Tech really needs to fall another 50% at least. I think when the big AI bust happens(unless it's happening now), we will see that
Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout
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Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout
#922024 paper (40 pages) by Stephen Miran, current chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, which has influenced tariff policy, https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/rese... The root of the economic imbalances lies in persistent dollar overvaluation that prevents the balancing of international trade, and this overvaluation is driven by inelastic demand for reserve assets. As global GDP grows, it beco…
I know that a quotation is not necessarily an endorsement, but this is a fantastically short-sighted idea.
> it becomes increasingly burdensome for the United States to finance the provision of reserve assets
How dare countries want pictures of dead Presidents so badly that... they're willing to send real goods to the United States for its consumption, with no expectation of reciprocation.
> and the defense umbrella
... and agree to a de-facto policy of minimal militarization, such that they could not pose a threat to America's global security interests, no matter what it decides those are.
A few hundred years ago, this would look like a tribute system. It's unfathomable that a nation in such a privileged position would decide it's tired of such a systematic set of advantages.
> as the manufacturing and tradeable sectors bear the brunt of the costs...
What's the saying, they've tried nothing and are all out of ideas? Industrial policy is a known and understood thing. The US has this in its defense sector even it doesn't want to admit it, and the CHIPS act was another attempt for the semiconductor industry.
This sort of policy is far more targeted and far less disruptive than blowing up international supply chains in hope of repatriating sweat-shop sneaker sewers and factories for five cent injection molded widgets.
Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout
#93This is an inherently political subject, but I would appreciate a dispassionate argument explaining how this could be even remotely good for the U.S.'s economy in a way that is light on MAGA ideology and doesn't simply claim the overwhelming majority of economists are dumb. I'm simply not seeing even a glimmer of a possible upside right now. I see even less possibility of an upside for those of us North of the border…
It is strategically beneficial, for trade agreements, diplomatic leverage and in international conflicts, for a nation to have a strong industrial base, in other words an economy that creates and exports actual physical goods. Tariffs level the playing field in our own consumer economy for American made goods, because without them American manufacturing is competing with countries where labor is absurdly cheap.
Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout
#94Earlier quoted context omitted.
Anyone who's played cards or an MMO know those are insanely good odds -- virtually guaranteed!
> virtually guaranteed! I feel like you might be confused about the statement. One platform gives 58% odds, the other gives 64% odds. This is obviously high, but also very far from virtually guaranteed. In 100 trials, we’d expect recession in ~60 events. There is no secret math hidden here, it’s just that.
GP comment is a joke about gambler fallacy (or also MMO crit, drop, etc rates)
Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout
#95You know the craziest thing about watching this as an outsider in Canada is that we as a nation are losing one reliable trading partner (and obviously losing an ally but that's another conversation). Germany - losing a trade partner. Japan? And so on. But the US has lost 180 reliable trading partners. You're already seeing in the first week burgeoning trade alliances between nations who wouldn't have cooperated befor…
I think that those in command are also waiting for the next President to undo all that but it is going to have a tremendous effect for a decade or more. Hopefully for the US they won't go in a similar crisis like the UK is going through... Cutting off countries like Japan or Taiwan like that when we know their geopolitical situation with China and how critical their economy is to the US is quite crazy.
This. There is no reason why any country should trust us anymore if entire trade relations can be destroyed by a presidential whim.
Even if Trump fell out of a window today and we got a pro-trade president tomorrow, we’re not fixing this damage for a very long time.
We probably would have to amend the constitution to insulate foreign policy from the whims of a single person if we want any chance of fixing this in our lifetime.
Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout
#96You know the craziest thing about watching this as an outsider in Canada is that we as a nation are losing one reliable trading partner (and obviously losing an ally but that's another conversation). Germany - losing a trade partner. Japan? And so on. But the US has lost 180 reliable trading partners. You're already seeing in the first week burgeoning trade alliances between nations who wouldn't have cooperated befor…
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Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout
#97So honest question: A bunch of people who currently own stock are deciding they'd rather have cash instead -- that much is obvious. But what exactly are they doing with the cash? Don't want to hold onto it, everyone says devaluation and inflation is coming. Bitcoin and gold are kinda flat. I expected them to shoot up as uncertainty hedges. What gives?
Interest rates are high enough that holding cash isn't terrible, particularly if you expect the administration to reverse course on tariffs yet again.
Powell said the Fed isn't changing its plans to keep combating inflation from Trump's first term.
TLT is worth considering, though maybe we'll see Elon decide the treasury will default on bond payments.
Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout
#98Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think that those in command are also waiting for the next President to undo all that but it is going to have a tremendous effect for a decade or more. Hopefully for the US they won't go in a similar crisis like the UK is going through... Cutting off countries like Japan or Taiwan like that when we know their geopolitical situation with China and how critical their economy is to the US is quite crazy.
> Hopefully for the US they won't go in a similar crisis like the UK is going through... Err.. do tell about the UK's larger crisis than US'?
I’ve been seeing people call this GEXIT, or global exit.
Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout
#99And no tariffs on Russia, oh I wonder why...
Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout
#100So honest question: A bunch of people who currently own stock are deciding they'd rather have cash instead -- that much is obvious. But what exactly are they doing with the cash? Don't want to hold onto it, everyone says devaluation and inflation is coming. Bitcoin and gold are kinda flat. I expected them to shoot up as uncertainty hedges. What gives?
Trump just said "fuck you" to 95% of the planet. These stocks have a long way to fall. It sure would be nice to have a competent, organized opposition that does more than finger wag and tsk tsk in a scornful tone
Trump has consistently avoided consequences from breaking the rules.
You can’t fight someone like that within the rules, and right now the left will throw anyone who starts breaking the rules in jail while consistently being unable to hold the opposition accountable.
It’s enforced self destruction.