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India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

reuters.com

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Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#291

Post by pfannkuchen »

orwin wrote: post #290
pfannkuchen wrote: post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are all overreactions sudden? Man A is pushing man B repeatedly and yelling at him as a bar dispute escalates. Man B pulls out a gun and shoots man A. Overreaction? Yes. Sudden? Not necessarily.

Man B push around man A, insult him, poke him. Man A ask him to stop. Man B pulls out a gun and shoots man A. Here, ftfy. Poland saw what what Germany did to Czechoslovaquia, decided that negotiations would only happen after a demilitarization and de-escalation. But it's true it wasn't sudden, poland was preparing for the war, the attack from both side (cooperation between Germany and Russia) is what took them by sur…

Hold on, nowhere did I say that A and B corresponded to the Germany/Poland situation. You are putting words in my mouth.

I was strictly illustrating a counter example to the implied notion that overreaction implies suddenness.

To further demonstrate that this is a misunderstanding on your part, it wouldn’t even make sense for me to have A and B correspond to the Germany/Poland situation - that would make my argument circular!

It isn’t very kind to take an interpretation that would set the speaker’s argument as circular, when an alternate and trivially-demonstrated-as-more-valid interpretation is also available. I believe the advice is often stated as - assume good intent.

On your second point - this is an elementary school tier interpretation of history. Poland itself did not have anywhere close to sufficient leverage to make such decisions about delaying negotiations. They were able to do so solely due to Britain’s backing their decision with force. Why did Britain back them? Why do you believe the history book written by the winners so easily on a topic so fuzzy as motive?

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#292

Post by aa-jv »

sofixa wrote: post #219
krainboltgreene wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Putin is a particularly deranged type of fascist though, much like Bush, who is okay making the poor calculation of a Ukrainian invasion for the benefit of a wartime economy. Even German ambassadors in Ukraine were caught off guard having to leave that night. Modi is a different type of beast, he's a long term political power that doesn't need a wartime economy, and is still establishing his internal power. He's goin…

> Putin is a particularly deranged type of fascist though, much like Bush, who is okay making the poor calculation of a Ukrainian invasion for the benefit of a wartime economy While Putin is undoubtedly deranged, I think his goals with invading had much more to do with delusions of grandeur and trying to rebuild the Russian/Soviet empire than wanting the "benefit" of a "wartime economy". Russia was drastically unprep…

>delusions of grandeur

How do you come to this conclusion - have you been studying Putins' speeches in the last 3 years, or analysed some of the policies that led to this conclusion?

Did you see his recent interview on Croatian TV where he discusses this specifically?

EDIT: hey downvoters - is it not valid to study world leaders' directly rather than going through a third party .. ?

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#294

Post by sbmthakur »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #106
screye wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

India wants peace. A peaceful India threatens Pakistan's entire existence as a military state. Therefore, Pakistan keeps instigating with outrageously cruel terrorist attacks. There are no strategic goals here. Either side may recover some vantage points high up in the Himalayas. But that's about it.

> India wants peace Not really. There are options for a negotiated peace that involves swapping land, specifically, ceding Muslim-dominant territory to Pakistan and setting borders along rivers. That's anathema in India because there is broad-based antipathy towards Islamabad, historically, and Muslims, recently.

Under no circumstances India is ceding any territory to a military run state that has sponsored terrorism in India. If Pakistan is serious they can start by putting PoK on the table and halt all anti Indian activities in their country. That would be a good start.

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#295

Post by matkoniecz »

HideousKojima wrote: post #239
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> People said the same sorts of things when Germany suddenly invaded Poland Hell, look at HN on the eve of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. One of the top comments was essentially a dismissal from Kherson edited to an "oh shit."

That's because we'd seen "Russian invasion imminent" every year since the annexation of Crimea. It got to be very boy who cried wolf.

For start Russia invaded Ukraine and continued war in eastern regions.

Russian invasion was not imminent, it was ongoing.

And for full scale invasion: there were a clear signs of it before it happened.

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#296

Post by pm90 »

dyauspitr wrote: post #223
bluefirebrand wrote: post #84

[flagged]

Yeah but if you’re a part of the region you know India is not stupid or expansionary. No Indian is really worried about this turning into a full scale war.

I wouldn’t be so sure. It is easy for the tit-tat to spiral out of control. Any kind of military skirmish is very concerning… we should stop the fighting while we still can.

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#297

Post by pm90 »

jjude wrote: post #287
nblgbg wrote: post #61

I believe it's mostly overstated. Pakistan is not economically strong enough to participate in a war, and India is not interested either. However, the Modi government wants to project strength. They were unable to locate the terrorists even after two or three weeks and needed a distraction. So, they targeted some areas in Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK). In response, Pakistan claimed to have shot down four Indian air…

> Pakistan is not economically strong enough to participate in a war, Pakistan has nothing to lose. So there are lots of incentives for Pakistan army to go rogue.

This isn’t how anything works. Both India and Pakistan depend on imported military hardware. Every time they’ve fought each other they’ve been embargoed. So every kind of engagement has an implicit timer before the military literally runs out of munitions to continue any kind of serious war.

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#298

Post by unstuck3958 »

digitalPhonix wrote: post #20

From the article: > Pakistan said India hit three sites with missiles, and a military spokesman told Reuters his country shot down five Indian aircraft, a claim not confirmed by India. That’s a huge loss of aircraft! Are there any corroborating reports or more details about the aircraft/shootdown?

I live in Kashmir. Can verify the two have been shot down at least.

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#299

Post by sbmthakur »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #234
kumarvvr wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There are options for a negotiated peace that involves swapping land, specifically, ceding Muslim-dominant territory to Pakistan and setting borders along rivers. Sorry, why would that be done? When Pakistan was split from India, because of the Muslims voting against their own land that they have been living in for centuries, the lines are set and done. Why should India cede more land? Pakistan is on one of the mos…

> When Pakistan was split from India, because of the Muslims voting against their own land that they have been living in for centuries, the lines are set and done Lines are never "set and done for." We had a short period of global consensus around the unacceptability of taking territory by force. But between the superpowers' proxy wars, America's invasion of Iraq, China's annexation of Tibet and threats on Taiwan, an…

I know that's just an example but any kind of third party arbitrator has to be trusted by India. As far its territorial integrity is concerned India doesn't trust China or even the US, and this is true across party lines.

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#300

Post by dmos62 »

sofixa wrote: post #219
krainboltgreene wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Putin is a particularly deranged type of fascist though, much like Bush, who is okay making the poor calculation of a Ukrainian invasion for the benefit of a wartime economy. Even German ambassadors in Ukraine were caught off guard having to leave that night. Modi is a different type of beast, he's a long term political power that doesn't need a wartime economy, and is still establishing his internal power. He's goin…

> Putin is a particularly deranged type of fascist though, much like Bush, who is okay making the poor calculation of a Ukrainian invasion for the benefit of a wartime economy While Putin is undoubtedly deranged, I think his goals with invading had much more to do with delusions of grandeur and trying to rebuild the Russian/Soviet empire than wanting the "benefit" of a "wartime economy". Russia was drastically unprep…

There's as many theories about why Putin and Kremlin did what they did as there are war analyst books on it. Some of them are more right than others, but at the end of the day, if I'm honest, I'm as confused as I was in 2014. Which is a problem not only for my curiosity: if Western policymakers are as confused as me, it's difficult to craft a good policy: we're effectively playing half-court tennis (to quote Sarah C. Paine).
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