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Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

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Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#241

Post by bfeynman »

aurareturn wrote: post #231

Deepseek should cause Nvidia and TSMC stocks to go up, not down. I'm buying more Nvidia and TSMC today. 1. More efficient LLMs should lead to more usage, which means more AI chip demand. Jevon's Paradox. 2. To build a moat, OpenAI and American AI companies need to up their datacenter spending even more. 3. DeepSeek's breakthrough is in distilling models. You still need a ton of compute to train the foundational model…

you're looking at it from economic theory not from stock market. NVIDIA's insane valuation right now was based on an almost exponential increase in demand for more and more of it. It's priced in that NVIDIA will continue that trend. DeepSeek proves that trajectory is no longer needed (not that it was ever cemented in rationalism), so anything less than the continued exponential growth would send stock down.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#242

Post by aurareturn »

mullingitover wrote: post #239
aurareturn wrote: post #231

Deepseek should cause Nvidia and TSMC stocks to go up, not down. I'm buying more Nvidia and TSMC today. 1. More efficient LLMs should lead to more usage, which means more AI chip demand. Jevon's Paradox. 2. To build a moat, OpenAI and American AI companies need to up their datacenter spending even more. 3. DeepSeek's breakthrough is in distilling models. You still need a ton of compute to train the foundational model…

That’s a rational stance. However, the Buffet Indicator is flashing red, we’re in a dotcom-era sized bubble, and it only takes a little bit of ill-founded worry to kick off a serious panic.

But why would an AI breakthrough cause stocks to go down? It should cause it to go up. It means we should expect even more breakthroughs, better models, more LLM usage, etc.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#243

Post by nullocator »

jart wrote: post #144
Dalewyn wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The stock market is not the economy, Wall Street is not Main Street. You need to look at this more macroscopically if you want to understand this. Basically: China tech sector just made a big splash, traders who witnessed this think other traders will sell because maybe US tech sector wasn't as hot, so they sell as other traders also think that and sell. The fall will come to rest once stocks have fallen enough that…

Not really. The Magnificent Seven are the only thing propping up the whole US economy. If they go down, you go down.

Isn't this a good reason to break these companies up and mitigate the risk?

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#244

Post by mullingitover »

aurareturn wrote: post #242
mullingitover wrote: post #239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s a rational stance. However, the Buffet Indicator is flashing red, we’re in a dotcom-era sized bubble, and it only takes a little bit of ill-founded worry to kick off a serious panic.

But why would an AI breakthrough cause stocks to go down? It should cause it to go up. It means we should expect even more breakthroughs, better models, more LLM usage, etc.

Bull runs don’t require a rational basis, neither do panics.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#245

Post by Jlagreen »

ransom1538 wrote: post #83
dogma1138 wrote: post #6

Good time to buy then, I don’t understand how stupid some traders can be. A more efficient model is better for NVIDIA not worse. More compute is still better given the same model. And as more efficient models proliferate it means more edge computing which means more customers with lower negotiating power than Meta and Google… This is like thinking that if people need to dig only 1 day instead of an entire month to ge…

"dig only 1 day instead of an entire month" You answered your own question. People do not dig in the Sacramento right anymore for gold, because, it is gone. If you can train models for 1/100 the cost, and you sell model training chips, you probably are not going to sell as many chips.

That's why the shovel maker from back then are selling mining machines today.

Everyone here thinks Nvidia is dommed because of training efficiency.

But what has Nvidia been doing for the past decade? Correct increasing training and inferencing efficiency by magnitudes.

Try to train GPT4 on 10k of Volta, Ampere, Hopper and then Blackwell.

What has happened since then? Nvidia has increased their sales in magnitudes.

Why? Because thanks to improvement in data, in algorithms, compute efficiency ChatGPT was possible in the first place.

Imagine Nvidia wouldn't exist. When do you think the ChatGPT moment would happen on CPUs? LOL

Going back to my first sentence. Nvidia started also with small shovels which were GeForce cards with CUDA. Today Nvidia is selling huge GPU clusters (mining machines, yes pun intended ^^).

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#246

Post by pas »

lmm wrote: post #175
esperent wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> DeepSeek spends $6 million in old H800 hardware to develop open source model that overtakes ChatGPT. DeepSeek claims that's what they spent. They're under a trade embargo, and if they had access to any more than that it would have been obtained illegally. They might be telling the truth, but let's wait until someone else replicates it before we fully accept it.

All of the western AI companies trained on illegally obtained data, they barely even bother to deny it. This is an industry where lies are normalised. (Not to contradict your point about this specific number)

It's legally a grey area. It might even be fair use. Facts themselves are not protected by copyright. If there's no unauthorized reproduction/copying then it's not a copyright issue. (Maybe it's a violation of terms of services of course.)

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#248

Post by blitzar »

Jlagreen wrote: post #234
blitzar wrote: post #198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The $500 billion data center can now be $50 billion. That is excellent news, unless you were the company that was expected to sell $450 billion of GPUs with a 95% gross margin to that project.

$50 billion can be afforded by WAY WAY more sites and companies so Nvidia will simply delivered to >10x more data centers. Or instead of shipping 100k GPUs to Meta, they will ship 100k GPUs to 10 different customers. For Nvidia, it is great news because now finally, the concentration of GPUs at Hyperscalers will end and every Fortune company can finally get their local data center to train their AI Models. Because if…

> $50 billion can be afforded by WAY WAY more sites and companies

Spending $50 billion to do $6 million worth of Ai training seems like a good way to trigger a golden parachute and "spend more time with your family" as a CEO.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#249

Post by impossiblefork »

nialv7 wrote: post #219
impossiblefork wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a very strange result. I believe that NVIDIA is overvalued, but if DeepSeek really is as great as has been said, then it'll be even greater when scaled up to OpenAI sizes, and when you get more out you have more reason to pay, so this should if it pans out lead to more demand for GPUs-- basically Jevon's paradox.

You need to be prepared for the reality that naive scaling no longer works for LLMs anymore. Simple question: where is GPT-5?

It is a possibility, but my understanding of what OpenAI has said is that GPT-5 is delayed because of the apparent promise of RL trained things like o1, etc. and that they've simply decided to train those instead of training a bigger base model training on better data, and I think this is plausible.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#250

Post by Jlagreen »

NicoJuicy wrote: post #232
aurareturn wrote: post #231

Deepseek should cause Nvidia and TSMC stocks to go up, not down. I'm buying more Nvidia and TSMC today. 1. More efficient LLMs should lead to more usage, which means more AI chip demand. Jevon's Paradox. 2. To build a moat, OpenAI and American AI companies need to up their datacenter spending even more. 3. DeepSeek's breakthrough is in distilling models. You still need a ton of compute to train the foundational model…

Ugh. No, we can now run a decent model through CPU. Not an expensive video card. Just try out the standard deepseek-r1 or even the deepseek-r1:1.5B through ollama. No need for expensive hardware anymore locally. My PC ( without Nvidia card/expensive hardware) runs the a deepseek 1.5 b query fast enough - 2 - 9 seconds until it's finished.

I would shoot myself if I had to wait 9 seconds for a query. I sometimes even would like to kill by browser taking seconds to open a page...
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