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Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

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Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#131

Post by gadders »

dogma1138 wrote: post #6

Good time to buy then, I don’t understand how stupid some traders can be. A more efficient model is better for NVIDIA not worse. More compute is still better given the same model. And as more efficient models proliferate it means more edge computing which means more customers with lower negotiating power than Meta and Google… This is like thinking that if people need to dig only 1 day instead of an entire month to ge…

>>>I don’t understand how stupid some traders can be.

I believe the saying is "The market can stay wrong for longer than you can stay solvent."

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#132

Post by rvz »

romanovcode wrote: post #69
rvz wrote: post #32

Well this is very bad for the private AI companies but Big Tech will be fine, especially Meta and Apple. Everyone else who over-leveraged into the private AI companies (Anthropic, OpenAI) are going to have their valuations under scrutiny.

What does Apple have to do with AI

Nothing. Apple (and Meta) are not directly impacted by AI even if the cost of training these AI models becomes cheaper and $0 free models get better.

It actually affects the frontier AI companies (OpenAI, Anthropic, etc) who directly make money from their closed models AND spend hundreds of millions on training these models.

Why pay $3/per million tokens (Claude 3.5 Sonnet) when DeepSeek R1 offers $0.14 / per million tokens and the model is on par with (OpenAI o1) and R1 itself is released for free?

$0 free AI models are eating closed AI models lunch.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#133

Post by baobabKoodaa »

fintechie wrote: post #40

The parallels with the dotcom bubble are clear... Tech is magical. Tech becomes cheap/free. Stock holders panic. For some time it's been clear that there's an AI bubble and this may be what finally pops it.

According to you there's a bubble in AI and this... legitimate AI research breakthrough... may be the thing that pops the bubble?

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#134

Post by ido »

Mordisquitos wrote: post #100
dogma1138 wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I understand that part, hence why this is very much buy the dip for me.

You can buy the dip if you want, as long as you're aware that you're not betting that "stupid" traders are undervaluing NVIDIA's fundamentals. Rather, you're betting that "stupid" traders will again rally NVIDIA's share price significantly above this dip, and you will be a smart trader who will know when to sell what you bought. Good luck.

And not just that, but even if AI's future is indeed as bright as the hype says (i.e. that NVIDIA's fundamentals are solid & that the market will eventually acknowledgment that after the fluctuations) they may still be wrong about the timeline.

In the .com bust you could have "bought the dip" in the early 00s right after the crash started and still taken 5 years before you weren't in the red even on "good" (in hindsight) stocks like amazon, ebay, microsoft, etc. The big hype there was eCommerce - it turned out to be true! We use eCommerce all the time now, but it took longer than predicted during the .com boom (same for broadband internet enabling "rich web experience" - it came true, but not fast enough for some hyped companies in '00).

And if you bought some of the darling stocks back then like Yahoo or Netscape that ended up not so great in hindsight you may have never recouped your losses.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#135

Post by PeterStuer »

cbg0 wrote: post #44
dogma1138 wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

NVIDIA has a P/E ratio of 56 that’s double that of the S&P 500 but half that of AMD and the same one as Meta. And whether it’s overvalued or not isn’t relevant that selling a stock because the product the company produces is now even more effective is mind bogglingly stupid.

> selling a stock because the product the company produces is now even more effective is mind bogglingly stupid. No it isn't. Investors are most likely expecting there will be less demand for Nvidia's product long-term due to these alleged increased training efficiencies.

There is afaict no inherent limit to expand on the bottom end of the market. My gut feeling is lower training costs will expand the market for hardware horizontaly far faster than any vertical scaling by a select 2 digit of mega corps could.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#136

Post by redwood »

dogma1138 wrote: post #14
diegocg wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nvidia is way too overvalued regardless of deepseek or the success of AI. This is just some correction (not even too big even considering the current bubble), these traders are not stupid.

NVIDIA has a P/E ratio of 56 that’s double that of the S&P 500 but half that of AMD and the same one as Meta. And whether it’s overvalued or not isn’t relevant that selling a stock because the product the company produces is now even more effective is mind bogglingly stupid.

This is hackernews, not some boilerroom pump n dump forum. Please use more professional language and take your confidence down a notch. Try to learn and add to the discussion.

You seem to believe that the more inference or training value per piece of tech the more demand there will be for that piece of tech full stop when there are multiple forces at play. As a simple example, you can think of this as a supply spike; while you can make the bet that the demand will follow there could be a lag on that demand spike due to the time it takes to find use cases with product/market fit. That could collapse prices over the near term which could in turn decrease revenue. As a reminder the stock value isn't a bet on whether "the gold trader" will sell more gold or not, it's a bet on whether the net future returns of the gold trader will occur in line with expectations, expectations that are sky high and have zero competition built in.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#138

Post by lm28469 »

einrealist wrote: post #3

Nice to see a pullback within this AI bubble. Wake me when I don't have to double-check the results of generative AI, even with DeepSeek.

> Wake me when I don't have to double-check the results of generative AI, even with DeepSeek

That's gonna be a looong nap

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#140

Post by [deleted] »

dogma1138 wrote: post #6

Good time to buy then, I don’t understand how stupid some traders can be. A more efficient model is better for NVIDIA not worse. More compute is still better given the same model. And as more efficient models proliferate it means more edge computing which means more customers with lower negotiating power than Meta and Google… This is like thinking that if people need to dig only 1 day instead of an entire month to ge…

[deleted]
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