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Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

cneos.jpl.nasa.gov

41–50 of 374 posts

Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

#41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

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What is it with people like you's selective memory? People were dying in droves in places like India or China, scroll down about halfway to see the funeral pyres: https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/piapeterson/covid-pande... They were even just dumping bodies in their holy river because they couldn't afford proper funerals. Congrats for living (I assume) in a modern world with good health and clean air where you we…

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Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

#42

If Mt of asteroid impact roughly equates to a nuclear weapon, then this is pretty bad for a metropolitan area but not enough to put a big dent in humanity.

There's a 3 in 4 chance an asteroid hitting the earth will hit water, and of the remaining change about 50/50 it hits a desert or ice sheet (Antarctica, Greenland).

Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

#43
post #14

I used genAI to help me understand the Palermo scale number seeming low. The 2032 asteroid does warrant tracking, but the Palermo Scale remains below a critical level because: The impact probability (1.2%) is not high enough to trigger a stronger alarm. The background frequency of 8 Mt impacts is relatively high, making this event less statistically exceptional. The event is still 8 years away, so uncertainties in or…

I find it fascinating that some people may brag about not using their brain like that… Asking a LLM about topics you have no idea about it a great way to be misled by hallucinations, don't do that.

It's actually a great way to find concepts to verify and ask questions about. You will often find out about tangential topics you otherwise would not have.

I find it fascinating that people brag about refusing to even try to learn to use new tools just because they don't know how to use them effectively.

Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

#44

This is not an increase over baseline risk (as its Palermo scale[0] indicates, being a negative number, -0.56). I think there's going to be a crisis of media going forwards, because with the very awesome new telescope[1] that's going online this year, the number of these detections is going to drastically go up. The number of objects isn't going up—they've always been there, we just didn't know—but I think the media…

Why crisis? People should simply not look up.

On the other hand, if people are told constantly to look up, eventually they stop looking.

Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

#45
post #25
post #16

For reference the Tunguska event, which was projected to be a 5MT explosion on the low end, flattened about 2000 square kilometers when it airburst. If this hits the ocean it would no doubt cause some large tsunamis. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tunguska_event

This one could be like Tunguska, an air bust maybe around 10km high. Would that cause a large tsunami?

It depends, on where exactly will hit. Similar to nuclear explosions, if one happen over sea or ocean near coast, it will cause extremely large wave, which will be similar to tsunami. If it will hit land, will be small earthquake.

This is why nearly all nuclear explosions was over land or far from coast. Few experiments near some coast or island, created tsunami-like wave on those coast (island), which considerable widen polluted territory (ocean is usually considered as self-cleaning).

Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

#46
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Get a lot of people to jump at the same time to nudge us into the path.

This would move the Earth by less than the width of an atom: https://what-if.xkcd.com/8/

So, we all have to just skip for a while ?

There's a Sci-Fi Plot in there somewhere:

A hero tries to and succeeds in persuading govts to organize a planet scale skipping effort to get earth closer to a passing by rock and escape an impending disaster on earth.

Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

#48
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Get a lot of people to jump at the same time to nudge us into the path.

This would move the Earth by less than the width of an atom: https://what-if.xkcd.com/8/

GP didn’t specify Earth.

Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

#49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I find it fascinating that some people may brag about not using their brain like that… Asking a LLM about topics you have no idea about it a great way to be misled by hallucinations, don't do that.

It's actually a great way to find concepts to verify and ask questions about. You will often find out about tangential topics you otherwise would not have. I find it fascinating that people brag about refusing to even try to learn to use new tools just because they don't know how to use them effectively.

> I find it fascinating that people brag about refusing to even try to learn to use new tools just because they don't know how to use them effectively

Interesting how you jump to conclusion based on nothing. Had you checked my profile (even though it's even more obvious from my Reddit one) you'd have seen that I'm actually pretty savvy when of comes to language models.

But knowing your tools also implies knowing their limits.

Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

#50
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Get a lot of people to jump at the same time to nudge us into the path.

This would move the Earth by less than the width of an atom: https://what-if.xkcd.com/8/

God I love HN.
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