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AI adoption linked to 13% decline in jobs for young U.S. workers: study

cnbc.com

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Re: AI adoption linked to 13% decline in jobs for young U.S. workers: study

#261

Post by nateglims »

myhf wrote: post #225
kerblang wrote: post #180

High interest rates + tariff terror -> less investment -> less jobs But let's blame AI

More investment -> more return on investment -> "AI is increasing worker efficiency" -> This is good for AI. Less investment -> more layoffs -> "AI is replacing workers" -> This is good for AI. A computer does something good -> "That's AI" -> This is good for AI. A computer does something bad -> "It needs more AI" -> This is good for AI.

It seems more true than the "this is good for bitcoin" meme now that bitcoin seems to track the dollar very closely

Re: AI adoption linked to 13% decline in jobs for young U.S. workers: study

#262

Post by pasquinelli »

hollerith wrote: post #233
mensetmanusman wrote: post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tariffs are just a massive government revenue generating consumption tax on particular industries. We would expect unemployment among the young trying to enter those industries to be hit hardest.

[flagged]

i'm curious who you think pays american tarrifs

Re: AI adoption linked to 13% decline in jobs for young U.S. workers: study

#263

Post by johnnienaked »

OtherShrezzing wrote: post #131
ACCount37 wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does it have to? Stack enough "it's 5% better" on top of each other and the exponent will crush you.

AI training costs are increasing around 3x annually across each of the last 8 years to achieve its performance improvements. Last year, spending across all labs was $150bn. Keeping the 3x trend means that, to keep pace with current advances, costs should rise to $450bn in 2025, $900bn in 2026, $2.7tn in 2027, $8.1tn in 2028, $25tn in 2028, and $75tn in 2029 and $225tn in 2030. For reference, the GDP of the world is a…

Your math is a bit less than it should be because you doubled instead of trebled 2026

Re: AI adoption linked to 13% decline in jobs for young U.S. workers: study

#264

Post by esafak »

kerblang wrote: post #180

High interest rates + tariff terror -> less investment -> less jobs But let's blame AI

Let's read the paper instead: https://digitaleconomy.stanford.edu/wp-content/uploads/2025/...

It presents a difference-in-differences (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Difference_in_differences) design that exploits staggered adoption of generative AI to estimate the causal effect on productivity. It compares headcount over time by age group across several occupations, showing significant differentials across age groups.

Page 3: "We test for a class of such confounders by controlling for firm-time effects in an event study regression, absorbing aggregate firm shocks that impact all workers at a firm regardless of AI exposure. For workers aged 22-25, we find a 12 log-point decline in relative employment for the most AI-exposed quintiles compared to the least exposed quintile, a large and statistically significant effect."

Re: AI adoption linked to 13% decline in jobs for young U.S. workers: study

#265

Post by johnnienaked »

narcotraffico1 wrote: post #260
johnnienaked wrote: post #243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The jobs are going to India

American workers are truly under attack from all sides. H1B. Outsourcing. What's left? The blue collar manufacturing is mostly gone. White collar work well on its way out. Why is our own government (by the people for the people) actively assisting in destroying American's ability to get jobs (H1B)? Especially in these conditions. I'm no racist or idiot but it's unacceptable. I didn't expect the gov to actively be con…

Efficiency rules all.

It just doesn't make sense to pay someone $10 when you can pay someone else $2

Re: AI adoption linked to 13% decline in jobs for young U.S. workers: study

#267

Post by jameslk »

mostlysimilar wrote: post #167
jameslk wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How many of these jobs are getting offshored because of AI? Language barriers, culture, and knowledge are some of the biggest challenges to overcome for offshoring. AI potentially solves many of those challenges

> AI potentially solves many of those challenges Isn't it exactly the opposite? Language barriers: LLMs are language models and all of the major ones are built in English, speaking that language fluently is surely a prerequisite to interacting with them efficiently? Knowledge: famously LLMs "know" nothing and are making things up all of the time and sometimes approximate "knowledge"

Language barriers: The outsourced workers I know use AI to help them ask and answer questions about things in English they don’t perfectly understand because English is their second language. They use it to write better English from English with grammatical mistakes

Knowledge: True to an extent, but my assumption here is that it would be used to fill in gaps or correct misunderstandings. Not wholesale doing my job. At least that’s often how I use it

Re: AI adoption linked to 13% decline in jobs for young U.S. workers: study

#268

Post by antod »

bilsbie wrote: post #155
sandspar wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Buy a trailer, live somewhere cheap, do odd jobs Unrelated to the discussion, but I love these kinds of backup plans. I've found that most guys I talk to have one. Just a few days ago a guy was telling me that, if his beloved wife ever divorces him, then he'd move to a tropical island and become a coconut seller. (My personal plan: find a small town in the Sonoran Desert that has a good library, dig a hole under a n…

Is it hard to date living under a cactus?

Yes, that's where living under a date palm is better.

Re: AI adoption linked to 13% decline in jobs for young U.S. workers: study

#269

Post by renewiltord »

iamdelirium wrote: post #168
renewiltord wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pharmacists are my favourite. They're a human vending machine that is bad at counting and reading. But law protects them. Pretty good regulatory capture.

Please actually understand what pharmacists actually do and _why_ AI is not a good replacement for them yet, unless you want to die of certain drugs interactions.

Hahaha, this drug interaction nonsense is what online people tell each other. It isn't even real. It's like "nice trigger discipline" or "the postal police don't fuck around" and shit like that. Just something that is not true but for some reason is internet urban legend.

Retail pharmacists are human vending machines. You don't need AI. It's a computer prescription written by a far more qualified human which is then provided to a nigh-illiterate half-wit who will then try as hard as possible to misread it. Having then misread it, the patient must then coax them out of their idiocy until they apologize and fulfill what's written.

Meanwhile some Internet guy who gets all his information from the Internet will repeat what he's heard on the Internet. I know this because anyone passingly acquainted with this would have at least made the clarification between compounding pharmacists and retail pharmacists or something.

Re: AI adoption linked to 13% decline in jobs for young U.S. workers: study

#270

Post by linkjuice4all »

kerblang wrote: post #180

High interest rates + tariff terror -> less investment -> less jobs But let's blame AI

End of ZIRP and the Sec. 179 change for engineering salaries probably explains more of this (plus the increase in outsourcing). I’m sure some decision makers also threw AI into the mix but the financials of hiring software engineers in the US was already challenging before AI “took everyone’s job”.
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