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Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

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Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#161

Post by owebmaster »

toddmorey wrote: post #74
lreeves wrote: post #10

You know the craziest thing about watching this as an outsider in Canada is that we as a nation are losing one reliable trading partner (and obviously losing an ally but that's another conversation). Germany - losing a trade partner. Japan? And so on. But the US has lost 180 reliable trading partners. You're already seeing in the first week burgeoning trade alliances between nations who wouldn't have cooperated befor…

Very well put. Alliances take years to build but can be broken in just days. I'm tempted to think (hope? dream?) that the markets and trade will rebound if all this chaos makes American politics swing back towards an interest in global stability, but I think anyone partnering with the US would do so VERY carefully and right now the entire world is plotting how to remove US dependencies.

> I'm tempted to think (hope? dream?) that the markets and trade will rebound if all this chaos makes American politics swing back

The pump'n'dump scheme against Ukraine will forever change how small countries see the US support for democracy, even if it changes back to the previous status-quo.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#162

Post by epgui »

anon373839 wrote: post #73
lreeves wrote: post #10

You know the craziest thing about watching this as an outsider in Canada is that we as a nation are losing one reliable trading partner (and obviously losing an ally but that's another conversation). Germany - losing a trade partner. Japan? And so on. But the US has lost 180 reliable trading partners. You're already seeing in the first week burgeoning trade alliances between nations who wouldn't have cooperated befor…

4D chess is an absurd notion when you consider the actors involved. Only malice and incompetence are credible theories.

This is charitable.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#164

Post by nwatson »

xnx wrote: post #20
fulladder wrote: post #5

Not going to comment on the politics, but I'd point out that recession odds on Kalshi are currently 64% and 58% on Polymarket [1,2]. In other words, recession in 2025 is more likely than not -- though far from guaranteed. My thought relevant to HN is that either way this is likely to decimate venture capital and startups, at least in the short run. Venture capital funds come from limited partners like pensions and en…

Those odds must incorporate some expectations that recent actions get reversed (and quickly!). Recession is guaranteed if new rules stay in place.

It's too late, these actions have shown how truly fragile and arbitrary USA policy is, and extreme anti-current-rules-based-order views are rampant in USA politics. Policy will be volatile and no multinationals or governments will want to deal with the chaos.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#165

Post by pinkmuffinere »

dmoy wrote: post #94
pinkmuffinere wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> virtually guaranteed! I feel like you might be confused about the statement. One platform gives 58% odds, the other gives 64% odds. This is obviously high, but also very far from virtually guaranteed. In 100 trials, we’d expect recession in ~60 events. There is no secret math hidden here, it’s just that.

GP comment is a joke about gambler fallacy (or also MMO crit, drop, etc rates)

Ah lol, I just totally missed the joke

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#166

Post by kalkin »

ViktorRay wrote: post #49
fulladder wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The belief of Trump and his allies is that the last 40 years of free trade has been extremely favorable to college educated "elites" and extremely unfavorable to the working class. They see foreign trade as having hollowed out American manufacturing, and therefore they see the shutting down foreign trade as a way to reverse this decline. While they are aware that doing so will hurt college educated professionals, the…

But these beliefs have been core to the American left for decades. Even left wing intellectuals like Noam Chomsky have attacked the neoliberal trade agreements I think. Trump’s populist right wing fans have adopted traditionally left wing views. What’s surprising is so many left wing people are supportive of free trade when they were against free trade during the Reagan era.

I don't think the left has been automatically in favor of tariffs--or at least I'd appreciate evidence for that claim. The complaints about free trade deals that I've seen have tended to be about provisions that treated various labor and environmental regulations as restraints on trade. It's fair to say that left-liberal people are paying more attention to the downsides of tariffs than they were, but I don't think it's a simple reversal of positions.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#167

Post by victor106 »

nimos wrote: post #102
jarym wrote: post #7

It is interesting that tech (Nasdaq) is the hardest hit here. The real engine of US exports for recent decades and likely to be a casualty as other countries plan their trade-war retaliation. And that's not even taking into consideration what might happen in the domestic market should there be a real recession - consumers will cut down their consumption and that'll filter back to lower corporate earnings. In previous…

Almost all the trade deficit numbers being thrown around by the US administration don't include trade in services which the US generally has a large surplus. A lot of that is very high margin tech SASS/advertising. If this continues it seems like this could be a "digg->reddit" type moment for US tech. In some ways it is easier for a lot of people to leave facebook than it is for a single person. If you look at gross…

>Almost all the trade deficit numbers being thrown around by the US administration don't include trade in services which the US generally has a large surplus.

Then why don’t other countries tax US services? I don’t even hear this from anyone in the media too

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#168

Post by walterbell »

Centigonal wrote: post #55
walterbell wrote: post #23

2024 paper (40 pages) by Stephen Miran, current chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, which has influenced tariff policy, https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/rese... The root of the economic imbalances lies in persistent dollar overvaluation that prevents the balancing of international trade, and this overvaluation is driven by inelastic demand for reserve assets. As global GDP grows, it beco…

> As global GDP grows, it becomes increasingly burdensome for the United States to finance the provision of reserve assets and the defense umbrella I don't understand. US share of global GDP is around where it was in 1980, and in 1995[1]. Is Miran arguing that America's "exorbitant privilege" of being the source of the world's reserve currency, literally being able to buy goods from any country in the world with mone…

Is there any relationship between reserve currency, national security and power projection? https://apnews.com/article/shipbuilding-china-united-states-...

> In only two decades, China has grown to be the dominant player in shipbuilding, claiming more than half of the world’s commercial shipbuilding market, while the U.S. share has fallen to just 0.1%, posing serious economic and national security challenges for the U.S. and its allies, according to a report released Tuesday by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. In 2024 alone, one Chinese shipbuilder constructed more commercial vessels by tonnage than the entire U.S. shipbuilding industry has built since the end of World War II.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#169

Post by api »

lenerdenator wrote: post #37
beloch wrote: post #8

This is an inherently political subject, but I would appreciate a dispassionate argument explaining how this could be even remotely good for the U.S.'s economy in a way that is light on MAGA ideology and doesn't simply claim the overwhelming majority of economists are dumb. I'm simply not seeing even a glimmer of a possible upside right now. I see even less possibility of an upside for those of us North of the border…

> This is an inherently political subject, but I would appreciate a dispassionate argument explaining how this could be even remotely good for the U.S.'s economy in a way that is light on MAGA ideology and doesn't simply claim the overwhelming majority of economists are dumb. The slim hope to a voting bloc in the Upper Midwest that maybe, somehow, this will bring back manufacturing. They've tried everything else; why…

I’m from Southern Ohio which was not hit as hard, but I know the attitude well. I call it “rust belt rage.”

I remember during the first Trump election hearing quotes like “I hope he does as much damage as possible” and “I can’t throw a bomb into the White House but I can throw a Trump.” Lots more like that.

The attitude in that region of the country is absolute seething rage. A lot of people from Northern Ohio, Western Pennsylvania, Michigan, etc. would be gleeful if they saw people hanged. It’s that kind of rage.

Imagine what the vibes would be on the West Coast if there was a huge set of policy changes that decimated and liquidated the high tech industries. All those software and engineering jobs just vaporize in a span of 20 years. Places that were once the wealthiest in the country look like failed states and war zones. Everyone who can leave leaves.

Then the media makes you the butt of jokes. Calls you “flyover country.”

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#170

Post by Majromax »

tayo42 wrote: post #132
labster wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There’s still a way out, the US Congress could convene over the weekend and revoke the President’s ability to impose tariffs. Restore it to Congress as stated in the constitution. Of course they won’t do that. Sic transit gloria mundi.

I started wondering if there's a way for citizens to push the issue that these tarrifs are unconstitutional. Like a lawsuit that got escalated to the Supreme Court or some thing if congress isn't going to. Some of the senators are breaking away though. If the country survives this though the next thing through executive order could be just as bad or worse. There doesn't seem to be any realistic way out of this insani…

> I started wondering if there's a way for citizens to push the issue that these tarrifs are unconstitutional.

Anyone who imports and is assessed a tariff would have personal standing to sue, arguing that the tax is illegal. I think there are some procedural requirements first to e.g. formally complain, but the dispute would eventually get its day in court.

However, these tariffs are being applied at least under a thin veneer of law regarding declared emergencies. It's clearly beyond the intent of the law for Trump to do this, but it's hard to draw a bright line between this and (e.g.) ambitious environmental regulation.

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