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Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

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Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#181

Post by lmm »

impossiblefork wrote: post #157
nabla9 wrote: post #2

Nvidia -13% in Frankfurt stock market just now. Valuations of private unicorns like OpenAi and Anthropic must be in free fall. DeepSeek spends $6 million in old H800 hardware to develop open source model that overtakes ChatGPT. AI gets better, but profit margins sink with strong competition. Chinese AI startup DeepSeek overtakes ChatGPT on Apple App Store https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42839656 Edit: Nvidia now…

It's a very strange result. I believe that NVIDIA is overvalued, but if DeepSeek really is as great as has been said, then it'll be even greater when scaled up to OpenAI sizes, and when you get more out you have more reason to pay, so this should if it pans out lead to more demand for GPUs-- basically Jevon's paradox.

If the top-tier premium GPUs aren't the difference-maker they were thought to be then that will hurt NVIDIA's margins, even if they make some of it up on volume.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#182

Post by benterix »

nolok wrote: post #18
nabla9 wrote: post #2

Nvidia -13% in Frankfurt stock market just now. Valuations of private unicorns like OpenAi and Anthropic must be in free fall. DeepSeek spends $6 million in old H800 hardware to develop open source model that overtakes ChatGPT. AI gets better, but profit margins sink with strong competition. Chinese AI startup DeepSeek overtakes ChatGPT on Apple App Store https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42839656 Edit: Nvidia now…

They were massively overhyped though, it feels more like a correction (and a partial one at that) than a fall.

Of course they are overhyped but in spite of this Altman is always asking for more money. And we know financially they are just burning money. So when someone finally brings a cheap but good model for the masses, this is where money should go. (This will also help all small AI startups.)

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#183

Post by qwytw »

asddubs wrote: post #88
zo1 wrote: post #43

Wow, literally bought more Nvidia shares last week. Just goes to show the stock market is 80% gambling. Me believing in the value of a company is overshadowed by the hype of growth and "future valuation".

the price hasn't even dropped to as low as it was last week

I don't think it has been this low (~$126) since October?

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#184

Post by lmm »

RugnirViking wrote: post #115
thelastgallon wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Please try to at least attempt to consider nuance. Do you seriously think that would happen? What is your point here? Do you think people in favor of restricting one thing are in favor of restricting everything?

> Please try to at least attempt to consider nuance. Do you seriously think that would happen? What is your point here? Do you think people in favor of restricting one thing are in favor of restricting everything?

The restriction on TikTok was blatantly because it's a Chinese product outcompeting American products, everything else was the thinnest of smokescreens. Yes, I think people in favour of it are in favour of slapping whatever tariffs or bans they can get away with on everything that China makes.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#185

Post by ReptileMan »

reacharavindh wrote: post #172

What I’d like to know is.. If a good model can be trained with much fewer GPUs using a breakthrough technique, can the breakthrough technique be used by OpenAI, MSFT et al who has loads of GPUs to train a model that is orders of magnitude better than their state of the art today? We’ve been getting the impression that the limiting factor was the number of GPUs right? If so, this reduces that bottleneck and frees them…

From my understanding the limiting factor is the quantity and quality of data available for training.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#186

Post by alecco »

impossiblefork wrote: post #157
nabla9 wrote: post #2

Nvidia -13% in Frankfurt stock market just now. Valuations of private unicorns like OpenAi and Anthropic must be in free fall. DeepSeek spends $6 million in old H800 hardware to develop open source model that overtakes ChatGPT. AI gets better, but profit margins sink with strong competition. Chinese AI startup DeepSeek overtakes ChatGPT on Apple App Store https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42839656 Edit: Nvidia now…

It's a very strange result. I believe that NVIDIA is overvalued, but if DeepSeek really is as great as has been said, then it'll be even greater when scaled up to OpenAI sizes, and when you get more out you have more reason to pay, so this should if it pans out lead to more demand for GPUs-- basically Jevon's paradox.

The limit is high quality data, not compute.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#187

Post by alecco »

junon wrote: post #78

Not sure what the fuss is. I tried Deepseek earlier today for the first time and it was even worse than o1 when it came to reasoning skills and following my requests for how I wanted to engage with it. o1 at least gives it to me straight. When I ask it to engage in more back and forth before assuming what I'm after, it tends to follow through. Deepseek seemed immediately eager to (very slowly) feed me a bunch of made…

Deepseek shows you details of the reasoning so you can trust its answers more and you can correct it when it makes a bad turn.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#188

Post by alecco »

igleria wrote: post #67

I will never forget HN's not-made-in-the-US bias https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42514633

I think part of the problem was many/most previous models coming out of China were trained on eval data to cheat in the rankings. Quite an uphill battle for Deepseek.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#189

Post by alecco »

yani wrote: post #137

Could NVIDIA be in hot water if it's proven they sold restricted hardware to Chinese companies?

H800s were made to match Biden's export restrictions. They were banned in late 2023 but a lot were sold to China. Having 2k is quite small compared to the bigger players like BABA (200k employees) and Tencent (100k employees). And those sure have access to the few H100s that were smuggled. But unlikely for a tiny company like High-Flyer/Deepseek (160 employees).

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#190

Post by [deleted] »

plaidfuji wrote: post #160

The part of this that doesn’t jibe with me is the fact that they also released this incredibly detailed technical report on their architecture and training strategy. The paper is well-written and has a lot of specifics. Exactly the opposite of what you would do if you had truly made an advancement of world-altering magnitude. All this says to me is that the models themselves have very little intrinsic value / are hig…

[deleted]
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