Live data from Hacker News

Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

wsj.com

221–230 of 777 posts

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#221
post #32
post #10

You know the craziest thing about watching this as an outsider in Canada is that we as a nation are losing one reliable trading partner (and obviously losing an ally but that's another conversation). Germany - losing a trade partner. Japan? And so on. But the US has lost 180 reliable trading partners. You're already seeing in the first week burgeoning trade alliances between nations who wouldn't have cooperated befor…

I think that those in command are also waiting for the next President to undo all that but it is going to have a tremendous effect for a decade or more. Hopefully for the US they won't go in a similar crisis like the UK is going through... Cutting off countries like Japan or Taiwan like that when we know their geopolitical situation with China and how critical their economy is to the US is quite crazy.

The US wasn't even in a crisis until 2025. We weren't in a stellar position (high deficits and debt, low unemployment but high underemployment). It was all recoverable before Trump started this trade war and doing things like cutting departments that actually brought in revenue.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#222
post #8

This is an inherently political subject, but I would appreciate a dispassionate argument explaining how this could be even remotely good for the U.S.'s economy in a way that is light on MAGA ideology and doesn't simply claim the overwhelming majority of economists are dumb. I'm simply not seeing even a glimmer of a possible upside right now. I see even less possibility of an upside for those of us North of the border…

I’m pretty sure the only ones it will be good for are the rich. Make the rich richer. They will be able to buy stocks cheaply. They will be able to buy homes cheaply as people lose their jobs and foreclose. They will make the USA into a nation of renters. They will increase inflation and prices of everything so most people will be on the cusp of insolvency so they have to work multiple jobs for lower wages and can ne…

The rich have most of their money in stocks, saying they can lower stocks to buy stocks doesn't make much sense

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#223
post #10

You know the craziest thing about watching this as an outsider in Canada is that we as a nation are losing one reliable trading partner (and obviously losing an ally but that's another conversation). Germany - losing a trade partner. Japan? And so on. But the US has lost 180 reliable trading partners. You're already seeing in the first week burgeoning trade alliances between nations who wouldn't have cooperated befor…

>Of course I'm sure some people would claim this is 4D chess or what not but.. sometimes the person doing something crazy is just crazy at the end of the day.

It is crazy and it does have some crazy logic. The US trade deficit is well pronounced only on material goods. If you add services, the deficit is much less, if any. The services are produced by the people and states mostly voting Democratic. So, Trump with his tariffs may succeed in causing the EU and others to retaliate against US services, thus damaging blue states and helping (well in his mind) the red states. Trump already did similar hit against blue states with SALT deduction for example, yet it was just a small preview.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#224

I was looking at used cars on Carmax about two or three weeks ago. I looked again today. They're another $1-2k. This is the shareholder/political class trying to eat their cake and have it too. Pay people a stagnant wage for 40 years while taking most of the surplus value and dedicating it to equities, then pretend to do something about it, but in a way that passes the buck to the people who have been making a stagna…

100% agree with this perspective. It’s surprising how few others seem to note this. Thanks for posting it.

And what is the solution?

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know that a quotation is not necessarily an endorsement, but this is a fantastically short-sighted idea. > it becomes increasingly burdensome for the United States to finance the provision of reserve assets How dare countries want pictures of dead Presidents so badly that... they're willing to send real goods to the United States for its consumption, with no expectation of reciprocation. > and the defense umbrella…

You’re right about all you say. But the US has struggled to implement even the simplest forms of industrial policy because other countries are so extremely price-competitive, and our markets so unbridled, that our “elites” have eroded our industrial base to drive shareholder returns. If not through tariffs, how else do you force reindustrialization? Industrial policy will always fail if it’s driven by a chimeric poli…

Why is it important to force reindustrialization?

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#226
post #8

This is an inherently political subject, but I would appreciate a dispassionate argument explaining how this could be even remotely good for the U.S.'s economy in a way that is light on MAGA ideology and doesn't simply claim the overwhelming majority of economists are dumb. I'm simply not seeing even a glimmer of a possible upside right now. I see even less possibility of an upside for those of us North of the border…

I think in theory it forces the middle class to buy American due to tariffs, which builds a more sustainable lower class at the expense of the middle and lower upper classes. I think it’s still an overall net negative (dramatically) that sees us become overall poorer and less influential, but I would guess there will be more factory sorts of jobs.

We got the factory jobs already: https://home.treasury.gov/news/featured-stories/unpacking-th...

The deadweight losses from this trade are staggering, several percents of gdp that'll mostly hit people who consume imports (mostly low-end goods so probably poor people)

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#227
post #8

This is an inherently political subject, but I would appreciate a dispassionate argument explaining how this could be even remotely good for the U.S.'s economy in a way that is light on MAGA ideology and doesn't simply claim the overwhelming majority of economists are dumb. I'm simply not seeing even a glimmer of a possible upside right now. I see even less possibility of an upside for those of us North of the border…

It is strategically beneficial, for trade agreements, diplomatic leverage and in international conflicts, for a nation to have a strong industrial base, in other words an economy that creates and exports actual physical goods. Tariffs level the playing field in our own consumer economy for American made goods, because without them American manufacturing is competing with countries where labor is absurdly cheap.

American manufacturing by value is at an all time high. The jobs went to automation.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Financial markets are generally better indicators of overall sentiment than betting sites but point taken

Actually, that's not what I've found. When I have compared betting sites like Kalshi and Polymarket to the implied probability of Fed rate cuts in the interest rate futures market, I have found them to match up and move in lock step with each other. (I don't work for any of these companies and I don't use the betting sites myself; just stating my observation.)

That's because there's an easy arbitrage. If the prices get out of line with each other, anyone can buy the cheap one, sell the expensive one, and get free money.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#229
post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Almost all the trade deficit numbers being thrown around by the US administration don't include trade in services which the US generally has a large surplus. A lot of that is very high margin tech SASS/advertising. If this continues it seems like this could be a "digg->reddit" type moment for US tech. In some ways it is easier for a lot of people to leave facebook than it is for a single person. If you look at gross…

>Almost all the trade deficit numbers being thrown around by the US administration don't include trade in services which the US generally has a large surplus. Then why don’t other countries tax US services? I don’t even hear this from anyone in the media too

Countries can and have under the name of "digital services tax". Generally the rates are low and often only cover a subset of things. The US and tech giants have historically pushed back hard on them. This is a reasonably up to date link to the situation in Europe https://taxfoundation.org/data/all/eu/digital-tax-europe-202... Keep in mind many of those are proposed and not implemented.

The real threat to the US IMO is losing marketshare. The stock market has gotten beat up but most of the real pain for the average person is still off in the horizon. Anti-US sentiment is growing quickly, if we enter a full blown global recession/depression I think it could be a real catalyst for large sudden shifts away from US tech companies.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#230
post #30
post #8

This is an inherently political subject, but I would appreciate a dispassionate argument explaining how this could be even remotely good for the U.S.'s economy in a way that is light on MAGA ideology and doesn't simply claim the overwhelming majority of economists are dumb. I'm simply not seeing even a glimmer of a possible upside right now. I see even less possibility of an upside for those of us North of the border…

My best understanding of the administration's psyche is that they're determined to have more manufacturing happen in the US - regardless of the economic impact. It still doesn't make sense though - there's a reason sneaker makers like to have kids in places like Vietnam make shoes for a few cents per hour. It's because no one in the US would work gruelling hours for such little pay! POTUS wants to 'level the field' b…

no, they just like tariff. Listen to trump: he thinks the trade deficit is the fiscal deficit if you listen to the words he actually says
Post reply on HN