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Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

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Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#31
post #29
post #10

You know the craziest thing about watching this as an outsider in Canada is that we as a nation are losing one reliable trading partner (and obviously losing an ally but that's another conversation). Germany - losing a trade partner. Japan? And so on. But the US has lost 180 reliable trading partners. You're already seeing in the first week burgeoning trade alliances between nations who wouldn't have cooperated befor…

Leopards eating a lot of American faces.

But they were supposed to eat other people’s faces. You know THOSE people.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#32
post #10

You know the craziest thing about watching this as an outsider in Canada is that we as a nation are losing one reliable trading partner (and obviously losing an ally but that's another conversation). Germany - losing a trade partner. Japan? And so on. But the US has lost 180 reliable trading partners. You're already seeing in the first week burgeoning trade alliances between nations who wouldn't have cooperated befor…

I think that those in command are also waiting for the next President to undo all that but it is going to have a tremendous effect for a decade or more. Hopefully for the US they won't go in a similar crisis like the UK is going through...

Cutting off countries like Japan or Taiwan like that when we know their geopolitical situation with China and how critical their economy is to the US is quite crazy.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#33
post #12

So honest question: A bunch of people who currently own stock are deciding they'd rather have cash instead -- that much is obvious. But what exactly are they doing with the cash? Don't want to hold onto it, everyone says devaluation and inflation is coming. Bitcoin and gold are kinda flat. I expected them to shoot up as uncertainty hedges. What gives?

If I had $1000 in cash, and inflation hits 10%, the purchasing power is equivalent to (1000 / 1.1 = ~$909) in 2026. If I had the same $1000 in stock, and it lost 11% of its value in 2 days, I might worry about it being worth close to $0 by the end of the month.

If stocks hit $0, you probably have more immediate concerns - like where you are going to get your next meal and if someone is going to shoot you for the contents of your fridge.

Stocks could still continue to fall, but they aren't going to slide to zero.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#34
post #8

This is an inherently political subject, but I would appreciate a dispassionate argument explaining how this could be even remotely good for the U.S.'s economy in a way that is light on MAGA ideology and doesn't simply claim the overwhelming majority of economists are dumb. I'm simply not seeing even a glimmer of a possible upside right now. I see even less possibility of an upside for those of us North of the border…

The belief of Trump and his allies is that the last 40 years of free trade has been extremely favorable to college educated "elites" and extremely unfavorable to the working class. They see foreign trade as having hollowed out American manufacturing, and therefore they see the shutting down foreign trade as a way to reverse this decline. While they are aware that doing so will hurt college educated professionals, the…

the irony is I don’t think there’s any way this hurts the college educated more than the working classes, as most things do.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#35

Not going to comment on the politics, but I'd point out that recession odds on Kalshi are currently 64% and 58% on Polymarket [1,2]. In other words, recession in 2025 is more likely than not -- though far from guaranteed. My thought relevant to HN is that either way this is likely to decimate venture capital and startups, at least in the short run. Venture capital funds come from limited partners like pensions and en…

Good. Silicon Valley collectively sold their souls to Saudi Arabia, and put their full weight behind Trump because that’s what Saudi Arabia wanted, and now they are gonna get what they deserve. I hope their wealth is destroyed to the point of needing to care about Social Security and Medicare.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#36
post #8

This is an inherently political subject, but I would appreciate a dispassionate argument explaining how this could be even remotely good for the U.S.'s economy in a way that is light on MAGA ideology and doesn't simply claim the overwhelming majority of economists are dumb. I'm simply not seeing even a glimmer of a possible upside right now. I see even less possibility of an upside for those of us North of the border…

[flagged]

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#37
post #8

This is an inherently political subject, but I would appreciate a dispassionate argument explaining how this could be even remotely good for the U.S.'s economy in a way that is light on MAGA ideology and doesn't simply claim the overwhelming majority of economists are dumb. I'm simply not seeing even a glimmer of a possible upside right now. I see even less possibility of an upside for those of us North of the border…

> This is an inherently political subject, but I would appreciate a dispassionate argument explaining how this could be even remotely good for the U.S.'s economy in a way that is light on MAGA ideology and doesn't simply claim the overwhelming majority of economists are dumb.

The slim hope to a voting bloc in the Upper Midwest that maybe, somehow, this will bring back manufacturing.

They've tried everything else; why not this?

We can't simply legally punish the people who shipped the factories off and drove the region into despair, so why not tax the stuff the factories made overseas as a part of the trade-off?

I'm not saying it's a good idea, I'm saying this is their logic.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#38
post #8

This is an inherently political subject, but I would appreciate a dispassionate argument explaining how this could be even remotely good for the U.S.'s economy in a way that is light on MAGA ideology and doesn't simply claim the overwhelming majority of economists are dumb. I'm simply not seeing even a glimmer of a possible upside right now. I see even less possibility of an upside for those of us North of the border…

[deleted]

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#39
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I had $1000 in cash, and inflation hits 10%, the purchasing power is equivalent to (1000 / 1.1 = ~$909) in 2026. If I had the same $1000 in stock, and it lost 11% of its value in 2 days, I might worry about it being worth close to $0 by the end of the month.

If stocks hit $0, you probably have more immediate concerns - like where you are going to get your next meal and if someone is going to shoot you for the contents of your fridge. Stocks could still continue to fall, but they aren't going to slide to zero.

Stocks overall? No.

The few stocks I might have specifically invested in? Possible.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#40
post #8

This is an inherently political subject, but I would appreciate a dispassionate argument explaining how this could be even remotely good for the U.S.'s economy in a way that is light on MAGA ideology and doesn't simply claim the overwhelming majority of economists are dumb. I'm simply not seeing even a glimmer of a possible upside right now. I see even less possibility of an upside for those of us North of the border…

The only positive outcome I can think of is that T and co are trying to scare trading partners into lowering their tariffs in response. Assuming that happens to some degree, T will revert his and then take credit. Then the market will return as well, and we all head off into the sunset.

Likely why it is happening so early in the admin, so we can all forget about it by the end.

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