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The "AI 2027" Scenario: How realistic is it?

garymarcus.substack.com

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Re: The "AI 2027" Scenario: How realistic is it?

#11

Post by throwanem »

api wrote: post #5

I'm skeptical. Where will the training data to go beyond human come from? Humans got to where they are from being embedded in the world. All of biological evolution from archaebacteria to humans was required to get to human. To go beyond human... how? How, without being embodied and trying things and learning? It's one thing to go where there are roads and another thing to go beyond that. I think a lot of the "foom"…

I don't think it is any accident that descriptions of the hard-takeoff "foom" moment so resemble those I've encountered of how it feels from the inside to experience the operation of a highly developed mathematical intuition.

Re: The "AI 2027" Scenario: How realistic is it?

#12

Post by johnisgood »

lupire wrote: post #10
api wrote: post #5

I'm skeptical. Where will the training data to go beyond human come from? Humans got to where they are from being embedded in the world. All of biological evolution from archaebacteria to humans was required to get to human. To go beyond human... how? How, without being embodied and trying things and learning? It's one thing to go where there are roads and another thing to go beyond that. I think a lot of the "foom"…

What makes you think AI can't connect to the world? It can control robots, and I can retax listen to audio, watch video. All it's missing is smelling and feeling, which are important but could be built out as soon as the other senses stop providing huge incremental value. The real problem holding back Superintillegence is that it is if infinitely expensive and has no motivation.

Food for thought: there are humans without the ability to smell, and there is alexithymia, where people have trouble identifying and expressing emotions (it counts right?). And then there is ASPD (psychopathy), autism spectrum disorder, neurological damage, etc.

Re: The "AI 2027" Scenario: How realistic is it?

#13

Post by thatguysaguy »

airocker wrote: post #9

I want to bet 10 million that this won’t happen if anyone wants to go against my position. Best bet ever. If i lose, i don’t have to pay anyways.

Some people do actually have end of the world bets out but you have to structure it differently. What you do is the person who thinks the world will end is paid cash right now, and then in N years when the world hasn't ended they have to pay back some multiple of the amount the original amount.

Re: The "AI 2027" Scenario: How realistic is it?

#14

Post by Onavo »

api wrote: post #5

I'm skeptical. Where will the training data to go beyond human come from? Humans got to where they are from being embedded in the world. All of biological evolution from archaebacteria to humans was required to get to human. To go beyond human... how? How, without being embodied and trying things and learning? It's one thing to go where there are roads and another thing to go beyond that. I think a lot of the "foom"…

Reinforcement learning. At the current pace of VLM research and multimodal robotic control models, there will be a robot in every home soon.

Re: The "AI 2027" Scenario: How realistic is it?

#15

Post by throwanem »

thatguysaguy wrote: post #13
airocker wrote: post #9

I want to bet 10 million that this won’t happen if anyone wants to go against my position. Best bet ever. If i lose, i don’t have to pay anyways.

Some people do actually have end of the world bets out but you have to structure it differently. What you do is the person who thinks the world will end is paid cash right now, and then in N years when the world hasn't ended they have to pay back some multiple of the amount the original amount.

Assuming you can find them. If I took a bet like that you'd have a hell of a time finding me!

(I'm sure serious, or "serious," people who actually construct these bets of course require the "world still here" payout be escrowed. Still.)

Re: The "AI 2027" Scenario: How realistic is it?

#19

Post by rienbdj »

thatguysaguy wrote: post #13
airocker wrote: post #9

I want to bet 10 million that this won’t happen if anyone wants to go against my position. Best bet ever. If i lose, i don’t have to pay anyways.

Some people do actually have end of the world bets out but you have to structure it differently. What you do is the person who thinks the world will end is paid cash right now, and then in N years when the world hasn't ended they have to pay back some multiple of the amount the original amount.

How can you work around if you don’t have millions upfront?

Re: The "AI 2027" Scenario: How realistic is it?

#20

Post by kristopolous »

This looks like the exercises organizations write to guide policy and preparation.

There's all kinds of wild scenarios: the president getting kidnapped, Canada falling to a belligerent dictator, and famously, a coronavirus pandemic... This looks like one of those

Apparently this is exactly what it is https://ai-futures.org/

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