251–260 of 661 posts
Substitute fiber and routers for GPUs and this starts to look familiar.
Now he's in AI investments.
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>You can have all the talent in the world but if you can't get 100k H100s and a dedicated power plant, you're out. I really have to wonder, how long will it be before the competition moves into who has the most wafer-scale engines. I mean, surely the GPU is a more inefficient packaging form factor than large dies with on-board HBM, with a massive single block cooler?
Sentiment I have heard is manufactories do not want to increase die size because defects per die increases at the same time.
But I do believe that their cost per compute is still far more than disparate chips.
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What's wrong with that post?
its some GPT wrapper app that has 100 downloads. also if your founder has to use dozens of buzzwords when asked to describe what their app does and that still doesn't even explain it, its obviously just bs. "Arcarae’s mission is to help humanity remember and unlock the power each individual holds within themself so they can bring into reality their unique, authentic expression of self without fear or compromise. Our…
What do you mean lol? Isn't that awesome? Feel free to share if you think that isn't awesome. I personally don't think there is enough information here to tell if that is awesome or satire, but it is interesting how usually things like this are considered awesome, but this particular one is deemed satire.
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I don’t like to think of predicting the future as “a conclusion” of some assumptions. I don’t think it puts you in a frame of mind such that you’re genuinely curious.
> Remember the YouTube acquisition? To many, it seemed bonkers. Because of the legal uncertainty about what they were doing. There was no fundamental technological impediment. Here the technology simply doesn't exist and this is a giant bet that it can be magically created by throwing (a lot) more money at the existing idea. This is why it's "dumb money" because they don't seem to understand the dynamics of what they…
I made a new top-level comment mentioning the 2006 YouTube acquisition only to show that many people were shocked, but -surprise- markets are usually better predictors than individual hunches.
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Locally run video models that are just as good as today’s closed models are going to be the watershed moment The companies doing foundational video models have stakeholders that don’t want to be associated with what people really want to generate But they are pushing the space forward and the uncensored and unrestricted video model is coming
Nobody wants to make a commercial NSFW model that then suffers a jailbreak... for what is the most illegal NSFW content.
When it comes to sexually explicit content in general with adults, all of our laws rely on the human actor existing
FOSTA and SESTA is related to user generated content of humans, for example. They rely on making sure an actual human isnt being exploited and burdening everyone with that enforcement. When everyone can just say “thats AI” nobody’s going to care and platforms will be willing to take that risk of it being true again - or a new hit platform will. That kind of content currently Doesnt exist in large quantities yet, until a video model ungimped can generate it.
Concerns about trafficking only rely on actual humans not entirely new avatars
regarding children there are more restrictions that may already cover this, there is a large market for just adult looking characters though and worries about underage can be tackled independently. or be found entirely futile. not my problem, focus on what you can control. this is whats coming though.
people already dont mind parasocial relationships with generative AI and already pay for that, just add nudity
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>cash furnace They don't even burn it on on AI all the time either: https://openai.com/sam-and-jony/
"May 21, 2025 This is an extraordinary moment. Computers are now seeing, thinking and understanding. Despite this unprecedented capability, our experience remains shaped by traditional products and interfaces." I don't even want to learn about them every line is so exhausting
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The wildest part is that the frontier models have a lifespan of 6 months or so. I don't see how it's sustainable to keep throwing this kind of money at training new models that will be obsolete in the blink of an eye. Unless you believe that AGI is truly just a few model generations away and once achieved it's game over for everyone but the winner. I don't.
It is being played like a winner-takes-it-all right now (it may or may not be such a market). So it is a game of being the one that is left standing, once the others fall off. In this kind of game, speeding more is done as a strategy to increase the chances of other competitors running out of cash or otherwise hitting a wall. Sustainability is the opposite of the goal being pursued... Whether one reaches "AGI" is not…
Or the last investor. When this type of money is raised, you can be sure the earlier investors are looking for ways to have a soft landing.
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It's not clear to me that each new generation of models is going to be "that" much better vs cost. Anecdotally moving from model to model I'm not seeing huge changes in many use cases. I can just pick an older model and often I can't tell the difference... Video seems to be moving forward fast from what I can tell, but it sounds like the back end cost of compute there is skyrocketing with it raising other questions.
The raw model scale is not increasing by much lately. AI companies are constrained by what fits in this generation of hardware, and waiting for the next generation to become available. Models that are much larger than the current frontier are still too expensive to train, and far too expensive to serve them en masse. In the meanwhile, "better data", "better training methods" and "more training compute" are the main w…
All of the big AI players have profited from Wikipedia, but have they given anything back, or are they just parasites on FOSS and free data?
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We do seem to be hitting the top of the curve of diminishing returns. Forget AGI - they need a performance breakthrough in order to stop shoveling money into this cash furnace.
According to Dario, each model line has generally been profitable: i.e. $200MM to train a model that makes $1B in profit over its lifetime. But, since each model has been more and more expensive to train, they keep needing to raise more money to train the next generation of model, and the company balance sheet looks negative: i.e. they spent more this year than last (since the training cost for model N+1 is higher),…
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It is all fake and made up, and the numbers are detached from the real world, but it's not like the market doesn't know that. Btw there's a decentish board game called Modern Art based around the pricing of art with no intrinsic value.
Perhaps there are salient differences between art on a wall and a company.