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Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

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Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#301

Post by r00fus »

impossiblefork wrote: post #157
nabla9 wrote: post #2

Nvidia -13% in Frankfurt stock market just now. Valuations of private unicorns like OpenAi and Anthropic must be in free fall. DeepSeek spends $6 million in old H800 hardware to develop open source model that overtakes ChatGPT. AI gets better, but profit margins sink with strong competition. Chinese AI startup DeepSeek overtakes ChatGPT on Apple App Store https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42839656 Edit: Nvidia now…

It's a very strange result. I believe that NVIDIA is overvalued, but if DeepSeek really is as great as has been said, then it'll be even greater when scaled up to OpenAI sizes, and when you get more out you have more reason to pay, so this should if it pans out lead to more demand for GPUs-- basically Jevon's paradox.

For Oracle (another Stargate recipient) it was reversion to the mean. For Nvidia, it's a big loss - I imagine they might have predicated their revenue based on the continued need for compute - and now that's in question.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#302

Post by jredwards »

imdsm wrote: post #19
nabla9 wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Their model is open and they published paper describing it https://arxiv.org/pdf/2412.19437 The can't be far off, or it would be noticed. Even if they are heavily government subsidized for energy and hardware, I don see how the cost of training in the US would be more than double.

Let's wait for reproduction first

Posted elsewhere: https://xyzlabs.substack.com/p/berkeley-researchers-replicat...

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#303

Post by kccoder »

dangexplainer wrote: post #283
dageshi wrote: post #149

Well this thread got nuked

[flagged]

Right, everyone should be focused on the rapid dismantling of the government; stuffing his cabinet to the gills with incompetent and dangerous sycophants; pardoning of violent criminals, especially those which nearly killed several officers, and the leaders of the organizations who directed the coup attempt; and the capricious way we are treating our historical allies.

Everything else is a distraction.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#304

Post by IAmGraydon »

fire_lake wrote: post #7

Fascinating. I think Meta is a big winner from this - they still control the content and now mining it for value has been proven even cheaper by DeepSeek.

I'm not so sure about that. Deepseek puts their LLM (Llama) even further behind. It's basically at the back of the pack, signaling to the market that they don't have the top minds in the industry on board. Second, I'm not sure how a massive trove of misinformation is of much use or how it's of more use to them than it is to others. Can you elaborate on that?

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#305

Post by scoofy »

I've been into investing for my entire adult life, and base my strategy mostly on John Neff's work on total return.

I have missed out on a lot of investments in the QE period, because many of them seem like "if this mid-level company becomes the biggest company in the world, you'll make a reasonable return," which has always seemed insane to me, but we've seen it happen again and again. I realize that we are probably in a place where insider trading is much more prevalent that we expect, and that the point of an IPO has been turned on it's head, but these type of potential blowups of high PE stocks is something I've never really come to terms with.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#306

Post by MRtecno98 »

tivert wrote: post #268
pas wrote: post #246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's legally a grey area. It might even be fair use. Facts themselves are not protected by copyright. If there's no unauthorized reproduction/copying then it's not a copyright issue. (Maybe it's a violation of terms of services of course.)

> Facts themselves are not protected by copyright. But don't LLMs encode language, not facts? > If there's no unauthorized reproduction/copying then it's not a copyright issue. I'm pretty sure copyright holders have gotten the models to regurgitate their copyright works verbatim, or nearly so.

We don't know what LLMs encode because we don't know what the model weights represent.

On the second point it depends how the models were made to reporduce text verbatim. If i copy-paste someone's article in MS word i technically made word reproduce the text verbatim., obviously that's not Word's fault. If i asked an LLM explicitly to list the entire Bee Movie script it would probably do it, which means it was trained on it, but that's through a direct and clear request to copy the original verbatim.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#307

Post by MRtecno98 »

throw310822 wrote: post #265
grajaganDev wrote: post #230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right and LLMs will not be able to generate their own high quality training data. There are no perpetual motion machines.

> LLMs will not be able to generate their own high quality training data. Humans certainly did. We did not inherit our physics and poetry books from some aliens.

LLMs are not humans, nowhere near.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#308

Post by aurareturn »

bfeynman wrote: post #241
aurareturn wrote: post #231

Deepseek should cause Nvidia and TSMC stocks to go up, not down. I'm buying more Nvidia and TSMC today. 1. More efficient LLMs should lead to more usage, which means more AI chip demand. Jevon's Paradox. 2. To build a moat, OpenAI and American AI companies need to up their datacenter spending even more. 3. DeepSeek's breakthrough is in distilling models. You still need a ton of compute to train the foundational model…

you're looking at it from economic theory not from stock market. NVIDIA's insane valuation right now was based on an almost exponential increase in demand for more and more of it. It's priced in that NVIDIA will continue that trend. DeepSeek proves that trajectory is no longer needed (not that it was ever cemented in rationalism), so anything less than the continued exponential growth would send stock down.

Jevon’s paradox suggests even more AI chips will be demanded after DeepSeek’s breakthrough.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#309

Post by tokioyoyo »

RugnirViking wrote: post #115
thelastgallon wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Please try to at least attempt to consider nuance. Do you seriously think that would happen? What is your point here? Do you think people in favor of restricting one thing are in favor of restricting everything?

People are trying to spur up “we shouldn’t use Chinese AI because our data is going to be stolen” discussions. But after TikTok debacle, no serious person is willing to bite. It’s just a big coping strategy for everyone who’s been saying how western AI is years ahead.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#310

Post by nialv7 »

impossiblefork wrote: post #249
nialv7 wrote: post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You need to be prepared for the reality that naive scaling no longer works for LLMs anymore. Simple question: where is GPT-5?

It is a possibility, but my understanding of what OpenAI has said is that GPT-5 is delayed because of the apparent promise of RL trained things like o1, etc. and that they've simply decided to train those instead of training a bigger base model training on better data, and I think this is plausible.

OpenAI has an incentive to make people believe that the scaling laws are still alive, to justify their enormous capex if nothing else.

I wouldn't give what they say to much credence, and will only believe the results I see.

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