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Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

finance.yahoo.com

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Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#91

Post by digitcatphd »

dogma1138 wrote: post #6

Good time to buy then, I don’t understand how stupid some traders can be. A more efficient model is better for NVIDIA not worse. More compute is still better given the same model. And as more efficient models proliferate it means more edge computing which means more customers with lower negotiating power than Meta and Google… This is like thinking that if people need to dig only 1 day instead of an entire month to ge…

This doesn't have anything to do with DS, despite what the media claims, it comes to a heightened sense of fear people have with playing with fire.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#92

Post by scotty79 »

Etheryte wrote: post #38
dogma1138 wrote: post #6

Good time to buy then, I don’t understand how stupid some traders can be. A more efficient model is better for NVIDIA not worse. More compute is still better given the same model. And as more efficient models proliferate it means more edge computing which means more customers with lower negotiating power than Meta and Google… This is like thinking that if people need to dig only 1 day instead of an entire month to ge…

While everything you say may be true, this shows a fundamental misunderstanding about how the modern stock market functions. How much value a company creates is at best tangential and often completely orthogonal to how much the stock is worth. The stock market has always been a Keynesian beauty contest, but in the past few decades, strongly shaped and morphed by attention economies. A good example of this is DJT, a c…

Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#95

Post by belter »

WithinReason wrote: post #29
dogma1138 wrote: post #6

Good time to buy then, I don’t understand how stupid some traders can be. A more efficient model is better for NVIDIA not worse. More compute is still better given the same model. And as more efficient models proliferate it means more edge computing which means more customers with lower negotiating power than Meta and Google… This is like thinking that if people need to dig only 1 day instead of an entire month to ge…

Indeed: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox In economics, the Jevons paradox occurs when technological progress increases the efficiency with which a resource is used, but the falling cost of use induces increases in demand enough that resource use is increased, rather than reduced.

I beat your Jevons paradox and raise you the Theory of Constraints..

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#97

Post by chvid »

dogma1138 wrote: post #6

Good time to buy then, I don’t understand how stupid some traders can be. A more efficient model is better for NVIDIA not worse. More compute is still better given the same model. And as more efficient models proliferate it means more edge computing which means more customers with lower negotiating power than Meta and Google… This is like thinking that if people need to dig only 1 day instead of an entire month to ge…

It is a demonstration that progress is no longer due to llm scaling.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#98

Post by larschdk »

WJW wrote: post #84
Dalewyn wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Put more simply: The stock market is not a reflection of the economy. Wall Street is not Main Street.

It's a reflection of expectations about the future economy. Obviously, such expectations are not always accurate because humans are quite fallible when trying to predict the future. This is even more true when there is a lot of hype about a certain product. Yesterdays price of (say) NVidia was based on the expectation that companies would need to buy N billion of USD of GPUs per year. Now Deepseek comes out and makes…

I think it is more expectation about expectation. You buy/sell based on whether you expect other people to expect earn or lose. It is self-referential, hence irrational. If a new play enters and peoples expectations shift, that affects your expectation of value even though the companies involved are not immediately or directly affects.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#99

Post by sschueller »

thelastgallon wrote: post #57
nabla9 wrote: post #2

Nvidia -13% in Frankfurt stock market just now. Valuations of private unicorns like OpenAi and Anthropic must be in free fall. DeepSeek spends $6 million in old H800 hardware to develop open source model that overtakes ChatGPT. AI gets better, but profit margins sink with strong competition. Chinese AI startup DeepSeek overtakes ChatGPT on Apple App Store https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42839656 Edit: Nvidia now…

[flagged]

You can ban the company but are you going to ban any US company from using the open model and running it on their own hardware [1]?

The cat is out of the bag and there is no going back.

[1] https://apxml.com/posts/gpu-requirements-deepseek-r1

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#100

Post by Mordisquitos »

dogma1138 wrote: post #58
Etheryte wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While everything you say may be true, this shows a fundamental misunderstanding about how the modern stock market functions. How much value a company creates is at best tangential and often completely orthogonal to how much the stock is worth. The stock market has always been a Keynesian beauty contest, but in the past few decades, strongly shaped and morphed by attention economies. A good example of this is DJT, a c…

I understand that part, hence why this is very much buy the dip for me.

You can buy the dip if you want, as long as you're aware that you're not betting that "stupid" traders are undervaluing NVIDIA's fundamentals. Rather, you're betting that "stupid" traders will again rally NVIDIA's share price significantly above this dip, and you will be a smart trader who will know when to sell what you bought. Good luck.
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