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Three Years from GPT-3 to Gemini 3

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Re: Three Years from GPT-3 to Gemini 3

#51
post #4

Google's advancement is not just in software, it is also in hardware. They use their own hardware for training as well as inferencing [1]. [1] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/alphabet-just-blew-past-expec...

I remember when Google’s superpower was leveraging commodity hardware.

Someone has to spearhead this thing, don't they?

Other people spearheaded the commodity hardware towards being good enough for the server room. Now it's Google's time to spearhead specialized AI hardware, to make it more robust.

Re: Three Years from GPT-3 to Gemini 3

#52
post #19

I find Gemini 3 to be really good. I'm impressed. However, the responses still seem to be bounded by the existing literature and data. If asked to come up with new ideas to improve on existing results for some math problems, it tends to recite known results only. Maybe I didn't challenge it enough or present problems that have scope for new ideas?

That's the inherent limit on the models, that makes humans still relevant.

With the current state of architectures and training methods - they are very unlikely to be the source of new ideas. They are effectively huge librarians for accumulated knowledge, rather than true AI.

Re: Three Years from GPT-3 to Gemini 3

#53
post #48

Every time I see an article like this, it's always missing --- but is it any good, is it correct? They always show you the part that is impressive - "it walked the tricky tightrope of figuring out what might be an interesting topic and how to execute it with the data it had - one of the hardest things to teach." Then it goes on, "After a couple of vague commands (“build it out more, make it better”) I got a 14 page p…

I think the point is we’re getting there. These models are growing up real fast. Remember 54% of US adults read at or below the equivalent of a sixth-grade level.

> Remember 54% of US adults read at or below the equivalent of a sixth-grade level.

The sane conclusion would be to invest in education, not to dump hundreds of billions of llms, but ok

Re: Three Years from GPT-3 to Gemini 3

#56

Every time I see an article like this, it's always missing --- but is it any good, is it correct? They always show you the part that is impressive - "it walked the tricky tightrope of figuring out what might be an interesting topic and how to execute it with the data it had - one of the hardest things to teach." Then it goes on, "After a couple of vague commands (“build it out more, make it better”) I got a 14 page p…

Truth is you still need human to review all of it, fix it where needed, guide it when it hallucinate and write correct instructions and prompts.

Without knowledge how to use this “PROBALISTIC” slot machine to have better results ypu are only wasting energy those GPUs need to run and answer questions.

Majority of ppl use LLMs incorrectly.

Majority of ppl selling LLMs as a panacea for everyting are lying.

But we need hype or the bubble will burst taking whole market with it, so shuushh me.

Re: Three Years from GPT-3 to Gemini 3

#57
post #53
post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the point is we’re getting there. These models are growing up real fast. Remember 54% of US adults read at or below the equivalent of a sixth-grade level.

> Remember 54% of US adults read at or below the equivalent of a sixth-grade level. The sane conclusion would be to invest in education, not to dump hundreds of billions of llms, but ok

In theory yeah, but in practice 54% will also vote against funding education. Catch-22.

Re: Three Years from GPT-3 to Gemini 3

#58
post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unix CLI utilities have been all text for 50 years. Arguably that is why they are still relevant. Attempts to impose structured data on the paradigm like those in PowerShell have their adherents and can be powerful, but fail when the data doesn't fit the structure. We see similar tendency toward the most general interfaces in "operator mode" and similar the-AI-uses-the-mouse-and-keyboard schemes. It's entirely possib…

Yet the most popular platforms on the planet have people pointing a finger (or several) at a picture. And the most popular media format on the planet is and will be (for the foreseeable future), video. Video is only limited by our capacity to produce enough of it at a decent quality, otherwise humanity is definitely not looking back fondly at BBSes and internet forums (and I say this as someone who loves forums). Gen…

> Video is only limited by our capacity to produce enough of it at a decent quality, otherwise humanity is definitely not looking back fondly at BBSes and internet forums

Video is limited by playback speed. It is a time-dependent format. Efforts can be made to enable video to be viewable at a range of speeds, but they are always somewhat constrained. Controlling video playback to slow down and rewatch certain parts is just not as nice as dealing with the same thing in text (or static images), where it’s much easier to linger and closely inspect parts that you care more about or are struggling to understand. Likewise, it’s easier to skim text than video.

This is why many people prefer transcripts, or articles, or books over videos.

I seriously doubt that people would want to switch text-based forums to video if only video were easier to make. People enjoy writing for the way it inspires a different kind of communication and thought. People like text so much that they write in journals that nobody will ever see, just because it helps them organize their thoughts.

Re: Three Years from GPT-3 to Gemini 3

#59
post #55

How many trillions of dollars have we spent on these things? Would we not expect similar levels of progress in other industries given such massive investment?

I wonder how much is spent refining oil and how much that industry has evolved.

Or mass transit.

Or food.

Re: Three Years from GPT-3 to Gemini 3

#60
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Widespread cognitive atrophy is virtually certain, and part of a longer trend that goes beyond just LLMs. The same is true of other aspects of human wellbeing. Cars and junk food have made the average American much less physically fit than a century ago, but that doesn't mean there aren't lively subcultures around healthy eating and exercise. I suspect there will be growing awareness of cognitive health (beyond tradi…

I'm increasingly seeing this trend towards bimodal distribution. I suppose that future is quite far off, but the change to that may almost be irreversible.

> I'm increasingly seeing this trend towards bimodal distribution

Morlocks & Eloi in the end.

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