Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

First is the uncertainty they are creating. Factories take a long time to build and staff and cost millions to billions depending on size and industry. Who in their right mind is going to invest that to build factories that are only economically viable under a tariff regime that could vaporize after the next election? Or if Trump changes his mind? Which he has a history of doing. Chaos like this is anathema to that kind of long term investment.

I am not opposed to the idea of trying to rebalance trade and repatriate manufacturing. Not at all. But it can be done skillfully, strategically, and without panicking global markets. This economic pivot is less well planned and executed than Biden’s withdrawal from Afghanistan.

The second reason it won’t work is that there’s way more competition today. After WWII during those glory days of US manufacturing everyone talks about Europe was destroyed and much of Asia had not yet industrialized. We were not just selling to a domestic market. We were selling to a world that had no alternatives. That’s just not true anymore.

The third reason it won’t work is that these tariffs are going to be massively inflationary and that will wipe out any gains the working class gets from more or better jobs.

Meanwhile they are doing nothing to address cost disease in housing, health care, or education.

Housing is the big one and I haven’t heard a peep. Instead of using Federal leverage to tilt at windmills like trans people using bathrooms, they could use that power to push states to regularize zoning and allow more home construction. “No more Federal highway funds unless you implement a plan to reduce housing costs.” Now that would help the working class and the young. It would also help things like the birth rate, which I know a bunch of people on the right are freaking out about. Reducing the #1 cost barrier to family formation would help a lot.

In short I think they’re doing a terrible erratic job of implementing a dubious strategy. This is going to fail, and we will all get poorer as a result. China will be the largest beneficiary since even more of global trade will now shift to them. They are now seen as stable, responsible, and reliable while we look like a basket case.

I'm 54. It follows that I see a number of people my age. I'm churchgoing, as well as involved in a number of clubs (pilots, rowing, legos, etc). So I get to rub shoulders with a decent amount of people. And especially a bunch of older people. Our parents are aging.

I'm just beginning to see how hard these years from here on out have a number of difficult challenges. I've begun writing myself notes that I hope will help me navigate the years ahead. One of the key issues is feeling relevant still. As well as losing your competitive edge. Your formative wisdom is being invalidated and eroded constantly.

Couple that with a period of euphoria that was experienced as post WWII prosperity followed by the cessation of the "cold war" and a surge in population, and you have a group of people that are more in their own generational bubble than historically. There's enough peers to make you feel like you're in the majority. I think many of these people feel like this is good, because it feeds the need for relevancy. It's not uncommon for older people to lash out, somewhat foolishly, as they transit these years. And as cognition decreases, it becomes easier to game people in this age bracket (unless someone has a better explanation for why older people are the best target of scams).

As I visit with many of the older genrations (not all of course), their justifications, when pared back often come down to "this makes me feel relevant again". And attempts to restore "the narrative I have in my head about how life was in the good years".

Just some rambling thoughts, about why some people think this is good. It's less about the money to them, and more about a hope of something gained. Not unlike a terminally ill person blowing a wad of cash on something that they would never otherwise have justified.

It is sad, that it comes at the expense of the younger generations. It breaks my heart actually.