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The "AI 2027" Scenario: How realistic is it?

garymarcus.substack.com

31–40 of 242 posts

Re: The "AI 2027" Scenario: How realistic is it?

#31

Its a shame that your standard futurologist always the most fancyful. Talks of exponentials unabated by physics or social problems. As soon as AI starts to "properly" affect the economy, it will cause huge unemployment. Most of the financial world is based on an economy with people spending cash. If they are unemployed, there is no cash. Financing works because banks "print" money, that is, they make up money and loa…

Communism here we come!

Re: The "AI 2027" Scenario: How realistic is it?

#32
post #25

If we have concerns about unregulated power of AI systems, not to worry - the US is set to ban regulations on “artificial intelligence systems or models” for ten years if the budget bill that just passed the house is enacted. Attempts at submitting it as a separate submission just get flagged - so I’ll link to it here. See pages 292-294: https://www.congress.gov/119/bills/hr1/BILLS-119hr1rh.pdf

Oh I heard about that one, but didn't realize it is part of that "big beautiful tax bill"? Kind of crazy.

So is this like free-for-all now for anything AI related? Can I can participate by making my own LLM with pirated stuff now? Or are only the big guys allowed to break the law? Asking for a friend.

Re: The "AI 2027" Scenario: How realistic is it?

#33
post #32
post #25

If we have concerns about unregulated power of AI systems, not to worry - the US is set to ban regulations on “artificial intelligence systems or models” for ten years if the budget bill that just passed the house is enacted. Attempts at submitting it as a separate submission just get flagged - so I’ll link to it here. See pages 292-294: https://www.congress.gov/119/bills/hr1/BILLS-119hr1rh.pdf

Oh I heard about that one, but didn't realize it is part of that "big beautiful tax bill"? Kind of crazy. So is this like free-for-all now for anything AI related? Can I can participate by making my own LLM with pirated stuff now? Or are only the big guys allowed to break the law? Asking for a friend.

The law doesn't matter, since the bill also prohibits all judges in the USA, every single one, from enforcing almost all kinds of injunctions or contempt penalties. (§70302, p.562)

Re: The "AI 2027" Scenario: How realistic is it?

#34
post #23
post #5

I'm skeptical. Where will the training data to go beyond human come from? Humans got to where they are from being embedded in the world. All of biological evolution from archaebacteria to humans was required to get to human. To go beyond human... how? How, without being embodied and trying things and learning? It's one thing to go where there are roads and another thing to go beyond that. I think a lot of the "foom"…

You can perfectly try things and learn without being embodied. The analogy to how humans learn only goes so far, it's myopic to think anything else is impossible. It's already happening. The situation today is any benchmark you come up with has a good chance of being saturated within the year. Benchmarks can be used directly to build series of exercises to learn from. And they do learn. Gradient descend doesn't care…

But how does AI try and learn anything that’s not entirely theoretical? Your example of Go contradicts your point. Deep learning made a model that can play Go really well, but as you say, it’s a finite problem disconnected from real-world implications, ambiguities, and unknowns. How does AI deal with unknowns about the real world?

Re: The "AI 2027" Scenario: How realistic is it?

#35
post #25

If we have concerns about unregulated power of AI systems, not to worry - the US is set to ban regulations on “artificial intelligence systems or models” for ten years if the budget bill that just passed the house is enacted. Attempts at submitting it as a separate submission just get flagged - so I’ll link to it here. See pages 292-294: https://www.congress.gov/119/bills/hr1/BILLS-119hr1rh.pdf

It is almost as if the tech bros have gotten what they paid for.

This will soon be settled once the Butlerian forces get organize.

Re: The "AI 2027" Scenario: How realistic is it?

#36

Its a shame that your standard futurologist always the most fancyful. Talks of exponentials unabated by physics or social problems. As soon as AI starts to "properly" affect the economy, it will cause huge unemployment. Most of the financial world is based on an economy with people spending cash. If they are unemployed, there is no cash. Financing works because banks "print" money, that is, they make up money and loa…

> Financing works because banks "print" money, that is, they make up money and loan that money out, and then it gets paid back

Don’t forget persistent inflation, which is how they make a profit off printing money. And remember persistent inflation is healthy and necessary, you’d be going against the experts to say otherwise.

Re: The "AI 2027" Scenario: How realistic is it?

#38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some people do actually have end of the world bets out but you have to structure it differently. What you do is the person who thinks the world will end is paid cash right now, and then in N years when the world hasn't ended they have to pay back some multiple of the amount the original amount.

Assuming you can find them. If I took a bet like that you'd have a hell of a time finding me! (I'm sure serious, or "serious," people who actually construct these bets of course require the "world still here" payout be escrowed. Still.)

If you escrow the World Still Exists payment you lose the benefit of having the World Ends payment immediately.

Re: The "AI 2027" Scenario: How realistic is it?

#39
post #25

If we have concerns about unregulated power of AI systems, not to worry - the US is set to ban regulations on “artificial intelligence systems or models” for ten years if the budget bill that just passed the house is enacted. Attempts at submitting it as a separate submission just get flagged - so I’ll link to it here. See pages 292-294: https://www.congress.gov/119/bills/hr1/BILLS-119hr1rh.pdf

""" ... IN GENERAL .—Except as provided in paragraph (2), no State or political subdivision thereof may enforce any law or regulation regulating artificial intelligence models, artificial intelligence systems, or automated decision systems during the 10 year period beginning on the date of the enactment of this Act...

"""

(It goes on)

Re: The "AI 2027" Scenario: How realistic is it?

#40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Assuming you can find them. If I took a bet like that you'd have a hell of a time finding me! (I'm sure serious, or "serious," people who actually construct these bets of course require the "world still here" payout be escrowed. Still.)

If you escrow the World Still Exists payment you lose the benefit of having the World Ends payment immediately.

Yeah, it isn't a kind of bet that makes any sense except as a conversation starter. Imagine needing to pay so much money for one of those!
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