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Why AC is cheap, but AC repair is a luxury
31–40 of 192 posts
Re: Why AC is cheap, but AC repair is a luxury
#32The inflation in health care cost is not down to Jevons in my opinion. The likelihood of AI job displacement is low because the demand backlog is high.
Robotics will reduce back injury rates and so reduce Nurse shortages, for example. Misdiagnosis rates cause increases in compensation claims so improvement in diagnostics reduce risk so insurance premiums(for hospitals) should go down or at least not rise as quickly compared to inflation.
Note that the cost of health is high even in the economies without the broken US health system, and we have the baby boom moving through which is a huge bubble of cost associated with age.
Not that there's no component of Jevons in this, but it doesn't explain everything.
A thing said to me in Argentina resonated: They pay doctors, nurses, pharmacists slightly more if they will do out-calls to elderly people in the community at large. The increase in staff cost to have home calls offsets the massive increase in care costs if these people cannot be cared for in their home and move into a managed care facility. It's partly an externality if you privatise healthcare: who cares if the state has to pick up the tab, right? But in a more integrated view of the costs here, its better to pay more for people to help keep the elderly in their own home as long as possible.
(elderly, intending to stay in my own home, not in the US health system)
Re: Why AC is cheap, but AC repair is a luxury
#33There is a simpler explanation - HVAC jobs are directly influenced by the push to covert everything to heat-pumps. And good heat-pumps are expensive . So when you install a $15K to $25K, installation fee also goes up. I am surprised Solar isn't up there. Panels are cheap, install is what we pay for 10 years+
It's not even that. It's that rich people are the only thing the trades are catering to now. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qT_uSJVCYds Example of a solar install that was under $20k via DIY - maybe took this guy 1-2 weeks of full-time work. But he was quoted $90k and he did most of it himself - only hiring a backhoe operator to move some dirt around. We're at the point where the trades are only going to cater to ri…
What I'm seeing is trades workers basically don't want small one off jobs because you waste so much time on the overheads unrelated to the actual work. If someone has a hole in the wall they need patched, you're spending time answering the phone, estimating the price, driving there, billing the customer, etc. And a lot of jobs are very one off and difficult to evaluate the price.
Why even bother when you could just work for a mass build and plaster up hundreds of walls in a single job on a new apartment building or housing development.
So as an individual it's almost impossible to get someone over to do a small job, and your only realistic option is to do it yourself.
Re: Why AC is cheap, but AC repair is a luxury
#34I'm not sure why everyone picks on radiology as the 'obvious' field that will get automated. So far it has been the opposite:
> In 2025, American diagnostic radiology residency programs offered a record 1,208 positions across all radiology specialties, a four percent increase from 2024, and the field’s vacancy rates are at all-time highs. In 2025, radiology was the second-highest-paid medical specialty in the country, with an average income of $520,000, over 48 percent higher than the average salary in 2015.
Simply put, radiologists do a lot more than merely read scans:
> Radiologists are useful for more than reading scans; a study that followed staff radiologists in three different hospitals in 2012 found that only 36 percent of their time was dedicated to direct image interpretation.
Source: https://worksinprogress.co/issue/the-algorithm-will-see-you-...
Re: Why AC is cheap, but AC repair is a luxury
#35Just had our minisplit develop a leak after 7 years. The shop recommended replacing it, as just the refrigerant is half the price of a new one if most has to be replaced, due to environmental taxes. Basically a repair is guaranteed to be at least 50% of new price of NOK 23k ($2.3k) installed and can quickly approach 80+% if the guy has to spend time on it. That made me wonder how on earth they make money on selling t…
Here in Vietnam nearly all ACs are these minisplit type. It costs about 500,000VND ($19) to get one serviced, including replacement coolant. It's cheap enough that I get it done at least once or twice a year for all units (the coolant doesn't always need replacing but I get it cleaned and serviced).
I know the US and Vietnamese economies are very different, but something doesn't add up there.
Re: Why AC is cheap, but AC repair is a luxury
#36Earlier quoted context omitted.
An AC is a heat pump too.
I don't know what the deal is about people saying heat pumps are expensive. They used to be a little pricier than AC units, but it's just a 4-way valve in addition to one. I just looked it up, and I can buy a heat pump for 200-400 euros (depending on desired output), installation is ~400 euros. Why are you paying 20-30x for something identical? This sounds like a price difference created by government behavior, like…
Is this some country specific terminology? At least in Australia I've never seen an air conditioner that didn't use heat pump technology. Aside from evaporative cooling that is.
Re: Why AC is cheap, but AC repair is a luxury
#37Just had our minisplit develop a leak after 7 years. The shop recommended replacing it, as just the refrigerant is half the price of a new one if most has to be replaced, due to environmental taxes. Basically a repair is guaranteed to be at least 50% of new price of NOK 23k ($2.3k) installed and can quickly approach 80+% if the guy has to spend time on it. That made me wonder how on earth they make money on selling t…
23k seems like a lot, especially so if the leak is somewhere other than a hidden part of the line. Equipment cost is likely only a couple of k, and labour to replace without running new lines is maybe a few hours. Please get a second opinion, especially if you can find a non-shop to give you one.
> 23k seems like a lot,
That is because it's wrong. Sorry, just woke up. I'm in Norway, and it's 23k NOK, or $2300.
The shop said filling my system back up with refrigerant if it was empty would be around $1.3k, and based on what I've heard I don't think that's off by much.
Re: Why AC is cheap, but AC repair is a luxury
#38That's a lot of economic theorizing, but to me, it doesn't seem to be substantiated all that well. You can just as well argue that labor is getting more expensive in the West because of two non-market pressures. First, we have a multitude of government programs that seek to eliminate extreme poverty, so there are fewer people who are desperate to take any job for any money. Second, you have consumer protection polici…
> Second, you have consumer protection policies that make it genuinely expensive to, say, be a HVAC repairman. clarification: Of the things that make it expensive to run an HVAC repair company, consumer protection related expenses are super far down the list. source: 2 decades (on/off) supporting a close friend's regional hvac biz, national geothermal interests.
A quick Google says it takes 4 years to get a license to be an HVAC technician in my state.
I understand large installs at businesses are a different problem, and granted I've only ever installed a mini split, but that was hardly rocket science. And home installs are likely what most people are thinking of here.
In Japan you can get minisplit's installed for $1k a unit, here you regularly find quotes over $10k. Something's gone wrong somewhere.
Re: Why AC is cheap, but AC repair is a luxury
#39That's a lot of economic theorizing, but to me, it doesn't seem to be substantiated all that well. You can just as well argue that labor is getting more expensive in the West because of two non-market pressures. First, we have a multitude of government programs that seek to eliminate extreme poverty, so there are fewer people who are desperate to take any job for any money. Second, you have consumer protection polici…
> You can just as well argue that labor is getting more expensive in the West because of two non-market pressures. First, we have a multitude of government programs that seek to eliminate extreme poverty, so there are fewer people who are desperate to take any job for any money. Second, you have consumer protection policies that make it genuinely expensive to, say, be a HVAC repairman. Educational requirements, permi…
I don’t think that’s what they were saying, but instead, labor is expensive now because labor is scarce, which is true. And that regulation is expensive, which it is, but also necessary.
Perhaps the question is why wages are not high enough to support these prices (globalization, productivity wage gap over the last fifty years, etc). This will change over time due to structural demographics [1] making labor much more scarce (pushing up wages), we’re still in the early days. Software is not going to eat the trades and HVAC repair.
Re: Why AC is cheap, but AC repair is a luxury
#40I'm not sure why everyone picks on radiology as the 'obvious' field that will get automated. So far it has been the opposite: > In 2025, American diagnostic radiology residency programs offered a record 1,208 positions across all radiology specialties, a four percent increase from 2024, and the field’s vacancy rates are at all-time highs. In 2025, radiology was the second-highest-paid medical specialty in the country…
In a similar vein, studies have found that software engineers spend only ~30% of their time coding on average. Yet we're similarly meant to believe that AI is going to replace human engineers? Ironically this belief is often held by software engineers themselves, as if they don't realize that they do so much more than generate characters. Bizarre.