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Why AC is cheap, but AC repair is a luxury

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Re: Why AC is cheap, but AC repair is a luxury

#21

Post by rablackburn »

> We are at the point in the technology curve with AI where every day someone figures out something new to do with them, meaning users will take any chip they can get, and use it productively.

Sure, that's an assertion.

But (with just as many citations), mine would be:

This boom is absolutely, 100%, fueled by the combined factors of: 1) employees outsourcing the cognitive load of their jobs to models that are, impressively "close", but not quite _as_ good as a well-trained human.

ie, we're replacing google with a fun, but terribly energy-wasteful (and _very often_ factually wrong) "make up an answer" tech.

and 2), AI "app developers" who are having fun with the previously "impossible" (*cf. https://xkcd.com/1425/) APIs of multi-modal natural language, and "didn't sci-fi warn us about this?" simulations.

Neither of which are good for productivity, if we measure productivity as "improving circumstances for the mutual commonwealth of all life". Which is the goal.

* oh, I _did_ use a citation after all.

It is an interesting article, but _far_ too sure of itself in all the wrong areas.

Re: Why AC is cheap, but AC repair is a luxury

#22

Post by hexbin010 »

[deleted] wrote: post #18
bradlys wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not even that. It's that rich people are the only thing the trades are catering to now. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qT_uSJVCYds Example of a solar install that was under $20k via DIY - maybe took this guy 1-2 weeks of full-time work. But he was quoted $90k and he did most of it himself - only hiring a backhoe operator to move some dirt around. We're at the point where the trades are only going to cater to ri…

[deleted]

There was definitely a period from I guess the 80s but definitely the mid 90s to before COVID where the average joe could afford a tradesperson for the bigger things when needed, which are now prohibitively expensive

I feel everyone is competing with a 5-10 dumb rich people who don't batter an eye lid at a job quoted at 20x the materials. I feel people used to have some more morals too on the supply side of that labour, but you can't blame them for chasing the money.

Re: Why AC is cheap, but AC repair is a luxury

#23

Post by WarOnPrivacy »

chemotaxis wrote: post #7

That's a lot of economic theorizing, but to me, it doesn't seem to be substantiated all that well. You can just as well argue that labor is getting more expensive in the West because of two non-market pressures. First, we have a multitude of government programs that seek to eliminate extreme poverty, so there are fewer people who are desperate to take any job for any money. Second, you have consumer protection polici…

> Second, you have consumer protection policies that make it genuinely expensive to, say, be a HVAC repairman.

clarification: Of the things that make it expensive to run an HVAC repair company, consumer protection related expenses are super far down the list.

source: 2 decades (on/off) supporting a close friend's regional hvac biz, national geothermal interests.

Re: Why AC is cheap, but AC repair is a luxury

#24

Post by tass »

magicalhippo wrote: post #10

Just had our minisplit develop a leak after 7 years. The shop recommended replacing it, as just the refrigerant is half the price of a new one if most has to be replaced, due to environmental taxes. Basically a repair is guaranteed to be at least 50% of new price of NOK 23k ($2.3k) installed and can quickly approach 80+% if the guy has to spend time on it. That made me wonder how on earth they make money on selling t…

23k seems like a lot, especially so if the leak is somewhere other than a hidden part of the line. Equipment cost is likely only a couple of k, and labour to replace without running new lines is maybe a few hours.

Please get a second opinion, especially if you can find a non-shop to give you one.

Re: Why AC is cheap, but AC repair is a luxury

#25

Post by turtlebits »

harikb wrote: post #3

There is a simpler explanation - HVAC jobs are directly influenced by the push to covert everything to heat-pumps. And good heat-pumps are expensive . So when you install a $15K to $25K, installation fee also goes up. I am surprised Solar isn't up there. Panels are cheap, install is what we pay for 10 years+

Good mini splits aren't expensive. They're expensive because HVAC installers are fleecing US consumers.

A majority of mini splits are made in China and are inexpensive and reliable because they're so pervasive in Asia. Most are rebadged Midea or Gree.

You can get a decent mini split for <1.5K and install it yourself for $200 in tools.

Re: Why AC is cheap, but AC repair is a luxury

#26

Post by bcrosby95 »

> HVAC wage

This is mostly down to people being afraid of anything even remotely trades-like. Learn to do some basic home repair, it will save you thousands.

> This graph can mean different things to different people: it can mean “what’s regulated versus what isn’t” to some, “where technology makes a difference”

Cars are pretty heavily regulated...

What I see is what is necessary to live and what isn't. Elastic vs inelastic demand.

> the average American middle-class household can comfortably manage a new car lease every two years

Huh, no, the average American middle-class household cannot do this.

> If one sector becomes hugely productive, and creates tons of well-paying jobs, then every other sector’s wages eventually have to rise, in order for their jobs to remain attractive for anyone.

I'm sorry, but anyone who has lived in the lower income brackets knows this just isn't true.

This is hard to read. Whoever wrote this is extremely out of touch and thinks they're eminently intelligent. It reminds me of the "smug San Francisco" South Park episode. The world is going down a road of hurt and you've got elites who are so busy "winning" over the past 50 years running around sniffing their own farts.

Re: Why AC is cheap, but AC repair is a luxury

#27

Post by landl0rd »

chemotaxis wrote: post #7

That's a lot of economic theorizing, but to me, it doesn't seem to be substantiated all that well. You can just as well argue that labor is getting more expensive in the West because of two non-market pressures. First, we have a multitude of government programs that seek to eliminate extreme poverty, so there are fewer people who are desperate to take any job for any money. Second, you have consumer protection polici…

Why do you think people insist someone needs to be licensed, bonded, and insured? It's not really a quality question, it's CYA, a direct response to the rise of ambulance-chasers and increasingly-ridiculous jury awards. Morgan and Morgan are probably doing as much economic damage here as Baumol.

Re: Why AC is cheap, but AC repair is a luxury

#28

Post by Gigachad »

This was pretty interesting. But the part I didn't get is where its stated that things got more expensive, but we consume more of them because we got richer.

Is this not just inflation? If everyone got paid more and everything got more expensive, are we not essentially level?

Re: Why AC is cheap, but AC repair is a luxury

#29

Post by quadrifoliate »

hexbin010 wrote: post #16
bradlys wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not even that. It's that rich people are the only thing the trades are catering to now. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qT_uSJVCYds Example of a solar install that was under $20k via DIY - maybe took this guy 1-2 weeks of full-time work. But he was quoted $90k and he did most of it himself - only hiring a backhoe operator to move some dirt around. We're at the point where the trades are only going to cater to ri…

> It's that rich people are the only thing the trades are catering to now. This is my gut feeling too. I've known so many rich people who just accept whatever number a tradesperson quotes. There is no way that hasn't had a mass effect

I'm not rich (or at least, don't feel rich with the enormous cost increases on everything combined with no promotions for 3 years) -- but how do you negotiate with a tradesperson exactly?

All of the major trade companies around where I live (HVAC, plumbing, electrical etc.) in the US have rates that they quote before the person will even show up. As a new homeowner who didn't grow up in the US, that's all I've ever dealt with.

If the answer is “Give them a number you're comfortable with, and just DIY it as an alternative” -- that's fine, and I do it for anything simple; but for the remaining ones, I have already made a determination that learning this skill would be way more in terms of time invested than the $500 or whatever absurd number they are quoting for a simple repair (this logic likely breaks down over time, and I'm trying to invest more time into learning more house repairs).

I have tried pre-purchasing some parts in the past; and asking them to use them for the install -- that one had some success and a guy told me how much his company marks up parts (n00%).

I do try to get multiple quotes for something, but the difference between them isn't usually appreciable; they're all absurdly high. I've tried to ask them for a parts v/s labor breakdown in the past; some won't even provide that.

Re: Why AC is cheap, but AC repair is a luxury

#30

Post by stein1946 »

chemotaxis wrote: post #7

That's a lot of economic theorizing, but to me, it doesn't seem to be substantiated all that well. You can just as well argue that labor is getting more expensive in the West because of two non-market pressures. First, we have a multitude of government programs that seek to eliminate extreme poverty, so there are fewer people who are desperate to take any job for any money. Second, you have consumer protection polici…

> You can just as well argue that labor is getting more expensive in the West because of two non-market pressures. First, we have a multitude of government programs that seek to eliminate extreme poverty, so there are fewer people who are desperate to take any job for any money. Second, you have consumer protection policies that make it genuinely expensive to, say, be a HVAC repairman. Educational requirements, permits, licensing, business insurance, waste disposal, etc.

How's what you wrote substantiated at all?

To me it seems you are suggesting we let people starve so that labour you characterize as "minimally-skilled backyard" is cheap.

You also seem to be suggesting that consumer protection policies need to go as well. I assume we are going to trust the end consumer to do due diligence cause "they know whats better for them?"

If they get a quote of 10k and they cannot get a better one, they might as well start writing that check.

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