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Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

finance.yahoo.com

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Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#11

Post by gostsamo »

nabla9 wrote: post #2

Nvidia -13% in Frankfurt stock market just now. Valuations of private unicorns like OpenAi and Anthropic must be in free fall. DeepSeek spends $6 million in old H800 hardware to develop open source model that overtakes ChatGPT. AI gets better, but profit margins sink with strong competition. Chinese AI startup DeepSeek overtakes ChatGPT on Apple App Store https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42839656 Edit: Nvidia now…

Consider that the chinese might be misrepresenting their costs. A newsletter was implying that they might do it to undermine the sanctions justifications.

Agree that the AI bubble should pop though and the earlier, the better.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#12

Post by diegocg »

dogma1138 wrote: post #6

Good time to buy then, I don’t understand how stupid some traders can be. A more efficient model is better for NVIDIA not worse. More compute is still better given the same model. And as more efficient models proliferate it means more edge computing which means more customers with lower negotiating power than Meta and Google… This is like thinking that if people need to dig only 1 day instead of an entire month to ge…

Nvidia is way too overvalued regardless of deepseek or the success of AI. This is just some correction (not even too big even considering the current bubble), these traders are not stupid.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#13

Post by esperent »

nabla9 wrote: post #2

Nvidia -13% in Frankfurt stock market just now. Valuations of private unicorns like OpenAi and Anthropic must be in free fall. DeepSeek spends $6 million in old H800 hardware to develop open source model that overtakes ChatGPT. AI gets better, but profit margins sink with strong competition. Chinese AI startup DeepSeek overtakes ChatGPT on Apple App Store https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42839656 Edit: Nvidia now…

> DeepSeek spends $6 million in old H800 hardware to develop open source model that overtakes ChatGPT.

DeepSeek claims that's what they spent. They're under a trade embargo, and if they had access to any more than that it would have been obtained illegally.

They might be telling the truth, but let's wait until someone else replicates it before we fully accept it.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#14

Post by dogma1138 »

diegocg wrote: post #12
dogma1138 wrote: post #6

Good time to buy then, I don’t understand how stupid some traders can be. A more efficient model is better for NVIDIA not worse. More compute is still better given the same model. And as more efficient models proliferate it means more edge computing which means more customers with lower negotiating power than Meta and Google… This is like thinking that if people need to dig only 1 day instead of an entire month to ge…

Nvidia is way too overvalued regardless of deepseek or the success of AI. This is just some correction (not even too big even considering the current bubble), these traders are not stupid.

NVIDIA has a P/E ratio of 56 that’s double that of the S&P 500 but half that of AMD and the same one as Meta.

And whether it’s overvalued or not isn’t relevant that selling a stock because the product the company produces is now even more effective is mind bogglingly stupid.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#15

Post by nabla9 »

gostsamo wrote: post #11
nabla9 wrote: post #2

Nvidia -13% in Frankfurt stock market just now. Valuations of private unicorns like OpenAi and Anthropic must be in free fall. DeepSeek spends $6 million in old H800 hardware to develop open source model that overtakes ChatGPT. AI gets better, but profit margins sink with strong competition. Chinese AI startup DeepSeek overtakes ChatGPT on Apple App Store https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42839656 Edit: Nvidia now…

Consider that the chinese might be misrepresenting their costs. A newsletter was implying that they might do it to undermine the sanctions justifications. Agree that the AI bubble should pop though and the earlier, the better.

Their model is open and they published paper describing it https://arxiv.org/pdf/2412.19437 The can't be far off, or it would be noticed.

Even if they are heavily government subsidized for energy and hardware, I don see how the cost of training in the US would be more than double.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#16

Post by InkCanon »

dogma1138 wrote: post #14
diegocg wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nvidia is way too overvalued regardless of deepseek or the success of AI. This is just some correction (not even too big even considering the current bubble), these traders are not stupid.

NVIDIA has a P/E ratio of 56 that’s double that of the S&P 500 but half that of AMD and the same one as Meta. And whether it’s overvalued or not isn’t relevant that selling a stock because the product the company produces is now even more effective is mind bogglingly stupid.

It's arguable how good a strategy it is to check against other P/E. During the tech bubble people would say X is cheap, because Y is trading at 100P/E instead of 200

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#18

Post by nolok »

nabla9 wrote: post #2

Nvidia -13% in Frankfurt stock market just now. Valuations of private unicorns like OpenAi and Anthropic must be in free fall. DeepSeek spends $6 million in old H800 hardware to develop open source model that overtakes ChatGPT. AI gets better, but profit margins sink with strong competition. Chinese AI startup DeepSeek overtakes ChatGPT on Apple App Store https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42839656 Edit: Nvidia now…

They were massively overhyped though, it feels more like a correction (and a partial one at that) than a fall.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#19

Post by imdsm »

nabla9 wrote: post #15
gostsamo wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Consider that the chinese might be misrepresenting their costs. A newsletter was implying that they might do it to undermine the sanctions justifications. Agree that the AI bubble should pop though and the earlier, the better.

Their model is open and they published paper describing it https://arxiv.org/pdf/2412.19437 The can't be far off, or it would be noticed. Even if they are heavily government subsidized for energy and hardware, I don see how the cost of training in the US would be more than double.

Let's wait for reproduction first

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#20

Post by InkCanon »

Discordian93 wrote: post #5

It's funny the bubble seems popping because the tech can be made better or cheaper instead due to loss of enthusiasm for the tech itself. AI is here to stay I suppose then.

If anything Meta and other foundation model companies should be dropping. What's the moat? DeepSeek is releasing stuff for free.
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