Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Three Years from GPT-3 to Gemini 3

oneusefulthing.org

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

131–140 of 336 posts

Re: Three Years from GPT-3 to Gemini 3

#131

Post by michaelmrose »

throwawaylaptop wrote: post #122
taurath wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But holy shit is it also a funding issue when teachers make nothing.

I date a lot of teachers. My last one was in the San Ramon (CA) Valley School district, she makes about $90k a year at 34 years old. Talking to her basically makes me want to homeschool my kids to make sure someone like her isn't their teacher. Paying teachers more won't do ANYTHING until we become a lot more selective about who gets to become and stay a teacher. It can't be like most government jobs where getting it…

There is so much wrong with this. You cannot judge the class of teachers based on a small sample of your taste in women. You didn't actually communicate anything materially wrong with her. You listed a high income area to make us think teachers are overpaid but we have no insight by default into median income in the area or her qualifications.

Lastly its entirely impossible to attract better candidates without more money its just not how the world works.

For reference the median household income in san ramon is about 200k so 2 teachers would be below average. A cop with her experience in the same town makes 158k

Re: Three Years from GPT-3 to Gemini 3

#132

Post by TheRoque »

So when should we start to be worried, as developers ? Like, I don't use these tools yet for cost + security. But you can see it's getting there, mostly. It could take a day before to find a complex algorithm, understand it, and implement it to your code, now you can just ask an AI to do it for you and it could succeed in a few minutes. How long before the amount of engineers needed to maintaint a product is divived by 2 ? By 10 ? How about all the boring dev jobs that were previously needed, but not so much anymore ? Like, basic CRUD applications. It's seriously worrying, I don't really know what to think.

Re: Three Years from GPT-3 to Gemini 3

#133

Post by simonw »

TheRoque wrote: post #132

So when should we start to be worried, as developers ? Like, I don't use these tools yet for cost + security. But you can see it's getting there, mostly. It could take a day before to find a complex algorithm, understand it, and implement it to your code, now you can just ask an AI to do it for you and it could succeed in a few minutes. How long before the amount of engineers needed to maintaint a product is divived…

Here's an alternative way to think about that: how long until the value I can deliver as a developer goes up by a factor of 2, or a factor of 10?

How many companies that previously would never have dreamed of commissioning custom software are now going to be in the market for it, because they don't have to spend hundreds of thousands of dollars and wait 6 months just to see if their investment has a chance of paying off or not?

Re: Three Years from GPT-3 to Gemini 3

#134

Post by remir »

gallerdude wrote: post #5

It is interesting that most of our modes of interaction with AI is still just textboxes. The only big UX change in that the last three years has been the introduction of the Claude Code / OpenAI Codex tools. They feel amazing to use, like you're working with another independent mind. I am curious what the user interfaces of AI in the future will be, I think whoever can crack that will create immense value.

Grok has been integrated into Tesla vehicles, and I've had several voice interactions with it recently. Initially, I thought it was just a gimmick, but the voice interactions are great and quite responsive. I've found myself using it multiple times to get updates on the news or quick questions about topics I'm interested in.

Re: Three Years from GPT-3 to Gemini 3

#135

Post by sib »

lacoolj wrote: post #59
eximius wrote: post #55

How many trillions of dollars have we spent on these things? Would we not expect similar levels of progress in other industries given such massive investment?

I wonder how much is spent refining oil and how much that industry has evolved. Or mass transit. Or food.

Or on "a cure for cancer" (according to Gemini, $2.2T 2024 US dollars...)

Re: Three Years from GPT-3 to Gemini 3

#136

Post by TheRoque »

randyrand wrote: post #39

For Caude Code, Antigrav, etc, do people really just let an LLM loose on their own personal system? I feel like these should run in a cloud enviroment, or at least on some specific machine where I don't care what it does.

That's also why I don't use these tools that much. You have big AI companies, known for harvesting humongous amount of data, illegally, not disclosing datasets. And they you give them control of your computer, without any way to cleanly audit what's going in and out. It's seriously insane to me that most developers seem to not care about that. Like, we've all been educated to not push any critical info to a server (private key and other secrets), but these tools do just that, and you can't even trust what it's gonna be used for. On top of that, it's also giving your only value (writing good code) to a third party company that will steal it to replace you with it.

Re: Three Years from GPT-3 to Gemini 3

#137

Post by TheRoque »

simonw wrote: post #133
TheRoque wrote: post #132

So when should we start to be worried, as developers ? Like, I don't use these tools yet for cost + security. But you can see it's getting there, mostly. It could take a day before to find a complex algorithm, understand it, and implement it to your code, now you can just ask an AI to do it for you and it could succeed in a few minutes. How long before the amount of engineers needed to maintaint a product is divived…

Here's an alternative way to think about that: how long until the value I can deliver as a developer goes up by a factor of 2, or a factor of 10? How many companies that previously would never have dreamed of commissioning custom software are now going to be in the market for it, because they don't have to spend hundreds of thousands of dollars and wait 6 months just to see if their investment has a chance of paying…

The thing is that the world is already flooded by software, games, websites, everyone is just battling for attention. The demand for developers cannot rise if consumers have a limited amount of money and time anyways.

Re: Three Years from GPT-3 to Gemini 3

#138

Post by andy99 »

TheRoque wrote: post #137
simonw wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's an alternative way to think about that: how long until the value I can deliver as a developer goes up by a factor of 2, or a factor of 10? How many companies that previously would never have dreamed of commissioning custom software are now going to be in the market for it, because they don't have to spend hundreds of thousands of dollars and wait 6 months just to see if their investment has a chance of paying…

The thing is that the world is already flooded by software, games, websites, everyone is just battling for attention. The demand for developers cannot rise if consumers have a limited amount of money and time anyways.

I’m less familiar with consumer facing stuff, but even in the last year I’ve seen projects that formerly would have been three people working over multiple sprints turn into something one person could do in an afternoon.

There’s lots of caveats, it’s not everything, but we’re able now to skip a ton of steps. It takes less time now to build up he real software demo than it did before to make the PowerPoint that shows conceptually what the demo would be. In B2C anyway AI has provided a lot of lift.

And I say that as someone generally very sceptical of current AI hype. There’s lots of charlatans but it’s not bs

Re: Three Years from GPT-3 to Gemini 3

#139

Post by gowld »

TheRoque wrote: post #137
simonw wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's an alternative way to think about that: how long until the value I can deliver as a developer goes up by a factor of 2, or a factor of 10? How many companies that previously would never have dreamed of commissioning custom software are now going to be in the market for it, because they don't have to spend hundreds of thousands of dollars and wait 6 months just to see if their investment has a chance of paying…

The thing is that the world is already flooded by software, games, websites, everyone is just battling for attention. The demand for developers cannot rise if consumers have a limited amount of money and time anyways.

Not everything is entertainment. Some software is useful, but buggy or poorly designed.

Yesterday, I was using a slow and poorly organized web app with a fantastic public-facing API server. In one day, I vibe coded an app to provide me with a custom frontend for a use case I cared about, faster and better organized than the official app, and I deployed it to cloud "Serverless" hosting. It used a NodeJS framework and a CSS system I have never learned, and talked to an API I never learned. AI did all the research to find the toolkits and frameworks to use. AI chose the UI layout, color scheme, icons, etc. AI rearranged the UI per my feedback. It added an API debug console and an in-app console log. An AI chatbot helped me investigate bugs and find workarounds. While I was testing the app and generating a punchlist of fix requests, AI was coding the improvements from my previous batch of requests. The edit-compile-test cycle was just a test-test-test cycle until the app was satisfactory.

0 lines of code or config written by me, except vibe instructions for features and debugging conversation.

Is it production quality? No. Was it part of a giant hairy legacy enterprise code base? No. Did it solve a real need? Yes. Did it greatly benefit from being a greenfield standalone app that integrated with extremely well build 3rd party APIs and frameworks? Yes. Is it insecure as all heck thanks to NodeJS? Maybe.

Could a proper developer review it and security-harden it? I believe so. Could a proper develop build the app without AI, including designing and redesigning and repeatedly looping back to the target user for feedback and coding and refactoring in less than a week? No.

Re: Three Years from GPT-3 to Gemini 3

#140

Post by joegibbs »

gallerdude wrote: post #5

It is interesting that most of our modes of interaction with AI is still just textboxes. The only big UX change in that the last three years has been the introduction of the Claude Code / OpenAI Codex tools. They feel amazing to use, like you're working with another independent mind. I am curious what the user interfaces of AI in the future will be, I think whoever can crack that will create immense value.

When we have really fast and good models it will be able to generate a GUI on the fly. It could probably be done now with a fine-tune on some kind of XML-based UI schema or something. I gave it a try but couldn't figure it out entirely, consistency would be an issue too.
Post reply on HN