What can be done to increase the asteroid impact probability?
We can land on it, drill and plant nukes inside to shatter it
That's not what they asked
Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy
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Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy
#12What can be done to increase the asteroid impact probability?
Get a lot of people to jump at the same time to nudge us into the path.
Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy
#13This is not an increase over baseline risk (as its Palermo scale[0] indicates, being a negative number, -0.56). I think there's going to be a crisis of media going forwards, because with the very awesome new telescope[1] that's going online this year, the number of these detections is going to drastically go up. The number of objects isn't going up—they've always been there, we just didn't know—but I think the media…
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Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy
#14I used genAI to help me understand the Palermo scale number seeming low.
The 2032 asteroid does warrant tracking, but the Palermo Scale remains below a critical level because:
The impact probability (1.2%) is not high enough to trigger a stronger alarm. The background frequency of 8 Mt impacts is relatively high, making this event less statistically exceptional. The event is still 8 years away, so uncertainties in orbital prediction remain.
Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy
#15> Uncertainty region (3 sigma): 1.65 million km
Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy
#16For reference the Tunguska event, which was projected to be a 5MT explosion on the low end, flattened about 2000 square kilometers when it airburst. If this hits the ocean it would no doubt cause some large tsunamis.
Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy
#17What can be done to increase the asteroid impact probability?
We're gonna need a bigger rock.
Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy
#18What can be done to increase the asteroid impact probability?
Get a lot of people to jump at the same time to nudge us into the path.
that's a beautiful idea. it will only work if we act together as one human race. this is the moment where we have to put political conflicts aside and commit collective suicide.
Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy
#19If Mt of asteroid impact roughly equates to a nuclear weapon, then this is pretty bad for a metropolitan area but not enough to put a big dent in humanity.
I think it if it's far enough out you only need to change it's trajectory only very slightly to reduce to the probably of impact to something much less
Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy
#20Working link: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/details.html#?des=2024%20Y...
8.1 megatons of kinetic energy. According to the Torino rating, only risk of “localized destruction” (less than “regional devastation”): https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/torino_scale.html