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India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

reuters.com

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Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#11

Post by AnimalMuppet »

nothercastle wrote: post #6
Jtsummers wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not just Kashmir. > The Indian government said its forces had struck nine sites in Pakistan and on Pakistan’s side of the disputed Kashmir region. Pakistani military officials said that five places had been hit, in Punjab Province and its part of Kashmir. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/06/world/asia/india-pakistan...

I don’t think Pakistan will escalate. They are at a severe disadvantage unless china gives them the green light.

Can you explain? What does China's green light give to Pakistan? Are they not able to attack full strength without China's permission? And if so, why?

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#12

Post by jmclnx »

I have believed and still believe India and Pakistan will engage on the first nuclear war :(

I hope it does not happen, but the way things are going in this world, I would not be surprised.

In the past, the USSR and the US would try to broker peace between the two countries. I doubt anyone will try now.

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#15

Post by alephnerd »

jmclnx wrote: post #12

I have believed and still believe India and Pakistan will engage on the first nuclear war :( I hope it does not happen, but the way things are going in this world, I would not be surprised. In the past, the USSR and the US would try to broker peace between the two countries. I doubt anyone will try now.

India has a dedicated No First Use Policy, and the former head of India's nuclear command gave an in depth presentation about India, Pakistan, and China's nuclear doctrine at Livermore Labs a couple years ago - https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=OZpIrZvP0Co

Most of the conversation about a nuclear war is dated (30-35 years old) because it was based on the 1990 standoff, before which India and Pakistan did not have a hotline similar to that which the US and USSR developed.

After the 1990 standoff, that was developed, and was clearly implemented during the Kargil War in 1999 (just because Clinton admin didn't want to call it a war because of NPT implications doesn't mean it wasn't a war).

At this point, be more worried about Ukraine or South Korea - Russia's nuclear doctrine has become much more questionable after the 2022 invasion, and North Korea's nuclear doctrine remains hazy.

I recommend reading "Dangerous Deterrent" by Paul Kapur (former head of strategy at the State Department under Bush, and now Trump's nominee for South Asia Strategy).

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#16

Post by snypher »

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #11
nothercastle wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t think Pakistan will escalate. They are at a severe disadvantage unless china gives them the green light.

Can you explain? What does China's green light give to Pakistan? Are they not able to attack full strength without China's permission? And if so, why?

China is about the only regional power big enough to face off with India, so any move by Pakistan would require Chinese approval lest Pakistan risk China siding with India and getting squished.

Edit; asking Mom for permission to beat up your brother?

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#18

Post by alephnerd »

snypher wrote: post #16
AnimalMuppet wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you explain? What does China's green light give to Pakistan? Are they not able to attack full strength without China's permission? And if so, why?

China is about the only regional power big enough to face off with India, so any move by Pakistan would require Chinese approval lest Pakistan risk China siding with India and getting squished. Edit; asking Mom for permission to beat up your brother?

Overstates the power China has over the Pakistani Military.

Pakistan has built close ties with Turkiye as well to provide a redundancy along with spare parts for older American/NATO weaponry, along with some leverage when dealing with the Chinese.

If anyone has the power to force both to the negotiating table, it's the UAE and KSA due economic and military ties with India and Pakistan. It was both that negotiated the ceasefire that went in flames after Pehalgam - not the US nor China, plus India views China as a direct adversary.

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#19

Post by Karrot_Kream »

jmclnx wrote: post #12

I have believed and still believe India and Pakistan will engage on the first nuclear war :( I hope it does not happen, but the way things are going in this world, I would not be surprised. In the past, the USSR and the US would try to broker peace between the two countries. I doubt anyone will try now.

Hm? The US and Pakistan have seen a lot of tension since the fall of the USSR, and ever since they established a hotline between themselves, there's been much lower risk.

Since the fall of the USSR there's been the Kargil War and the 26/11 Terrorist Incident, along with plenty of other tense moments.

(Additionally, I feel frustrated that your comment about Indian and Pakistani geopolitics seems unaware of the last 30 years of geopolitical developments between the two countries, but not sure that leads to a productive conversation.)

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#20

Post by digitalPhonix »

From the article:

> Pakistan said India hit three sites with missiles, and a military spokesman told Reuters his country shot down five Indian aircraft, a claim not confirmed by India.

That’s a huge loss of aircraft! Are there any corroborating reports or more details about the aircraft/shootdown?

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