by tvshtr »

golfer wrote: post #102
spwa4 wrote: post #46

We are in a pretty amazing situation. If you're willing to go down 10% in benchmark scores, you easily 25% your costs. Now with Deepseek 3.2 another shot across the bow. But if the ML, if SOTA intelligence becomes basically a price war, won't that mean that Google (and OpenAI and Microsoft and any other big model) lose big? Especially Google, as the margin even Google cloud (famously a lot lower than Google's other b…

Google trains its own AI with TPU's, which are designed in house. Google doesn't have to pay retail rates for Nvidia GPUs, like other hyperscalers in the AI rat race. Therefore, Google trains its AI for cheaper than everyone else. I think everyone else "loses big" other than Google.

Well, those who are aware of this definitely know what it is leading to. But most will act shocked surely.
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