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Why AC is cheap, but AC repair is a luxury

a16z.substack.com

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Re: Why AC is cheap, but AC repair is a luxury

#111

Post by dijit »

pinkmuffinere wrote: post #105
dig1 wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

a16z is heavily long on AI, so this article sounds very biased. From the article: If you live in the United States today, and you accidentally knock a hole in your wall, it’s probably cheaper to buy a flatscreen TV and stick it in front of the hole, compared to hiring a handyman to fix your drywall. Probably because the US has been focused on services for years rather than physical goods production. Everything else i…

Also the initial claim is just false — “if you live in the United States today, and you accidentally knock a hole in your wall, it’s probably cheaper to buy a flatscreen TV and stick it in front of the hole, compared to hiring a handyman to fix your drywall“. I can tell you that this isn’t true in San Diego. Unless they’re using flatscreen tvs that cost less than $300? Or perhaps making extremely difficult-to-patch h…

This is true in pretty much every western country sadly.

TV's are really absurdly cheap (and awful) on the low end, we're not talking about your 60" LG OLED with AI TV here, we're talking: a screen with maybe 720p and a viewing angle of: dead centre.

Hiring a handyman is, what, $100/h in most countries, then there's a minimum call-out fee and materials cost- worse "I don't have the part". You're looking at about $300~ easy.

But for $129 you can get this; https://a.co/d/7cdztf8

Re: Why AC is cheap, but AC repair is a luxury

#112

Post by otikik »

testdelacc1 wrote: post #52

The author makes an error while explaining Jevons’ Paradox. They say “the cheaper and faster we got at producing coal, the more coal we ended up using”. But that’s not paradoxical at all. That’s basic supply and demand curve from economics 101. It’s exactly what you’d expect. Whereas if you take the extraordinarily difficult step of opening Wikipedia ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox ), you understand th…

> price per token, which has fallen.

I think that statement is incomplete. It's cheaper because the AI providers are subsidizing the queries by burning cash in order to gain market share. So it's not a price, it's a subsidized and temporary price. Which will likely go up once burnable money runs out / the providers switch from "market acquisition" to "let's try to make this thing profitable at all".

Re: Why AC is cheap, but AC repair is a luxury

#113

Post by pinkmuffinere »

kanwisher wrote: post #109
pinkmuffinere wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also the initial claim is just false — “if you live in the United States today, and you accidentally knock a hole in your wall, it’s probably cheaper to buy a flatscreen TV and stick it in front of the hole, compared to hiring a handyman to fix your drywall“. I can tell you that this isn’t true in San Diego. Unless they’re using flatscreen tvs that cost less than $300? Or perhaps making extremely difficult-to-patch h…

50" tv for $239 https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0D4P176B8

Huh, i stand corrected, thanks! I think this brings both options to similar prices, so at the very least the spirit of the quote is true. Here’s my math:

- My handyman changes $50/hour, but if you find a new person maybe they charge $75-$100/hour

- materials are cheap, probably like $50 total for mud and drywall, or a repair kit

- with two hours labor, the total should be somewhere from $150-$250.

- if the handyman won’t accept a job less than 4 hours, the range is $250-$450.

Re: Why AC is cheap, but AC repair is a luxury

#114

Post by 9rx »

testdelacc1 wrote: post #52

The author makes an error while explaining Jevons’ Paradox. They say “the cheaper and faster we got at producing coal, the more coal we ended up using”. But that’s not paradoxical at all. That’s basic supply and demand curve from economics 101. It’s exactly what you’d expect. Whereas if you take the extraordinarily difficult step of opening Wikipedia ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox ), you understand th…

> Jevons observed that when steam engines get more efficient and individually use less coal

And your basic supply and demand curve indicates that, at least until the supply is diminished in kind which isn't going to happen immediately given the all the constraints at play, using less coal leads to coal becoming cheaper and more readily available.

> This seems like a basic oversight

Not really. Improvements to the steam engine being why we got "cheaper and faster at producing coal" is immaterial. The added detail you've given is an interesting aside, I suppose, but doesn't change anything about the original premise. The only oversight is you not realizing this, perhaps?

Re: Why AC is cheap, but AC repair is a luxury

#115

Post by rcxdude »

locknitpicker wrote: post #76
ApolloFortyNine wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A quick Google says it takes 4 years to get a license to be an HVAC technician in my state. I understand large installs at businesses are a different problem, and granted I've only ever installed a mini split, but that was hardly rocket science. And home installs are likely what most people are thinking of here. In Japan you can get minisplit's installed for $1k a unit, here you regularly find quotes over $10k. Somet…

> In Japan you can get minisplit's installed for $1k a unit, here you regularly find quotes over $10k. How much does the unit cost? What work does it take to install it? How large does it need to be to support your home? What are the energy needs of your typical home in Japan vs your home town? Those are the key factors, not how many years someone spends in tradeschool.

The units themselves are not significantly more expensive nor any more difficult or time consuming to install.

Re: Why AC is cheap, but AC repair is a luxury

#117

Post by darkwater »

jcattle wrote: post #99
testdelacc1 wrote: post #52

The author makes an error while explaining Jevons’ Paradox. They say “the cheaper and faster we got at producing coal, the more coal we ended up using”. But that’s not paradoxical at all. That’s basic supply and demand curve from economics 101. It’s exactly what you’d expect. Whereas if you take the extraordinarily difficult step of opening Wikipedia ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox ), you understand th…

Oh that's a fine example of the Baader-Meinhof Phenomenon. Read this comment first, went to read one of the other top links on HN ( https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45804377 ) and which Paradox shows up? Jevons'! Was thoroughly confused which article this comment belonged to for a second.

I think that, in a typical HN fashion, this article was submitted after reading the other one, like: here you get another take on this topic.

Re: Why AC is cheap, but AC repair is a luxury

#118

Post by kilotaras »

esperent wrote: post #35
magicalhippo wrote: post #10

Just had our minisplit develop a leak after 7 years. The shop recommended replacing it, as just the refrigerant is half the price of a new one if most has to be replaced, due to environmental taxes. Basically a repair is guaranteed to be at least 50% of new price of NOK 23k ($2.3k) installed and can quickly approach 80+% if the guy has to spend time on it. That made me wonder how on earth they make money on selling t…

Here in Vietnam nearly all ACs are these minisplit type. It costs about 500,000VND ($19) to get one serviced, including replacement coolant. It's cheap enough that I get it done at least once or twice a year for all units (the coolant doesn't always need replacing but I get it cleaned and serviced). I know the US and Vietnamese economies are very different, but something doesn't add up there.

IIUC grandparent is in Norway as he quoted the price in NOK.

Re: Why AC is cheap, but AC repair is a luxury

#119

Post by XorNot »

jmb99 wrote: post #108
XorNot wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They insist on that because if someone does work on your property they might destroy your property Yeah it's CYA: the ass in question is yours. The guy who burns your house down without insurance will just file bankruptcy. You're the one left with the ashes.

Would your homeowners insurance not cover that? Mine would.

You might want to really do a careful read of your policy, because almost all of them have provisions about requiring work to be completed by licensed tradespeople.

Re: Why AC is cheap, but AC repair is a luxury

#120

Post by absurd1st »

> if you automate 99% of a job, that last 1% the human has to do is incredibly valuable because it’s bottlenecking everything else.

The author is being (intentionally) naive here.

History and current research suggest that when technology automates the vast majority of a complex job, it can lead to the "deskilling" of the human worker.

This Lancet article (published Oct 2025) discovered that doctors were found to be less adept at finding precancerous growths during colonoscopies after just three months of using an AI tool designed to spot them: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langas/article/PIIS2468-1...

And the thing is, I think the above finding is pretty intuitive.

If AI performs 99% of a radiologist's diagnostic work, the human's role will very likely be reduced to a skill that is more routine, that requires less expertise, like a final check or something - and thus commands lower wages.

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