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Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

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Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#51

Post by chad1n »

nabla9 wrote: post #2

Nvidia -13% in Frankfurt stock market just now. Valuations of private unicorns like OpenAi and Anthropic must be in free fall. DeepSeek spends $6 million in old H800 hardware to develop open source model that overtakes ChatGPT. AI gets better, but profit margins sink with strong competition. Chinese AI startup DeepSeek overtakes ChatGPT on Apple App Store https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42839656 Edit: Nvidia now…

This is not exactly right, they said they spent $6M on training V3, there aren't numbers out there related to the training of R1, I can feel it will be cheaper than o1, but it's hard to tell how much cheaper. I can guess that overall deepseek spent way less than openai to release the model, because I have the feeling that the R&D part was cheaper too, but we don't have the numbers yet. Anyway, we can assume that deepseek and Alibaba will try to get the most out of their current GPUs however.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#53

Post by mistercow »

dogma1138 wrote: post #6

Good time to buy then, I don’t understand how stupid some traders can be. A more efficient model is better for NVIDIA not worse. More compute is still better given the same model. And as more efficient models proliferate it means more edge computing which means more customers with lower negotiating power than Meta and Google… This is like thinking that if people need to dig only 1 day instead of an entire month to ge…

I think it's because the media coverage is all focused on how this means the big AI players have lost their competitive advantage, rather than the other side of the equation.

But that's also dumb, because "huge leap forward in training efficiency" is not exactly bad news for the major players in even the medium term. Short term, it means their models are less competitive, but I don't see any reason that they can't leverage e.g. these new mixed precision training techniques on their giant GPU farms and train something even bigger and smarter.

There seems to be this weird baked in assumption that AI is at a permanent (or at least semi-permanent) plateau, and that open source models catching up is the end of the game. But this is an arms race, and we're nowhere near the finish line.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#54

Post by Sol- »

I find it interesting because the DeepSeek stuff, while very cool, doesn't seem invalidate that more compute wouldn't translate to even _higher_ capabilities?

It's amazing what they did with a limited budget, but instead of the takeaway being "we don't need that much compute to achieve X", it could also be, "These new results show that we can achieve even 1000*X with our currently planned compute buildout"

But perhaps the idea is more like: "We already have more AI capabilities than we know how to integrate into the economy for the time being" and if that's the hypothesis, then the availability of something this cheap would change the equation somewhat and possibly justify investing less money in more compute.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#55

Post by Dalewyn »

Etheryte wrote: post #38
dogma1138 wrote: post #6

Good time to buy then, I don’t understand how stupid some traders can be. A more efficient model is better for NVIDIA not worse. More compute is still better given the same model. And as more efficient models proliferate it means more edge computing which means more customers with lower negotiating power than Meta and Google… This is like thinking that if people need to dig only 1 day instead of an entire month to ge…

While everything you say may be true, this shows a fundamental misunderstanding about how the modern stock market functions. How much value a company creates is at best tangential and often completely orthogonal to how much the stock is worth. The stock market has always been a Keynesian beauty contest, but in the past few decades, strongly shaped and morphed by attention economies. A good example of this is DJT, a c…

Put more simply: The stock market is not a reflection of the economy. Wall Street is not Main Street.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#56

Post by rvz »

fire_lake wrote: post #7

Fascinating. I think Meta is a big winner from this - they still control the content and now mining it for value has been proven even cheaper by DeepSeek.

Exactly this. This does not affect Meta as many people believe.

The startups that are in trouble are the ones that have been screaming for "AGI" and buying up GPUs and close-sourcing their models.

Open source was always going to win the race to the bottom. [0]

[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41671582

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#57

Post by thelastgallon »

nabla9 wrote: post #2

Nvidia -13% in Frankfurt stock market just now. Valuations of private unicorns like OpenAi and Anthropic must be in free fall. DeepSeek spends $6 million in old H800 hardware to develop open source model that overtakes ChatGPT. AI gets better, but profit margins sink with strong competition. Chinese AI startup DeepSeek overtakes ChatGPT on Apple App Store https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42839656 Edit: Nvidia now…

[flagged]

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#58

Post by dogma1138 »

Etheryte wrote: post #38
dogma1138 wrote: post #6

Good time to buy then, I don’t understand how stupid some traders can be. A more efficient model is better for NVIDIA not worse. More compute is still better given the same model. And as more efficient models proliferate it means more edge computing which means more customers with lower negotiating power than Meta and Google… This is like thinking that if people need to dig only 1 day instead of an entire month to ge…

While everything you say may be true, this shows a fundamental misunderstanding about how the modern stock market functions. How much value a company creates is at best tangential and often completely orthogonal to how much the stock is worth. The stock market has always been a Keynesian beauty contest, but in the past few decades, strongly shaped and morphed by attention economies. A good example of this is DJT, a c…

I understand that part, hence why this is very much buy the dip for me.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#59

Post by sitkack »

fire_lake wrote: post #7

Fascinating. I think Meta is a big winner from this - they still control the content and now mining it for value has been proven even cheaper by DeepSeek.

Yours is the correct take, it isn't about who did it, it was that it was done at all.

This shows how effective open source and open development can be.

Best way to get a correct answer is ... https://www.phind.com/search?cache=ws3qq1xl8hj4yx1izd5oeda0

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#60

Post by nejsjsjsbsb »

dogma1138 wrote: post #6

Good time to buy then, I don’t understand how stupid some traders can be. A more efficient model is better for NVIDIA not worse. More compute is still better given the same model. And as more efficient models proliferate it means more edge computing which means more customers with lower negotiating power than Meta and Google… This is like thinking that if people need to dig only 1 day instead of an entire month to ge…

Good time to buy is % of income via tax efficient methods into the in SP500 for most.

But I agree in the sense that Deepseek just creates more demand. Because people desire to get AI to do more work. This makes bang for buck greater opening new opportunities.

This sell off is like selling Intel in 2010 because of a new C compiler.

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