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Three Years from GPT-3 to Gemini 3

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Re: Three Years from GPT-3 to Gemini 3

#171

Post by mirekrusin »

Madmallard wrote: post #157
stavros wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's gotten more and more shippable, especially with the latest generation (Codex 5.1, Sonnet 4.5, now Opus 4.5). My metric is "wtfs per line", and it's been decreasing rapidly. My current preference is Codex 5.1 (Sonnet 4.5 as a close second, though it got really dumb today for "some reason"). It's been good to the point where I shipped multiple projects with it without a problem (with eg https://pine.town being one…

It's not really any different in my experience

Stochastic parrot? Autocomplete on steroids? Fancy autocorrect? Bullshit generator? AI snake oil? Statistical mimicry?

You don't hear that anymore.

Feels like whole generation of skeptics evaporated.

Re: Three Years from GPT-3 to Gemini 3

#172

Post by bossyTeacher »

jcheng wrote: post #76
PostOnce wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A question for the not-too-distant future: What use is an LLM in an illiterate society?

Automatic speech recognition and speech to text models are also growing up real fast.

Thinking that speech recognise is a solution to the illiterate is like thinking that low code tools can replace traditional programming tools. The bottleneck is and has always been the cognitive capacity limits of your average human. No interface can solve the issue of humans being illiterate

Re: Three Years from GPT-3 to Gemini 3

#173

Post by bigstrat2003 »

mirekrusin wrote: post #171
Madmallard wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not really any different in my experience

Stochastic parrot? Autocomplete on steroids? Fancy autocorrect? Bullshit generator? AI snake oil? Statistical mimicry? You don't hear that anymore. Feels like whole generation of skeptics evaporated.

I certainly hold those opinions still, because the models still have yet to prove they are anything worth a person's time. I don't bother posting that because there's no way an AI hype person and I are ever going to convince each other, so what's the point?

The skeptics haven't evaporated, they just aren't bothering to try to talk to you any more because they don't think there's value in it.

Re: Three Years from GPT-3 to Gemini 3

#174

Post by bigstrat2003 »

TheRoque wrote: post #130
emodendroket wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

PowerShell is completely suitable. People are just used to bash and don’t feel the incentive to switch, especially with Windows becoming less relevant outside of desktop development.

Powershell feels like it's not built to be used in a practical way, unlike Unix tools that have been built and used by and for developers, which then feels nice because they are actually used a lot, and feel good to use. Like, to set an env variable permanently, you either have to go through 5 GUI interfaces, or use this PS command: [Environment]::SetEnvironmentVariable ("INCLUDE", $env:INCLUDE, [System.EnvironmentVa…

What feels good to use is very, very dependent on personal preference. I think Powershell is much more pleasant to use than bash. You obviously disagree, but bear in mind that not everyone shares your preferences.

Re: Three Years from GPT-3 to Gemini 3

#175

Post by giuscri »

AstroBen wrote: post #161
simonw wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's an alternative way to think about that: how long until the value I can deliver as a developer goes up by a factor of 2, or a factor of 10? How many companies that previously would never have dreamed of commissioning custom software are now going to be in the market for it, because they don't have to spend hundreds of thousands of dollars and wait 6 months just to see if their investment has a chance of paying…

The value you can deliver doesn't necessarily correlate with your compensation, though Cleaning staff also offer a business a huge amount of value. No-one wants to eat at a restaurant that's dirty and stinks. Unfortunately the staff aren't paid very well

depends if you’ll still need skills to deliver or if it will be something anyone with some interest is able to learn in few months

Re: Three Years from GPT-3 to Gemini 3

#176

Post by bigstrat2003 »

OccamsMirror wrote: post #123
yeasku wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Big time.

I'm not a true believer, but even I wouldn't say they have hit a wall. What makes you say that?

They haven't improved at all since then in my experience. I poke at them every now and then and they still can't refrain from feeding me false info (and likely never will be able to, because they are stochastic parrots without any actual understanding). They are useless to me because I will take more time checking their output than I will just doing the task myself.

Re: Three Years from GPT-3 to Gemini 3

#177

Post by weatherlite »

TheRoque wrote: post #132

So when should we start to be worried, as developers ? Like, I don't use these tools yet for cost + security. But you can see it's getting there, mostly. It could take a day before to find a complex algorithm, understand it, and implement it to your code, now you can just ask an AI to do it for you and it could succeed in a few minutes. How long before the amount of engineers needed to maintaint a product is divived…

> So when should we start to be worried, as developers ?

I've been worrying ever since chatgpt 3 came out, it was shit at everything but it was amazing as well. And in the last 3 years the progress was incredible. I don't know if you "should" worry, worrying for the sake of it isn't helping much, but yes we should all be mentally prepared to the possibility we won't be able to make a living doing this X years from now. Could be 5, could be 10 , could be less than 5 even.

Re: Three Years from GPT-3 to Gemini 3

#178

Post by Culonavirus »

tempestn wrote: post #83
stavros wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's gotten more and more shippable, especially with the latest generation (Codex 5.1, Sonnet 4.5, now Opus 4.5). My metric is "wtfs per line", and it's been decreasing rapidly. My current preference is Codex 5.1 (Sonnet 4.5 as a close second, though it got really dumb today for "some reason"). It's been good to the point where I shipped multiple projects with it without a problem (with eg https://pine.town being one…

Have you tried Gemini 3 yet? I haven't done any coding with it, but on other tasks I've been impressed compared to gpt 5 and Sonnet 4.5.

The computer science field is going to be an absolute shitshow within 5 years (it already kinda is). On one side you'll have ADHD dog attention span zoomers trying out all these nth party model apis and tools every 5 seconds (switching them like socks, insisting the latest one is better, but ultimately producing the same slop) and on the other side you'll have all these applied math gurus squeezing out the last bits of usable AI compute on the planet... and nothing else.

We used to joke that "The internet was a mistake.", making fun of the bad parts... but LLMs take the fucking cake. No intelligent beings, no sentient robots, just unlimited amounts of slop.

The tech basically stopped evolving right around the point of it being good enough for spam and slop, but not going any further, there are no cures no new laws of physics or math or anything else being discovered by these things. All AI use in science I can see is based on finding patters in data, not intelligent thought (as in novel ideas). What a bust.

Re: Three Years from GPT-3 to Gemini 3

#179

Post by reverius42 »

tehjoker wrote: post #75
mavhc wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's why you phrase it as "woke liberals turning your children gay!" In USA K-12 education costs about $300k 350 million people, want to get 175 million of them better educated, but we've already spent $52 trillion dollars on educating them so far

The people most vociferously for conservative values are middle class, small business owners, or upper class, though the true upper class are libertine (notice who participated in the Epstein affair). The working class is filled with all kinds of very diverse people united by the fact they have to work for a living and often can't afford e.g. expensive weddings. Some of them are religious, a whole bunch aren't. It's…

> Their unions were also destroyed.

By policy changes giving unions less power, enacted by politicians that were mostly voted for by a majority, which is mostly composed of the working class. Was this people voting against their interests? (Almost literally yes, but you could argue that their ideological preference for weaker unions trumps their economic interest in stronger unions.)

Re: Three Years from GPT-3 to Gemini 3

#180

Post by reverius42 »

brightball wrote: post #154
krainboltgreene wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's so hilarious to look at 10k years of education history and be like "Nah, funding doesn't make a difference." Incredible.

The US already spends more per student than almost any other country (5th globally) and the outcomes are getting constantly worse. It’s not a funding problem.

A lot of that funding in the US goes to pay teachers money they then use to pay for health insurance -- which in other countries is often provided by the tax base at large and not counted as an education expense.
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