Its a shame that your standard futurologist always the most fancyful. Talks of exponentials unabated by physics or social problems. As soon as AI starts to "properly" affect the economy, it will cause huge unemployment. Most of the financial world is based on an economy with people spending cash. If they are unemployed, there is no cash. Financing works because banks "print" money, that is, they make up money and loa…
The "AI 2027" Scenario: How realistic is it?
31–40 of 242 posts
Re: The "AI 2027" Scenario: How realistic is it?
#32If we have concerns about unregulated power of AI systems, not to worry - the US is set to ban regulations on “artificial intelligence systems or models” for ten years if the budget bill that just passed the house is enacted. Attempts at submitting it as a separate submission just get flagged - so I’ll link to it here. See pages 292-294: https://www.congress.gov/119/bills/hr1/BILLS-119hr1rh.pdf
So is this like free-for-all now for anything AI related? Can I can participate by making my own LLM with pirated stuff now? Or are only the big guys allowed to break the law? Asking for a friend.
Re: The "AI 2027" Scenario: How realistic is it?
#33If we have concerns about unregulated power of AI systems, not to worry - the US is set to ban regulations on “artificial intelligence systems or models” for ten years if the budget bill that just passed the house is enacted. Attempts at submitting it as a separate submission just get flagged - so I’ll link to it here. See pages 292-294: https://www.congress.gov/119/bills/hr1/BILLS-119hr1rh.pdf
Oh I heard about that one, but didn't realize it is part of that "big beautiful tax bill"? Kind of crazy. So is this like free-for-all now for anything AI related? Can I can participate by making my own LLM with pirated stuff now? Or are only the big guys allowed to break the law? Asking for a friend.
Re: The "AI 2027" Scenario: How realistic is it?
#34I'm skeptical. Where will the training data to go beyond human come from? Humans got to where they are from being embedded in the world. All of biological evolution from archaebacteria to humans was required to get to human. To go beyond human... how? How, without being embodied and trying things and learning? It's one thing to go where there are roads and another thing to go beyond that. I think a lot of the "foom"…
You can perfectly try things and learn without being embodied. The analogy to how humans learn only goes so far, it's myopic to think anything else is impossible. It's already happening. The situation today is any benchmark you come up with has a good chance of being saturated within the year. Benchmarks can be used directly to build series of exercises to learn from. And they do learn. Gradient descend doesn't care…
Re: The "AI 2027" Scenario: How realistic is it?
#35If we have concerns about unregulated power of AI systems, not to worry - the US is set to ban regulations on “artificial intelligence systems or models” for ten years if the budget bill that just passed the house is enacted. Attempts at submitting it as a separate submission just get flagged - so I’ll link to it here. See pages 292-294: https://www.congress.gov/119/bills/hr1/BILLS-119hr1rh.pdf
This will soon be settled once the Butlerian forces get organize.
Re: The "AI 2027" Scenario: How realistic is it?
#36Its a shame that your standard futurologist always the most fancyful. Talks of exponentials unabated by physics or social problems. As soon as AI starts to "properly" affect the economy, it will cause huge unemployment. Most of the financial world is based on an economy with people spending cash. If they are unemployed, there is no cash. Financing works because banks "print" money, that is, they make up money and loa…
Don’t forget persistent inflation, which is how they make a profit off printing money. And remember persistent inflation is healthy and necessary, you’d be going against the experts to say otherwise.
Re: The "AI 2027" Scenario: How realistic is it?
#37I can't believe anyone still gives this guy the time of day. He didn't know what test/train split was, but is an AI expert? Give me a break
Re: The "AI 2027" Scenario: How realistic is it?
#38Earlier quoted context omitted.
Some people do actually have end of the world bets out but you have to structure it differently. What you do is the person who thinks the world will end is paid cash right now, and then in N years when the world hasn't ended they have to pay back some multiple of the amount the original amount.
Assuming you can find them. If I took a bet like that you'd have a hell of a time finding me! (I'm sure serious, or "serious," people who actually construct these bets of course require the "world still here" payout be escrowed. Still.)
Re: The "AI 2027" Scenario: How realistic is it?
#39If we have concerns about unregulated power of AI systems, not to worry - the US is set to ban regulations on “artificial intelligence systems or models” for ten years if the budget bill that just passed the house is enacted. Attempts at submitting it as a separate submission just get flagged - so I’ll link to it here. See pages 292-294: https://www.congress.gov/119/bills/hr1/BILLS-119hr1rh.pdf
"""
(It goes on)
Re: The "AI 2027" Scenario: How realistic is it?
#40Earlier quoted context omitted.
Assuming you can find them. If I took a bet like that you'd have a hell of a time finding me! (I'm sure serious, or "serious," people who actually construct these bets of course require the "world still here" payout be escrowed. Still.)
If you escrow the World Still Exists payment you lose the benefit of having the World Ends payment immediately.