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Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

cneos.jpl.nasa.gov

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Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

#21

Post by roenxi »

perihelions wrote: post #9

This is not an increase over baseline risk (as its Palermo scale[0] indicates, being a negative number, -0.56). I think there's going to be a crisis of media going forwards, because with the very awesome new telescope[1] that's going online this year, the number of these detections is going to drastically go up. The number of objects isn't going up—they've always been there, we just didn't know—but I think the media…

HOWEVER this is an excellent time to review https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_impact_structures_on_E... in particular the S2 to S8 spherule beds found in South Africa (AKA "the big one(s)" or "we are less than dust in the eyes of the gods").

The universe is a big place with some big rocks in it. There are also some !!fun!! simulations of things like the Vredefort impact on YouTube.

Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

#23

Post by readyplayernull »

2-3-7-43-1807 wrote: post #13
perihelions wrote: post #9

This is not an increase over baseline risk (as its Palermo scale[0] indicates, being a negative number, -0.56). I think there's going to be a crisis of media going forwards, because with the very awesome new telescope[1] that's going online this year, the number of these detections is going to drastically go up. The number of objects isn't going up—they've always been there, we just didn't know—but I think the media…

[flagged]

Let's not observe false vacuum.

Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

#24

Post by deadbabe »

perihelions wrote: post #9

This is not an increase over baseline risk (as its Palermo scale[0] indicates, being a negative number, -0.56). I think there's going to be a crisis of media going forwards, because with the very awesome new telescope[1] that's going online this year, the number of these detections is going to drastically go up. The number of objects isn't going up—they've always been there, we just didn't know—but I think the media…

Why crisis? People should simply not look up.

Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

#25

Post by teepo »

redeux wrote: post #16

For reference the Tunguska event, which was projected to be a 5MT explosion on the low end, flattened about 2000 square kilometers when it airburst. If this hits the ocean it would no doubt cause some large tsunamis. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tunguska_event

This one could be like Tunguska, an air bust maybe around 10km high. Would that cause a large tsunami?

Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

#26

Post by cscheid »

perihelions wrote: post #9

This is not an increase over baseline risk (as its Palermo scale[0] indicates, being a negative number, -0.56). I think there's going to be a crisis of media going forwards, because with the very awesome new telescope[1] that's going online this year, the number of these detections is going to drastically go up. The number of objects isn't going up—they've always been there, we just didn't know—but I think the media…

(I worked tangentially on software for analyzing data that will come from the Vera Rubin telescope, and) yeah, while it was designed for spotting weird supernovae and such, the first half of its operation is expected to be dominated by the discovery of near earth objects.

Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

#28

Post by skykooler »

vasco wrote: post #12
lambdadelirium wrote: post #4

What can be done to increase the asteroid impact probability?

Get a lot of people to jump at the same time to nudge us into the path.

This would move the Earth by less than the width of an atom: https://what-if.xkcd.com/8/

Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

#29

Post by netsharc »

2-3-7-43-1807 wrote: post #13
perihelions wrote: post #9

This is not an increase over baseline risk (as its Palermo scale[0] indicates, being a negative number, -0.56). I think there's going to be a crisis of media going forwards, because with the very awesome new telescope[1] that's going online this year, the number of these detections is going to drastically go up. The number of objects isn't going up—they've always been there, we just didn't know—but I think the media…

[flagged]

What is it with people like you's selective memory? People were dying in droves in places like India or China, scroll down about halfway to see the funeral pyres: https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/piapeterson/covid-pande...

They were even just dumping bodies in their holy river because they couldn't afford proper funerals.

Congrats for living (I assume) in a modern world with good health and clean air where you were just "inconvenienced" by shut restaurants and having to wear a mask, but hey, MAGA is fixing that too, let them "doge" your life into poorer air quality and less health protections! Winning!

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