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AI adoption linked to 13% decline in jobs for young U.S. workers: study

cnbc.com

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Re: AI adoption linked to 13% decline in jobs for young U.S. workers: study

#231

Post by mensetmanusman »

PhantomHour wrote: post #228
ToValueFunfetti wrote: post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You really do have to account for why this is mainly happening in industries that are adopting AI, why it's almost exclusively impacting entry-level positions (with senior positions steady or growing), and why controlling for broad economic conditions failed to correct this. I doubt very much that these three Stanford professors would be blindsided by the concept of rates and tarriffs.

> You really do have to account for why this is mainly happening in industries that are adopting AI Correlation is not causation. The original research paper does not prove a connection. > I doubt very much that these three Stanford professors would be blindsided by the concept of rates and tarriffs. They are nonetheless subject to publish or perish pressure and have strong incentives to draw publishable attention-gr…

Tariffs are just a massive government revenue generating consumption tax on particular industries. We would expect unemployment among the young trying to enter those industries to be hit hardest.

Re: AI adoption linked to 13% decline in jobs for young U.S. workers: study

#232

Post by pessimizer »

b112 wrote: post #229
tialaramex wrote: post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The AI will at least be cheaper than a CEO, it might also be more competent and more ethical. The argument against making a Large Language Model the CEO seems to mostly be about protecting the feelings of the existing CEO, maybe the Board should look past these "feelings" and be bold ?

I'll re-explain. A human CEO might do morally questionable things. All do not, of course, but some may. Yet even so, they need a planet with air, water, and some way to survive. They also may what their kids to survive. An AI may not care. It could be taking "bad CEO" behaviour to a whole new level. And even if the AI had human ethics, humans play "us vs them" games all the time. You don't get much more "them" than a…

The AI most certainly does not care, because it is a computer program. It also doesn't want to buy a boat.

Re: AI adoption linked to 13% decline in jobs for young U.S. workers: study

#233

Post by hollerith »

mensetmanusman wrote: post #231
PhantomHour wrote: post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You really do have to account for why this is mainly happening in industries that are adopting AI Correlation is not causation. The original research paper does not prove a connection. > I doubt very much that these three Stanford professors would be blindsided by the concept of rates and tarriffs. They are nonetheless subject to publish or perish pressure and have strong incentives to draw publishable attention-gr…

Tariffs are just a massive government revenue generating consumption tax on particular industries. We would expect unemployment among the young trying to enter those industries to be hit hardest.

[flagged]

Re: AI adoption linked to 13% decline in jobs for young U.S. workers: study

#234

Post by ammojamo »

slipperydippery wrote: post #199
Spivak wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There used to be two humans standing at the cash register, now because of software, automatic change machines, and cameras there is only one. One of those humans' jobs got automated. Call it what you like but replacing the work of humans one for one is difficult and usually not necessary. Reformulating the problem to one that machines can solve is basically the whole game. You don't need a robot front desk worker to…

I do their work. No work got automated.

This. And I do their work a lot more slowly because it's not my regular job, and I actually already had to do some of the work (getting the items out of my trolley and onto the conveyor). Now I stand there forever fumbling with barcodes, trying to get bags to stay open, switching between getting items out of the trolley and scanning. The old checkout system is so much more efficient when you are buying anything more than a couple of items at a time.

Re: AI adoption linked to 13% decline in jobs for young U.S. workers: study

#235

Post by mensetmanusman »

bilsbie wrote: post #154
robotnikman wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If it gets to the point where I can no longer find a tech job I am just going to buy a trailer, live somewhere cheap, and just make money doing odd jobs while spending most of my time programming what I want. I don't want to participate in a society where all I have for job options is a McJob or some Amazon warehouse.

Is it hard to date with a trailer?

Not if it has a hitch.

Re: AI adoption linked to 13% decline in jobs for young U.S. workers: study

#236

Post by dragonwriter »

hollerith wrote: post #233
mensetmanusman wrote: post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tariffs are just a massive government revenue generating consumption tax on particular industries. We would expect unemployment among the young trying to enter those industries to be hit hardest.

[flagged]

> Do you understand that American employers don't have to pay American tariffs?

Except they do, if their raw materials, tools, etc., are imported.

Re: AI adoption linked to 13% decline in jobs for young U.S. workers: study

#239

Post by HumblyTossed »

ajkjk wrote: post #198
an0malous wrote: post #194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there some central authority that’s telling people to blame this all on AI, or how is everyone reaching this conclusion and ignoring the other obvious factors you stated?

It is in their interest to find explanations for reductions in labor that don't assign the blame to corporate greed. For example, a call center might use the excuse of AI to fire a bunch of people. They would have liked to just arbitrarily fire people a few years ago, but if they did that people would notice the reduction in quality and perhaps realize it was done out of self-serving greed (executives get bigger bonu…

> It is in their interest to find explanations for reductions in labor that don't assign the blame to corporate greed.

Exactly.

Re: AI adoption linked to 13% decline in jobs for young U.S. workers: study

#240

Post by QuadmasterXLII »

hex4def6 wrote: post #150
throwaway31131 wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'm not sure it's that our job is the most automatable I don't know. It seems pretty friendly to automation to me. When was the last time you wrote assembly? When was the last time you had map memory? Think about blitting memory to a screen buffer to draw a square on a screen? Schedule processes and threads? These are things that I routinely did as a junior engineer writing software a long time ago. Most people at…

This has been my argument as well. We've been climbing the abstraction ladder for years. Assembly -> C -> OOP ->... this just seems like another layer of abstraction. "Programmers" are going to become "architects". The labor cost of implementing a given feature is going to dramatically drop. Jevons Paradox paradox will hopefully still mean that the labor pool will just be used to create '10x' the output (or whatever…

the cost of creating a line of code dropped to zero. the ongoing cost of having created a line of code has if anything gone up.
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