Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

finance.yahoo.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

261–270 of 1001 posts

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#261

Post by bee_rider »

esperent wrote: post #207
maxglute wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>been obtained illegally. PRC companies breaking US export control laws is legal (for PRC companies). Maybe they're trying to avoid US entity listing, lot's of PRC companies keep mum about growing capabilites to do so. But the mere fact Deepseek is publicizing means they're unlikely to care about the political heat that is coming and the ramifications. If anything, getting on US entity list probably locks in their em…

> PRC companies breaking US export control laws is legal So long as they don't plan to do any business with the US or any of their allies I guess.

If they sell software and build devices in China and then people from the US or our allies have to break our laws to import it, it seems like an us problem.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#262

Post by rsanek »

elorant wrote: post #255
bufferoverflow wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You call R1 a small model? It's a 671-billion parameter model.

There are multiple variations of the model starting from 1.5B parameters.

have you used those? in my experience even the 70B distillation is far worse than what you can expect from o1 / the R1 available on the web

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#263

Post by bee_rider »

ASML plunge indicates a hysterical/irrational component to the response, right? They aren’t going anywhere. If it turns out training is easier than expected, they make the devices that make the devices that do inference too…

If the field is going to produce anything useful, cheap training gets us there faster.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#264

Post by rsanek »

jart wrote: post #144
Dalewyn wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The stock market is not the economy, Wall Street is not Main Street. You need to look at this more macroscopically if you want to understand this. Basically: China tech sector just made a big splash, traders who witnessed this think other traders will sell because maybe US tech sector wasn't as hot, so they sell as other traders also think that and sell. The fall will come to rest once stocks have fallen enough that…

Not really. The Magnificent Seven are the only thing propping up the whole US economy. If they go down, you go down.

s&p500 was still up by normal amounts during 2023 and 2024 if you exclude big tech. definitely they are an outsize portion of the index but that doesn't mean the rest of the economy isn't growing. https://www.inc.com/phil-rosen/stock-market-outlook-sp500-in...

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#265

Post by throw310822 »

grajaganDev wrote: post #230
alecco wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The limit is high quality data, not compute.

Right and LLMs will not be able to generate their own high quality training data. There are no perpetual motion machines.

> LLMs will not be able to generate their own high quality training data.

Humans certainly did. We did not inherit our physics and poetry books from some aliens.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#266

Post by throwup238 »

igleria wrote: post #147
sekai wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Andrej Karpathy was tweeting about DeepSeek a month (!) ago. "DeepSeek (Chinese AI co) making it look easy today with an open weights release of a frontier-grade LLM trained on a joke of a budget (2048 GPUs for 2 months, $6M)." https://x.com/karpathy/status/1872362712958906460

this same forum ignored deepseek one month ago, save for a few... open minded people.

Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race (27 days ago, 465 comments): https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42557586

Are we talking about the same forum? HN commenters have been raving about DeepSeek v3 for at least a month.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#268

Post by tivert »

pas wrote: post #246
lmm wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All of the western AI companies trained on illegally obtained data, they barely even bother to deny it. This is an industry where lies are normalised. (Not to contradict your point about this specific number)

It's legally a grey area. It might even be fair use. Facts themselves are not protected by copyright. If there's no unauthorized reproduction/copying then it's not a copyright issue. (Maybe it's a violation of terms of services of course.)

> Facts themselves are not protected by copyright.

But don't LLMs encode language, not facts?

> If there's no unauthorized reproduction/copying then it's not a copyright issue.

I'm pretty sure copyright holders have gotten the models to regurgitate their copyright works verbatim, or nearly so.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#269

Post by hintymad »

I don't quite understand the sentiment. Lowered cost of training and inference means more companies can join the game, and therefore more demand for the hardware. Basically Jevon's paradox in play. What will more likely fall instead in the long-term should be OAI's valuation, if they don't have other killer products.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#270

Post by paganel »

GuB-42 wrote: post #85
thelastgallon wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

The issue here is not that DeepSeek exists as a competitor to GPT, Claude, Gemini,... The issue is that DeepSeek have shown that you don't need that much raw computing power to run an AI, which means that companies including OpenAI may focus more on efficiency than on throwing more GPUs at the problem, which is not good news for those in the business of making GPUs. At least according to the market.

One of the questions about this is that of the US’s human capital, i.e. does the US (still) have enough capable tech people in order to make that happen?
Post reply on HN