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Three Years from GPT-3 to Gemini 3

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Re: Three Years from GPT-3 to Gemini 3

#151

Post by JumpCrisscross »

adamors wrote: post #46
mynameisjody wrote: post #43

Every time I see an article like this, it's always missing --- but is it any good, is it correct? They always show you the part that is impressive - "it walked the tricky tightrope of figuring out what might be an interesting topic and how to execute it with the data it had - one of the hardest things to teach." Then it goes on, "After a couple of vague commands (“build it out more, make it better”) I got a 14 page p…

> Things I don't understand must be great? Couple it with the tendency to please the user by all means and it ends up lieing to you but you won’t ever realise, unless you double check.

> Couple it with the tendency to please the user by all means

Why aren't foundational model companies training separate enterprise and consumer models from the get go?

Re: Three Years from GPT-3 to Gemini 3

#152

Post by emodendroket »

TheRoque wrote: post #130
emodendroket wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

PowerShell is completely suitable. People are just used to bash and don’t feel the incentive to switch, especially with Windows becoming less relevant outside of desktop development.

Powershell feels like it's not built to be used in a practical way, unlike Unix tools that have been built and used by and for developers, which then feels nice because they are actually used a lot, and feel good to use. Like, to set an env variable permanently, you either have to go through 5 GUI interfaces, or use this PS command: [Environment]::SetEnvironmentVariable ("INCLUDE", $env:INCLUDE, [System.EnvironmentVa…

No, they don't all look like that, the brackets are an indication you're reaching into .NET and calling .NET stuff instead of "native" PowerShell commands which take the form Verb-Noun. Which can be a legitimate thing to do, but isn't the first choice and seems like an example deliberately chosen to make PS look more awkward than it is. I question whether, for this particular example, `echo 'export MY_VAR="my_value"\n' >> ~/.bashrc && source ~/.bashrc` is really all that intuitive either (and hopefully you didn't accidentally write `>` instead of `>>` and nuke the rest of the file).

Re: Three Years from GPT-3 to Gemini 3

#153

Post by simonw »

TheRoque wrote: post #137
simonw wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's an alternative way to think about that: how long until the value I can deliver as a developer goes up by a factor of 2, or a factor of 10? How many companies that previously would never have dreamed of commissioning custom software are now going to be in the market for it, because they don't have to spend hundreds of thousands of dollars and wait 6 months just to see if their investment has a chance of paying…

The thing is that the world is already flooded by software, games, websites, everyone is just battling for attention. The demand for developers cannot rise if consumers have a limited amount of money and time anyways.

Every company I have ever worked for had years of work on their backlog that they didn't have the capacity to handle.

Re: Three Years from GPT-3 to Gemini 3

#154

Post by brightball »

krainboltgreene wrote: post #115
brightball wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Investing in education is a trap because no matter how much money is pumped into the current model, it’s not making a difference. We need different models and then to invest in the successes, over and over again…forever.

It's so hilarious to look at 10k years of education history and be like "Nah, funding doesn't make a difference." Incredible.

The US already spends more per student than almost any other country (5th globally) and the outcomes are getting constantly worse.

It’s not a funding problem.

Re: Three Years from GPT-3 to Gemini 3

#156

Post by TheRoque »

simonw wrote: post #153
TheRoque wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The thing is that the world is already flooded by software, games, websites, everyone is just battling for attention. The demand for developers cannot rise if consumers have a limited amount of money and time anyways.

Every company I have ever worked for had years of work on their backlog that they didn't have the capacity to handle.

The backlog is here because they didn't care to fix it, because it wasn't that important and it's not what's causing the business to fail. That's not what's gonna drive employment.

Re: Three Years from GPT-3 to Gemini 3

#157

Post by Madmallard »

stavros wrote: post #50
mynameisjody wrote: post #43

Every time I see an article like this, it's always missing --- but is it any good, is it correct? They always show you the part that is impressive - "it walked the tricky tightrope of figuring out what might be an interesting topic and how to execute it with the data it had - one of the hardest things to teach." Then it goes on, "After a couple of vague commands (“build it out more, make it better”) I got a 14 page p…

It's gotten more and more shippable, especially with the latest generation (Codex 5.1, Sonnet 4.5, now Opus 4.5). My metric is "wtfs per line", and it's been decreasing rapidly. My current preference is Codex 5.1 (Sonnet 4.5 as a close second, though it got really dumb today for "some reason"). It's been good to the point where I shipped multiple projects with it without a problem (with eg https://pine.town being one…

It's not really any different in my experience

Re: Three Years from GPT-3 to Gemini 3

#158

Post by onion2k »

Herring wrote: post #22
gallerdude wrote: post #5

It is interesting that most of our modes of interaction with AI is still just textboxes. The only big UX change in that the last three years has been the introduction of the Claude Code / OpenAI Codex tools. They feel amazing to use, like you're working with another independent mind. I am curious what the user interfaces of AI in the future will be, I think whoever can crack that will create immense value.

Text is very information-dense. I'd much rather skim a transcript in a few seconds than watch a video. There's a reason keyboards haven't changed much since the 1860s when typewriters were invented. We keep coming up with other fun UI like touchscreens and VR, but pretty much all real work happens on boring old keyboards.

No matter how good a keyboard we might be able to invent it'll always be slower than a direct brain interface, and we have those, in a highly experimental way, now.

One day we will look back at improvements to keyboards and touchscreens as the 'faster horse' of the physical interface era.

Re: Three Years from GPT-3 to Gemini 3

#159

Post by Mistletoe »

Herring wrote: post #22
gallerdude wrote: post #5

It is interesting that most of our modes of interaction with AI is still just textboxes. The only big UX change in that the last three years has been the introduction of the Claude Code / OpenAI Codex tools. They feel amazing to use, like you're working with another independent mind. I am curious what the user interfaces of AI in the future will be, I think whoever can crack that will create immense value.

Text is very information-dense. I'd much rather skim a transcript in a few seconds than watch a video. There's a reason keyboards haven't changed much since the 1860s when typewriters were invented. We keep coming up with other fun UI like touchscreens and VR, but pretty much all real work happens on boring old keyboards.

And anyone that has ever tried to talk to Siri or Alexa would prefer a keyboard for anything but the most simple questions. I don't think that will change for a long time if ever. The lack of errors and being able to say exactly what you want is so valuable.

Re: Three Years from GPT-3 to Gemini 3

#160

Post by AstroBen »

TheRoque wrote: post #132

So when should we start to be worried, as developers ? Like, I don't use these tools yet for cost + security. But you can see it's getting there, mostly. It could take a day before to find a complex algorithm, understand it, and implement it to your code, now you can just ask an AI to do it for you and it could succeed in a few minutes. How long before the amount of engineers needed to maintaint a product is divived…

I can make strong arguments for both "you dont need be worried at all anytime soon" and "we're screwed"

Truth is no-one has any idea. Just keep an eye on the job market - it's very unlikely anthing major will happen overnight

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