181–190 of 661 posts
Hopefully this'll give them another 3 months of runway, so they can go back to letting me use Claude Sonnet for 5 hours out of the 5-hour limit, rather than the 2.5 hours I'm getting now. ($100-plan, no agents, no mcp, one session at a time)
The compute moat is getting absolutely insane. We're basically at the point where you need a small country's GDP just to stay in the game for one more generation of models. What gets me is that this isn't even a software moat anymore - it's literally just whoever can get their hands on enough GPUs and power infrastructure. TSMC and the power companies are the real kingmakers here. You can have all the talent in the w…
I really have to wonder, how long will it be before the competition moves into who has the most wafer-scale engines. I mean, surely the GPU is a more inefficient packaging form factor than large dies with on-board HBM, with a massive single block cooler?
These numbers seem made up at times / difficult to comprehend what they expect is happening ...
People said the same about Open AI in 2023, only valued at $30 billion at the time, and then seemingly overnight Chat GPT become a major commercial product rivaling Google. Or Tesla valuations in 2019. It went from a niche brand to Teslas everywhere after Covid. These VCs are not as irrational as commonly assumed. They know if a product gains critical mass , it can become everything.
When their sales have nosedived, new products have flopped, their CEO is the most disliked man in America, and their self driving still requires someone in the car at all times?
Tesla is a GameStop level meme stock.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Always makes you wonder how many companies that are successes today could’ve had their SBF moment, but market conditions kept them afloat
I think it's really objectionable to refer to this as an "SBF moment". It's not just about surviving a downtown and unforseen circumstances with some luck (like the sibling talking about FedEx barely making it). Tesla, for example, was famously extremely close to bankruptcy. But SBF got into the situation he was in due to his egregious fraud . The accounting at FTX was a criminal joke, with multiple sets of books, by…
Whether by negligence or intent, FTX was arranged so that they couldn't go bust without stealing.
Their projections for ARR at the end of this year at a high of $9B[1] at the end of this year. And reported gross margins of 60% (-30% with cloud providers partnerships). All things considered, if this pans out, it's a 20x multiple. High yes, but not that crazy. Specially considering their growth rate and that too at a decent margin at gm level. [1]: It was $3B at the end of May (so likely $250M in May alone), and $5…
and we continue to pretend that market generates any semblance of value.
why would nvidia not create their own foundational model?
The compute moat is getting absolutely insane. We're basically at the point where you need a small country's GDP just to stay in the game for one more generation of models. What gets me is that this isn't even a software moat anymore - it's literally just whoever can get their hands on enough GPUs and power infrastructure. TSMC and the power companies are the real kingmakers here. You can have all the talent in the w…
how so? deepseek and others do models on par with previous generation for a tiny fraction of a cost. Where is the moat?
why would nvidia not create their own foundational model?
Impressive round but it seems unlikely this game can go on much longer before something implodes. Given the amount of cash you need to set of fire to stay relevant it’s becoming nearly impossible for all but a few players to stay competitive, but those players have yet to demonstrate a viable business model. With all these models converging, the big players aren’t demonstrating a real technical innovation moat. Every…
And unfortunately, the amount of money being thrown around means that when the bottom falls out and its revealed that the emperor has no clothes, the implosion is going to impact all of us. It's going to rock the market like we've never seen before.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Alphabet 2024 revenue: 350 billions dollars Anthropic 2024 revenue: 1 billion dollars Unreasonable doesn’t even start to capture it. Anthropic being worth 10% of Alphabet is beyond insane.
The valuation is not based solely on last year's revenue. Revenue doesn't really matter at this point.