71–80 of 1001 posts
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Nvidia is way too overvalued regardless of deepseek or the success of AI. This is just some correction (not even too big even considering the current bubble), these traders are not stupid.
agreed but ASML has been chronically undervalued forever.
I find it interesting because the DeepSeek stuff, while very cool, doesn't seem invalidate that more compute wouldn't translate to even _higher_ capabilities? It's amazing what they did with a limited budget, but instead of the takeaway being "we don't need that much compute to achieve X", it could also be, "These new results show that we can achieve even 1000*X with our currently planned compute buildout" But perhap…
Basically: China tech sector just made a big splash, traders who witnessed this think other traders will sell because maybe US tech sector wasn't as hot, so they sell as other traders also think that and sell.
The fall will come to rest once stocks have fallen enough that traders stop thinking other traders will sell.
Investors holding for the long haul will see this fall as stocks going on sale and proceed to buy because they think other investors will buy.
Meanwhile in the real world, on Main Street, nothing has really changed.
Bogleheads meanwhile are just starting the day with their coffee, no damns given to the machinations of the stock market because it's Monday and there's work to be done.
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NVIDIA has a P/E ratio of 56 that’s double that of the S&P 500 but half that of AMD and the same one as Meta. And whether it’s overvalued or not isn’t relevant that selling a stock because the product the company produces is now even more effective is mind bogglingly stupid.
It's arguable how good a strategy it is to check against other P/E. During the tech bubble people would say X is cheap, because Y is trading at 100P/E instead of 200
Buy the dip
Good time to buy then, I don’t understand how stupid some traders can be. A more efficient model is better for NVIDIA not worse. More compute is still better given the same model. And as more efficient models proliferate it means more edge computing which means more customers with lower negotiating power than Meta and Google… This is like thinking that if people need to dig only 1 day instead of an entire month to ge…
Nvidia is way too overvalued regardless of deepseek or the success of AI. This is just some correction (not even too big even considering the current bubble), these traders are not stupid.
In addition, IMO NVDA’s margins are a gift and a curse. They look great to investors, but also mean all their customers are aggressively looking to produce their own GPUs.
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If anything Meta and other foundation model companies should be dropping. What's the moat? DeepSeek is releasing stuff for free.
Meta should actually go up from this. If deep seek is perfect they don't need to pay for an expensive Llama team. And even if deep seek isn't perfect, the low cost training strategies they've invented could be used by Meta to reduce the cost of Llama training. Although Meta develops models they don't sell them. So a world where foundation models are free is fine for them.
Good time to buy then, I don’t understand how stupid some traders can be. A more efficient model is better for NVIDIA not worse. More compute is still better given the same model. And as more efficient models proliferate it means more edge computing which means more customers with lower negotiating power than Meta and Google… This is like thinking that if people need to dig only 1 day instead of an entire month to ge…
90% of traders lose money, so that's a data point...
You're trying to apply rational thinking but that's not how markets work. In the end valuations are more about narratives in the collective mind than technological merit.
o1 at least gives it to me straight. When I ask it to engage in more back and forth before assuming what I'm after, it tends to follow through. Deepseek seemed immediately eager to (very slowly) feed me a bunch of made up information thinking that's what I wanted.
I feel as though a lot of people get hung up on these sort of "micro benchmarks" whereas trying to get practical work done is severely under tested. I'm not a fan of openai at all but I don't have the spare compute to run anything locally so o1 suffices for now.
Still don't see how this is anything but a win for Nvidia though.
I saw the interview with Dario Amodei. Look at 0:48 https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7LNyUbii0zw He seems adamant that there are no diminishing returns to scaling AI. I don’t want to stir up conspiracy theories but I do think that currently all the big AI players have a vested interest in the message that the current scaling paradigm is the right one, and that this is a supremacy issue wrt China. It drives so much inves…
500 Billion is a lot of money. Expect even crimes to be commited in order to make it happen.
Nvidia -13% in Frankfurt stock market just now. Valuations of private unicorns like OpenAi and Anthropic must be in free fall. DeepSeek spends $6 million in old H800 hardware to develop open source model that overtakes ChatGPT. AI gets better, but profit margins sink with strong competition. Chinese AI startup DeepSeek overtakes ChatGPT on Apple App Store https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42839656 Edit: Nvidia now…
> DeepSeek spends $6 million in old H800 hardware to develop open source model that overtakes ChatGPT. DeepSeek claims that's what they spent. They're under a trade embargo, and if they had access to any more than that it would have been obtained illegally. They might be telling the truth, but let's wait until someone else replicates it before we fully accept it.