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Why AC is cheap, but AC repair is a luxury

a16z.substack.com

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Re: Why AC is cheap, but AC repair is a luxury

#141

Post by locknitpicker »

roenxi wrote: post #138
locknitpicker wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> (...) a multitude of government programs that seek to eliminate extreme poverty, (...) consumer protection policies that make it genuinely expensive (...) I don't think this opinion holds a rational basis. Extreme poverty being a factor in low job demand is an argument for coercing people into performing certain tasks even though they are not economically viable just because it benefits you personally. This is not…

> Being required to dispose of air filters in a landfill is not the reason why you can't afford a repair. It is for someone - the market price is pretty much always going to be around the point where a small increase causes a noticeable drop-off in customers (otherwise the only sensible thing for the seller to do is charge more). If something causes even a relatively small increase in price will mean someone can't af…

> It is for someone - the market price is pretty much always going to be around the point where a small increase causes a noticeable drop-off in customers (otherwise the only sensible thing for the seller to do is charge more).

I don't think this is realistic within the topic of air conditioning. No one is going to go without HVAC because of an hypothetical small increase in hypothetical trash handling fees, and definitely not the people in this thread complaining about regulation.

Re: Why AC is cheap, but AC repair is a luxury

#142

Post by quickthrowman »

landl0rd wrote: post #27
chemotaxis wrote: post #7

That's a lot of economic theorizing, but to me, it doesn't seem to be substantiated all that well. You can just as well argue that labor is getting more expensive in the West because of two non-market pressures. First, we have a multitude of government programs that seek to eliminate extreme poverty, so there are fewer people who are desperate to take any job for any money. Second, you have consumer protection polici…

Why do you think people insist someone needs to be licensed, bonded, and insured? It's not really a quality question, it's CYA, a direct response to the rise of ambulance-chasers and increasingly-ridiculous jury awards. Morgan and Morgan are probably doing as much economic damage here as Baumol.

The HVAC technician working on your home accidentally discharges the propane based coolant while working on your cooling coil in the furnace. The mechanical room fills with flammable gas and then the pilot light for the water heater kicks on, igniting the gas and blowing up your house.

It turns out the technician was working for a shady company that didn’t have liability insurance, now what? Before responding, please read what your homeowners insurance policy says about hiring people to work on your home, then tell me if you’re covered. People always assume it’s lawyers when it’s actually insurance companies mandating risk management.

Re: Why AC is cheap, but AC repair is a luxury

#143

Post by throwawaymobule »

locknitpicker wrote: post #140
water9 wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, because if you get a leak in your air conditioner, instead of just patching the hole and refilling it with coolant, you have to replace your entire system in places like California because they require a more green, less gas, in the name of science, and still completely ignoring the simple fact that it doesn’t make a damn difference because we all live in the same globe. The amount of waste that is generated is…

> Yes, because if you get a leak in your air conditioner, instead of just patching the hole and refilling it with coolant, you have to replace your entire system in places like California because they require a more green, less gas, in the name of science, and still completely ignoring the simple fact that it doesn’t make a damn difference because we all live in the same globe. I don't think you are holding an inform…

A lot of refrigerants have a very high gwp.

Re: Why AC is cheap, but AC repair is a luxury

#144

Post by throwaway173738 »

nunez wrote: post #131
dig1 wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

a16z is heavily long on AI, so this article sounds very biased. From the article: If you live in the United States today, and you accidentally knock a hole in your wall, it’s probably cheaper to buy a flatscreen TV and stick it in front of the hole, compared to hiring a handyman to fix your drywall. Probably because the US has been focused on services for years rather than physical goods production. Everything else i…

> From the article: If you live in the United States today, and you accidentally knock a hole in your wall, it’s probably cheaper to buy a flatscreen TV and stick it in front of the hole, compared to hiring a handyman to fix your drywall. This also isn't true? It costs almost nothing to patch drywall. You can also do this yourself. Unless the point they're making is "TVs are so cheap, you can mount a TV inside of the…

Try hiring someone to do the job. You won’t get out for less than a few hundred.

Re: Why AC is cheap, but AC repair is a luxury

#145

Post by patapong »

otikik wrote: post #112
testdelacc1 wrote: post #52

The author makes an error while explaining Jevons’ Paradox. They say “the cheaper and faster we got at producing coal, the more coal we ended up using”. But that’s not paradoxical at all. That’s basic supply and demand curve from economics 101. It’s exactly what you’d expect. Whereas if you take the extraordinarily difficult step of opening Wikipedia ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox ), you understand th…

> price per token, which has fallen. I think that statement is incomplete. It's cheaper because the AI providers are subsidizing the queries by burning cash in order to gain market share. So it's not a price , it's a subsidized and temporary price. Which will likely go up once burnable money runs out / the providers switch from "market acquisition" to "let's try to make this thing profitable at all".

I'm not sure this is true anymore. Anthropic e.g. claims that each model is profitable, seen over its lifetime. There are also a ton of providers of open-source models that are popping up that are hosting models for very cheap prices per token - hard to say how subsidised they are, of course, but I would be surprised if they are all burning cash.

Open-source models are also constantly getting better, with new architectures and training processes that make 30b models perform like previous SOTA models, lowering the prices for many use-cases.

So I don't think the current level AI will get more expensive, I would expect it to stay at the same price or fall. But, I think the AI companies will continue pushing more higher-priced premium models that deliver better performance for higher prices and with more tokens consumed.

Re: Why AC is cheap, but AC repair is a luxury

#146

Post by helsinki8 »

nunez wrote: post #131
dig1 wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

a16z is heavily long on AI, so this article sounds very biased. From the article: If you live in the United States today, and you accidentally knock a hole in your wall, it’s probably cheaper to buy a flatscreen TV and stick it in front of the hole, compared to hiring a handyman to fix your drywall. Probably because the US has been focused on services for years rather than physical goods production. Everything else i…

> From the article: If you live in the United States today, and you accidentally knock a hole in your wall, it’s probably cheaper to buy a flatscreen TV and stick it in front of the hole, compared to hiring a handyman to fix your drywall. This also isn't true? It costs almost nothing to patch drywall. You can also do this yourself. Unless the point they're making is "TVs are so cheap, you can mount a TV inside of the…

I was curious so I did a quick check.

I can buy a flat screen TV from Walmart for $74. A handyman to come to my house is a minimum of $150.

So the parent comment is true, buying a TV is cheaper than hiring a handyman to fix the drywall.

Re: Why AC is cheap, but AC repair is a luxury

#147

Post by throwaway173738 »

water9 wrote: post #122
ta20240528 wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"And a 4 year path of any sort seems excessive for a technician" Its not excessive if the purpose is job protection. See also any career that involves interning (law, accounting, …)

It’s a air-conditioning system. It’s dead simple you could learn it in an afternoon watching YouTube videos.

HVAC technicians do more than just install mini-splits.

Re: Why AC is cheap, but AC repair is a luxury

#148

Post by throwaway173738 »

water9 wrote: post #123
locknitpicker wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I didn't see anything in their comment where they added "and therefore we ought return to rampant extreme poverty", did I miss it? The US is already experiencing rampant extreme poverty. There are people in the US holding multiple jobs and still can't afford to eat, let alone healthcare. Again, this argument that things are expensive because the poor can't work and regulation somehow is suffocating businesses is pu…

Yes, because if you get a leak in your air conditioner, instead of just patching the hole and refilling it with coolant, you have to replace your entire system in places like California because they require a more green, less gas, in the name of science, and still completely ignoring the simple fact that it doesn’t make a damn difference because we all live in the same globe. The amount of waste that is generated is…

Which existential threat are you referring to here?

Re: Why AC is cheap, but AC repair is a luxury

#149

Post by danaris »

dig1 wrote: post #94
testdelacc1 wrote: post #52

The author makes an error while explaining Jevons’ Paradox. They say “the cheaper and faster we got at producing coal, the more coal we ended up using”. But that’s not paradoxical at all. That’s basic supply and demand curve from economics 101. It’s exactly what you’d expect. Whereas if you take the extraordinarily difficult step of opening Wikipedia ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox ), you understand th…

a16z is heavily long on AI, so this article sounds very biased. From the article: If you live in the United States today, and you accidentally knock a hole in your wall, it’s probably cheaper to buy a flatscreen TV and stick it in front of the hole, compared to hiring a handyman to fix your drywall. Probably because the US has been focused on services for years rather than physical goods production. Everything else i…

"Some rich guy has been convinced to invest heavily in $NEWTECH, therefore any article voicing skepticism about $NEWTECH must be biased."

This does not follow. Being a wealthy and high-profile investor does not meant that Horowitz understands the technology.

It certainly does not mean that there are no valid criticisms of the technology.

Re: Why AC is cheap, but AC repair is a luxury

#150

Post by Ekaros »

esperent wrote: post #132
kilotaras wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IIUC grandparent is in Norway as he quoted the price in NOK.

Oh good catch. Somehow my eyes skipped over NOK and just saw the $2.3k. ... Why does someone in Norway need a split AC unit? I don't think they're very efficient for heating. EDIT: I researched this and it seems the type designed for heating in negative zero temperatures are much more expensive. So maybe that explains it?

Similar to Finland. Quite lot of time in the year like right now outside temperature is above zero, but below say 15C. So heatpumps are in very good efficiency range.
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