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When the job search becomes impossible

jeffwofford.com

281–290 of 469 posts

Re: When the job search becomes impossible

#281

I've lived through the recessions of 1990-91 (in my 20s, not tech), the Dotcom bust and the Great Financial Crisis. I can tell you that it's always been this way when its' a "buyer's market" and the employers can afford to be picky. I can also tell you that this is not some game-changing phenomenon[0]. The jobs will return when it is once again a "seller's market" -- which it surely will be. This applies to non-tech…

I wonder if with AI it is possible for someone to be a productive entrepreneur easily than finding a job in today’s market. Specially for someone over 50.

Re: When the job search becomes impossible

#282

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The median household net worth in the US is $193,000. The rate of home ownership is 65%. I don’t think the median American is at risk of becoming homeless during normal unemployment. Maybe you mean that the article isn’t as relevant for a global audience which is fine, but I would think that the median American lives in “the real world”. https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/scf/dataviz/scf/table... https://www.nahb…

I am not sure that means what you think it does. That’s not liquid dollars and does not mean those home owners have savings for emergencies.

The median American also owns $39,000 in liquid financial assets.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/scf23.pdf (page 22, “Financial Assets” section)

Re: When the job search becomes impossible

#283
post #263

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed, this is total blasphemy

I missed this part in the Bible. I'll admit it's tactless, but as a presumably European in your other comment what have I sacrileged against God? You asked an economical question it's hard to make economical decisions with repeated 90 day deadlines.

He that is glad at calamity shall not be held innocent?

Re: When the job search becomes impossible

#284
post #256

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

All former US presidents who died in the 21st century died well over the age of 90. Don't underestimate what access to the best medical care in the world will do, regardless of your lifestyle.

Not sure it helps all that much: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/billionaires-death-a...

Re: When the job search becomes impossible

#285
post #180
post #148

As someone who's recently been hiring (sorry folks, position was filled just a few days ago), it's wild to me how distorted things have become. We had 1200 applications for an extremely niche role. A huge amount were clearly faked resumes that far too closely matched the job description to be realistic. Another huge portion were just unqualified. The irony is that there actually _are_ a ton of exceptionally qualified…

> The process is so broken right now that we're 100% back to nepotism Just want to comment on this, because I think think favoring unknown candidates is a mistake we make too often, and in fact the "normal" process is a disaster on both sides for this reason. Nepotism or Cronyism is granting resources, patronage, jobs to someone you know instead of a qualified candidate. In many industries this is how they function b…

> I just want to say that things like reputation and network matter... and thats not really "nepotism"

I strongly agree with this, and I'm glad you put it so clearly. If you've been in your industry say 10 years or more, you should have built a reputation by that point that makes people say "I want to work with that person again, or I'd recommend that person to a friend who has a job opening". (Important thing to clarify, though, I'm not denigrating anyone who has been out of work a long time. I've seen many categories of jobs in the tech industry where there are simply a lot fewer jobs to go around - it's musical chairs and a lot of chairs got taken away all at once).

I would put in an important caveat, though, and that's for people who are early in their careers. The hiring process really is truly shitty for people just entering the workforce and for people with only one or two jobs under their belt.

Re: When the job search becomes impossible

#286
post #278

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not a PM, but I PMed it very aggressively. I made a Notes.app personal wiki tracking every company I spoke to, with a timeline in reverse chronological order of every contact I'd had with them, like: Foo Corp Recruiter: [Jane Smith] * 2025-09-15 On-site prep call with [Joe Brown] * 2025-09-13 Coding screen with [Pat Doe] I kept a "pipeline" note with companies in each stage, like: # Leads * [Adam Albert] at [Bar…

Obsidian app with it's latest "bases" feature (or Dataview plugin) would work nicely for this.

For sure. Or Bear, or Notion, or ...

There are a lot of things to track all this. I personally didn't want to spend more than the minimum time setting up and using the system, because last think I wanted was to get nerdsniped into inventing a job application tracking systems instead of, like, applying for jobs. That would've been a real risk to me.

Re: When the job search becomes impossible

#287
post #218
post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I must be missing something. 1200 real applications are hard to sort through. 1200 mostly fake applications are much easier. Hiring is a high-leverage activity, and it's absolutely worth spending a couple hours going through those by hand.

For 1200 applications, a couple hours translates to less than 10 seconds per application. In the age of LLMs, why do you think you'd be able to discern whether an application was fake in 10 seconds? Remember, it's not "obviously fake", it's "designed to con you" fake.

I don't know which 1200 applications they saw, but IME they're a lot better at trying to con you than succeeding. LLMs aren't great for a lot of use cases (yet?), and this is one of those areas where reality doesn't match the dream:

1. ~10% of applications are over-tailored. Really? You did with exactly matching our job description at $BigCo 3 years before the language existed and 5 years before we pioneered it? The person might be qualified, but if they can't be arsed to write a resume that reflects _their_ experiences then I don't have enough evidence to move them forward in the interviewing process.

2. ~40% of applications have obvious, major inconsistencies -- the name on LinkedIn doesn't match the name on the resume, the LinkedIn link isn't real, the GitHub link isn't real, the last 3 major jobs on LinkedIn are different from the last 3 major jobs on the resume, etc. I don't require candidates to put those things on a resume, but if they do then I have a hard time imagining the candidate copy-pasting incorrectly being more likely than the LLM hallucinating a LinkedIn profile.

Those are quick scans, well under 4s each on average. We've used 80 minutes of our budget and are down to 600 applications. Of the remainder:

3. ~90% of remaining applications fail to meet basic qualifications. I don't know if they're LLM-generated or not, but a year of Python and SQL isn't going to cut it for a senior role doing low-level optimizations in a systems language. If there's a cover letter, a professional summary, mention of some side project, or if their GitHub exists and has anything in it other than ipynb files with titles indicating rudimentary data science then they still pass this filter. If they're fresh out of school then I also give them the benefit of the doubt and consider them for a junior role. Even with that leeway, 90% of those remaining applicants don't have a single thing in any of the submitted materials suggesting that they're qualified.

So...we're down to 60 applications. We spent another 40 minutes. In retrospect, that's already our full 2hr budget, so I did exaggerate the speediness a bit, but it's ballpark close. You can spend 2min fully reading and taking notes on each of the remaining applications, skimming the GitHub projects of anyone who bothered to post them, and still come out in 4hr for the lot.

It's probably worth noting, that isn't all to say that <5% of programmers with that skillset are qualified. I imagine the culprit is spray-and-pray LLM spam not even bothering to generate a plausible resume or managing to search for matching jobs. If bad resumes hit 99 jobs for every 1 job a good resume hits then you only expect a 1% success rate from the perspective of somebody reviewing applications.

Re: When the job search becomes impossible

#288

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks! I treated it as my full-time job and spent hours scrambling nearly every day. If things had worked out a little differently and I didn’t get a job in a reasonable time frame, I wanted to know it wasn’t from lack of trying.

Is this because you were talking to recruiters and they would respond? Because I've only been able to talk to ~three hiring managers this entire year. So the idea of lining up thirty interviews sounds preposterous, and not because it's hard work. I followed up with the three of course, but was ghosted after one reply or so.

It's a little of that, and almost my particular job skills are still in demand right now. Just putting "looking for work" on my LinkedIn profile got the contacts flowing.

BTW, I did not, never, not once, apply to any jobs listed through LinkedIn this time around. I did that before and it was utterly demoralizing. Their ads were like "subscribe to LinkedIn Ultra and move to the top of the list of 9,000 people applying for this role!" I've never gotten a single hit from applying for a tech job through LinkedIn. I don't think that's actually a thing.

Re: When the job search becomes impossible

#290
post #224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What could potentially put an end to the current hiring "winter"? We have an increasing amount of immigrants coming over in hopes of getting a white-collar job, in combination with the tech sector shrinking, as well as companies as a whole being much more careful when hiring. There would need to be some explosion in the amount of tech jobs, in order for everyone to be able to get one. However, I just cannot see what…

This is just recency bias. People often tend to think that present trends will continue indefinitely even though past trends did not.

What does the moment look like when one trend ends?

ZIRP is one example of a decade-long trend that is ending.

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